Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Nov. 4 20

 Summary: The sky looked to be mostly clear with small white stratus, or maybe cirrus clouds, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were calm with some moderate gusts. It felt cool during the early and mid-morning. It started to feel warm, during the late morning. It felt warm during the afternoon. It felt a little cool, during the evening and night. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops, where I was, during anytime of the day.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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109
FXUS64 KHGX 042337
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions throughout the forecast period. Some patchy fog in
the morning for the norther TAF sites but the more dense areas
should stay to the north of the flying areas. Any MVFR conditions
will quickly return to VFR in the morning between 14&15z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 244 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [through Thursday Night]...

Ridging aloft continues to shift east, resulting in slightly
warmer conditions but still pleasant. Scattered mid to high clouds
are beginning to creep in from western Texas in response to an
approaching weak upper level trough. This upper low will continue
to move eastward into our region tonight, lingering into the
weekend. Little to no precipitation is expected as forcing is weak
and moisture remains limited (PWATs around 1 inch or less through
the end of the week). Thus, increasing cloud cover will be the
main impact. With persistent southeast flow and mostly cloudy
skies, a mild night is expected with overnight lows from the mid
50s to upper 60s.

A gradual clearing is expected later on Thursday with light east
to southeast winds. With a warmer and slightly humid airmass in
place, highs will mainly range from the mid to upper 70s. 05


.LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

A sharp short wave trough over the eastern plains will dig into
TX late Thursday night and become cut-off from the main flow with
an upper level low developing over SE TX. The best moisture will
remain on the east side of this feature and PW values are progged
to remain below an inch through Saturday. The upper low becomes
elongated from NW-SE into the western Gulf on Saturday and the
associated upper level weakness will phase into the circulation
associated with Eta. Weak upper level ridging will develop in
response to the departing trough but low level moisture will
stream into the areas beneath a building cap as onshore winds
strengthen. PW values increase to around 1.60 inches by Sunday and
fcst soundings show a saturated layer between 930-770 mb with a
fairly strong cap at 700 mb. Could squeeze out some showers
beneath the cap but coverage should be sparse. A general warming
trend will be underway with overnight lows warming from the mid
50`s on Saturday to the mid 60`s on Sunday. MaxT values will be in
the mid/upper 70s on Saturday and around 80 on Sunday.

The capping inversion remains in place Monday and Tuesday and
moisture levels remain around 1.55 inches. Again, there could be
some showers on Monday but feel most areas will likely remain dry.
The upper level ridge over Texas dampens as a short wave trough
moves across the Central Plains. The flow aloft will become more
SW with a series of very weak upper level disturbances embedded in
the flow moving across East Texas. At the surface, a cold front
will move across SE TX late in the afternoon or Tuesday night with
a band of showers along the fropa. MaxT values could remain in
the lower/mid 80`s next Mon/Tue as 850 temps remain very warm with
clearing and cooler conditions expected behind next weeks front.
43


.MARINE...

Surface high pressure remains strong across the eastern CONUS
while a surface low moves over northwestern TX. This pattern will
continue to bring light east to southeast winds into the weekend.
Persistent onshore flow will result in building seas from 5-6 ft
at times Thursday night into early next week. Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution conditions for seas will be possible during this
time-frame. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible this weekend into next week with increasing moisture
and the arrival of a cold front on Tuesday. Light winds and seas
up to 3 ft are expected behind the front. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  56  78  56  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          59  78  55  78  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        68  74  64  76  65 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...43
AVIATION...35
MARINE...05

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