Monday, November 16, 2020

Nov. 16 20

 Summary: The sky looked to be mostly clear with some wavy, white, and thin alto stratus clouds, I think, during the morning and maybe early and mid-afternoon. The sky looked to be clear when I was at work in the heights area, during the late afternoon. The sky continued to look clear through the late night. The wind speeds felt to be calm with some moderate gusts. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops where I was in the Houston, TX area, during the day. It felt cold, during the early morning. It felt very cool, during the mid-morning and night. It felt cool, during the late morning, afternoon, and evening. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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461
FXUS64 KHGX 162327
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions are expected through the period with clear skies
and light to moderate NE to E winds. Winds become light and
variable tonight, then winds near 8 to 15 kts are expected Tuesday
afternoon. Higher gusts expected at KGLS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 404 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020/...


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...
High pressure continues to dominate the weather with dry air the
main subject. Large diurnal temperature range due to the dry air
and full sun. Highs 72-around 80 with lows starting the period on
the cool side. Tonight`s lows in the upper 30s to around 40
inland...mid to upper 40s in the Metro and upper 50s to lower 60s
on the coast. These should start the climb as both the easterly
flow increases slightly on Tuesday over the Gulf then starts to
slowly veer going into Thursday/Friday with the associated
increase in low level moisture. Wouldn`t rule out some patchy
radiation fog out west as early as Thursday morning.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
RH values increasing with the moist onshore flow and this weekend
expect rain chances to start increasing. Guidance indicates the
demise of the upper ridging and an approaching upper trough late
Sunday into Monday. Rain chances should start to increase Saturday
night through Monday. Currently expecting a cold front to cross
SETX Monday though the timing could shift 12-18 hours either. Some
of the guidance is hinting a more potent front boundary and
surface low setup for the middle of next week.
45


.MARINE...
ENE and NE winds have relaxed slightly and the SCEC has come down.
Expect winds to increase again Tuesday and will likely need
another SCEC. Surface ridging over SETX slowly retreats this week
and easterly flow gradually veers to the southeast by Friday. This
should maintain the seas in the range of 2-4 nearshore, 3-5
offshore. Some increase in tide levels should be more apparent by
Thursday and Friday but not to the point of beach flooding issues
though could get into some enhanced/stronger rip currents. Surge
of deeper moisture overspreads the region late Saturday into
Sunday and this could bringing an increased chance for showers.


.FIRE WEATHER...
The dry weather will continue and expect another very dry day
again Tuesday then slowly start moistening up. Moderate recovery
tonight and probably again Tuesday night. Winds will be light out
of the east and northeast Tuesday and Wednesday then more east and
southeasterly with improving conditions. Some rainfall possible
late in the weekend into Monday with the next cold front.
45


.TROPICAL...
Really don`t want to talk about this...
Hurricane Iota Category 5 with 160 mph winds is near the coast of
Nicaragua and should make landfall shortly as it moves west then
continue generally westward. No threat for SETX with Iota. A
second system is being monitored by NHC for development in the
Central Caribbean in few days.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  40  74  44  77  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          44  74  49  76  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        61  72  64  74  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...45
AVIATION...05
MARINE...45
FIRE WEATHER...45
TROPICAL...45

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