Sunday, July 16, 2017

July. 15 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-morning.

Summary: The day was mostly wet, mostly cloudy, and calm. A cluster of thunderstorms started around the east Houston, TX area, during the morning and then spread on into the whole Houston, TX area, during the mid-afternoon and continued on through the early evening. Only a few light to moderate showers were still around, during the late evening and night. I started to see rain, during the mid-afternoon and stopped seeing rain, during the early evening. Stratocumulus clouds looked to be widely scattered across the sky, during the morning and early afternoon. Stratus, stratocumulus, and nimbus clouds looked to cover most, if not the whole sky, during the mid and late afternoon and evening. Cirro stratus clouds looked to cover mos to the sky, during the night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some gentle to moderate gusts, except during the passing of the thunderstorms, where the wind gusts were moderately strong to strong. It felt warm during the early morning, mid and late afternoon, evening, and night. It felt very warm during the mid-morning. It felt hot during the late morning. It felt really hot, during the early afternoon. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Houston, TX area, issued by NOAA with flood advisories, severe thunderstorm warnings, and special weather statements. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the low to mid 90's, for the Houston, TX area.

Storm Summary: There was some high wind gusts reported with some flash flooding. I didn't hear about any storm damage, or tornadoes. The thunderstorms were fast moving. They started to pop up all over the Houston, TX radar, during the mid-afternoon and continued on through the early evening, before dissipating.

My Storm Summary: I started to see dark clouds, during the early afternoon in George Bush Park. The clouds got darker as I was pedaling towards the Beltway 8 bridge on the Terry Hershey Bike Trail. I started to see some scary looking dark clouds and lightning as I was exiting the parking lot of Terry Hershey Park, during the mid-afternoon. The rain was light at first, then became really heavy as I got nearer to my home in northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon. I could see lightning and heard loud rumbles of thunder when I got home, during the mid-afternoon. The rain continued to pound through the early evening, before completely leaving by the late evening. I didn't see any more rain, or see any more lighting, or hear any thunder after that. I saw some minor flash flooding, but didn't see any damages, or tornadoes. My houses power stayed on. The thunderstorm near Terry Hershey Park looked like it was going to produce a tornado, when I left, during the mid-afternoon.

Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.

Thoughts: I am glad that I decided to stop riding my bike when I did, because it started to pour! That was fun/scary driving through the really heavy rain. I really enjoy driving through heavy rain. My favorite.

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 160225

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
925 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Convection continuing to move off to the SW this evening with
skies slowly clearing in its wake. Did make some minor tweaks
with the the overnight forecast, mainly to account for the el-
evated PWs and likelihood of redevelopment overnight with the
next s/wv moving in from the NE. 41


.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 412 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/

The combination of a passing of a weak upper level disturbance
over a lower level boundary between the Sabine River Valley and
Galveston Bay...all within a very moist unstable tropical air
mass...lit the fuse to a very active day of clustering showers and
storms. Discrete cells galore moving at around 20-25 mph to the
southwest within the northeasterly steering flow. As has been the
case this month...downstream cell propagation has not been impeded
by rain-cooled air put out by earlier activity. Although many of
these discrete cells have not reached severe thresholds...the
majority of them have produced high instantaneous rain rates that
have led to radar-estimated 1 to 2 inch per hour amounts with
their passing. Many Houston area guages have picked up between
near an inch to around 2.5 inches of rain in the past 6 hours.
Wind gusts of around 40 mph have been recorded...nuisance flooding
of roadways and one report of a lightning injury in Montgomery
County. Thinking is that once this shortwave disturbance rotating
around Intermountain West ridging passes west-southwest of the
region this evening...activity will come to a close with the
setting sun. Any lingering thunderstorms will likely be focused
over the coastal counties and points offshore within the Gulf.

This wet pattern will be hanging on through early next week. An
inverted trough will be forming in the height field just south of
Plains ridging and eastern CONUS troughing tomorrow. This will
will promote a regeneration of regional storm activity. High PW
air of between 1.9 to 2.1 inches with (over) 7 deg C sfc-3 km
lapse rates and 86-89F convective temperatures all lean this
forecast more wet than dry through mid-July. All of the ingredients
are in place for return periods of rain and thunder...with early
day coastal development leading to late morning through early
evening inland county action. The resident air mass is moist and
unstable enough to support ordinary thunderstorm initiation and
development that will exhibit slow storm motion within a weakly-
sheared column. Models advect in early work week higher PVA within
easterly flow underneath an eastward expanding Southern Plains
ridge. With little to no change in the regional thermo-moisture
profile...all that is required will be a little lift to (re)generate
discrete cells capable of producing bursts of lightning...winds
to 40 mph in gusts...funnels or weak tornadoes and 1 to near 3
inch per hour rain amounts within the strongest cells. Generally...
early day Gulf activity will begin over the maritime and then
fester further inland through the daytime morning hours. Dependent
upon what the early day activity spits in the form of outflow
boundaries will determine where afternoon convection blossoms
and clustering will center.

The only mentionable item in the extended will be that upper
ridging will envelop the southeastern U.S. at week`s close. This
particular height pattern will only reinforce a lower-middle
level flow pattern that would bring northern Gulf disturbances
right into eastern Texas. 12Z Global models show no hint of any
type of Gulf tropical activity. The theme word will continue to
remain `unsettled` with return bouts of daytime showers and
thunderstorms...a degree or two fluctuation in the diurnal
temperature field. 31


College Station (CLL)      77  95  75  93  75 /  20  40  20  70  30
Houston (IAH)              75  92  76  91  76 /  20  50  20  80  40
Galveston (GLS)            81  89  80  88  80 /  40  40  30  70  50




Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
434 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Galveston Bay-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-
Madison-Matagorda-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-
434 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through this evening. Some of these storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Storm coverage should
decrease late this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Sunday. Some of these
storms could be strong and produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds.


Spotter activity may be needed Sunday.


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