Summary: Stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky and maybe sometimes almost the whole sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. Light to moderate drizzle and light to heavy showers and thunderstorms were widespread across the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some moderate gusts. It felt warm, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night.
Thoughts: I experienced lots of flash flooding on the roads today traveling through the heavier rain bands from place to place.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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442 FXUS64 KHGX 272140 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 340 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020 .SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]... Widespread showers and thunderstorms spread across the area today with the most coverage occuring across the Brazos Valley eastward towards Lake Livingston. However, the bulk of the activity will shift south of I-10 through the late afternoon and into the evening as the slow moving boundary sags southward. There were quite a few breaks in the clouds in the early afternoon across the southern portion of the CWA which has brought up some higher instability. SPC Mesoanalysis has CAPE values south of I-10 in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range with effective Bulk Shear around 45kts, so the potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms that produce strong gusty winds remain a possibility this evening. The threat of urban/small stream flooding or even some flash flooding will also occur generally south of I-10 this evening where there is the highest potential for localized heavy downpours and training storms. As we get towards the late evening, the boundary may be able to push far enough south that the heaviest rains shift offshore bringing a lull in the rainfall threat. However, that lull won`t last long as a coastal low develops off the central Texas coast overnight tonight. This low, in combination with an upper level low moving in from the Four Corners region, will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region beginning in the early morning hours on Saturday through Saturday night. The rainfall on Saturday will be more stratiform in nature compared to today with less intense rainfall rates, but larger coverage. There still may be some isolated storms that produce 1-2+" per hour rainfall rates, but generally the rates will be less than 1" per hour. The ground will be a bit more saturated tomorrow due to today`s rainfall, so will need to take that into consideration when monitoring the radar. A reinforcing cold front (associated with the upper level low from the Four Corners) will move through the area tomorrow night bringing an end to the rainfall, but also usher in much cooler temperatures for Sunday onward. Fowler && .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]... Precip will be ending Sunday morning as this storm system begins moving out of the area and surface high pressure and colder air filters into the region. Guidance is still suggesting the potential for a light freeze across parts of the area (maybe a Wharton-The Woodlands-Liberty line) Mon night-Tue morning. Despite light winds and clear skies, wet grounds could end up being a limiting factor for some locations. Onshore winds resume and begin increasing Tuesday as the next storm system drops southward thru the Rockies. This will allow Gulf moisture to begin flowing back into the region with PW`s climbing into the 1.0-1.5" range ahead of the next cold front. Medium range models still have some differences in regards to the pattern details (timing, strength, etc) which will impact forecast rain chances and temps during the midweek time period. But in general, would anticipate a brief warming trend with chances of precip ahead of the front Wed or Thurs. 47 && .MARINE... A cold front will linger near the coast through Saturday with periods of unsettled weather prevailing as upper level disturbances pass overhead. A coastal low is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Texas coastal waters Saturday night. As this passes, it will drag the front well offshore. Moderate to strong offshore winds and elevated seas will then prevail into the early part of the week. Will need to monitor the potential for low water conditions in the bays late Sunday into Monday. Onshore flow will resume and increase Tuesday ahead of the next front expected toward midweek. 47 && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers still in pretty good shape, but will continue to monitor watersheds...mainly those situated across the southern half of southeast Tx, where conditions will be slightly more favorable for some localized training heavier rains. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 61 44 58 39 / 30 80 70 10 0 Houston (IAH) 63 66 50 61 43 / 70 90 90 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 68 55 62 49 / 90 90 90 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$
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