Sunday, November 29, 2020

Nov. 29 20

 Summary: White alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I believe there was a 30 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, during the morning. There may have been some light to moderate showers in and around the Houston, TX area, during the early morning. I did not see, or feel any rain drops. It felt cold, during the morning. It felt cool, during the early afternoon. It felt very cool, during the mid and late afternoon and evening. It felt cold during the early night. The wind speeds were moderate with moderately strong gusts. 

Thoughts: A really cool and breezy day. Not looking forward to the near freezing temps.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300210
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
810 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

.AVIATION...
A mix of MVFR/VFR cigs will give way to clearing skies tonight.
Winds will remain gusty tonight into Monday. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...
Strong cold air advection ongoing with overnight lows likely
dropping into the 30s and lower 40s. Downwind of the water a
little milder tonight...but there the winds will remain strong and
gusty through the night. May need to consider a Wind Advisory for
the barrier islands.

Breezy conditions continue on Monday...with winds gradually
diminishing Monday afternoon and especially Monday night as ridge
of high pressure builds in and winds slacken. These decreasing
winds and cold air mass in place will allow for radiational
cooling and our coldest overnight mins so far this season. A
Freeze Watch has been issued given the potential for freezing
temperatures for all but coastal counties.

Luchs/Reilly

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...
After the cold start on Tues, slightly warmer afternoon
temperatures are expected as onshore winds return to the region
(with the surface high shifting east). The S/SE flow will be
strengthening through the evening as the next deepening upper low
dives down into the Southern Plains. This should help draw
moisture back into the region from the Gulf, but these latest runs
appear to be less aggressive (than prior ones) with available PWs
(now peaking at/around 1.1"). However, with the progged dynamics
(combination of the upper low/trof and possible surface coastal
low), rain chances should be good across most of the CWA. The
associated cold front should move through SE TX Weds night. Of
some concern, may be the lagging upper low itself and a lingering
wrap around cloud deck/possible light precipitation. Otherwise,
will be expecting another shot of cold/dry air into the area for
the rest of the week. We`ll also have to keep an eye out for more
freezing to near freezing overnight temperatures Weds night/Thurs
morning (if we do clear out) as well as Thurs night/Fri morning.
41

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR deck behind the front is beginning to break up, but have a
very brief bit of MVFR at the sites where ceiling has been slowest
to break up at the outset. After that, focus turns to gusty
northwest winds through the rest of the forecast period.

MARINE...
No changes to the current configurations for Small Craft Advisories
as they are now in effect for all our marine waters through the over
night hours into tomorrow morning. Strong north winds to prevail as
seas/bay waters remain elevated. Conditions should improve over the
bays by tomorrow afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.
Per some of the guidance, we may be just above the thresholds for a
Low Water advisory for tomorrow/Mon afternoon.

Looking ahead, onshore winds are set to return Tues/Wed as the high
moves off to the east. Scattered activity will be possible ahead of
the next cold front that should move through the area by Wed night.
A generally moderate offshore flow is forecast to develop behind the
front and it should persist through the end of the week. 41

HYDROLOGY...

Only river flooding concern...San Bernard near Boling. Forecasts
have trended lower...now may crest near or just below flood
stage. Will continue to monitor but not planning to issue a
warning just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      36  54  32  59  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              40  54  32  61  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            45  55  44  65  61 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for the
     following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...
     Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
     Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
     Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...
     Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...
     Wharton.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following zones:
     Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
     Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...99


Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
656 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>237-300-301100-
/O.CON.KHGX.FZ.A.0001.201201T0400Z-201201T1400Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Southern Liberty-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
and Devers
656 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

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