Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.
Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and dry. Maybe some rain. I didn't get a chance to look at the Houston, TX radar. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Alto stratus, stratus, and stratocumulus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with maybe some moderately strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and late evening. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning and night. It felt hot, during the late morning. It felt hot, almost very hot, during the early and mid-afternoon. It felt hot, becoming very warm, during the late afternoon. It felt hot, or maybe very warm, during the early evening. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and 80's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.
Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damage, that I know of.
My Storm Summary: I started to see some dark stratus and stratocumulus clouds, sometime during the late afternoon, I think and stopped seeing them, sometime during the early evening, I think. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any flooding, wet roads, or storm damage. I didn't hear any thunder, or see any lightning.
Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.
Thoughts: Well it looks like a tropical system getting close and maybe even causing some damage to the Houston, TX area is a good possibility this weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 230322 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1022 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .DISCUSSION... Short term...Storms have dissipated and skies clearing out so should be quiet warm night across the area. Showers redeveloping after midnight offshore and eventually spreading inland around sunrise or shortly after. Minor tweaks to the current forecast with this update. Longer term with the tropics...Remnant low level circulation of Harvey sitting right on the shoreline on the NW corner of Yucatan peninsula and should drift off overnight. NAM (notoriously bad in the extended periods) showing the very favorable development environment which the other models from earlier today also point to so hard to argue with that. Overall we are still in a dust off the hurricane plan-flip to your checklist and make sure it is ready to implement given the current track forecasts which bring the impacts (very heavy rainfall 7+/surge/winds) from the system to TX. Very concerning is the slow movement and possible meanderings in or around SETX over the weekend into Tuesday which could lead to a couple of core rain events. There could be some extreme rain amounts if it does in fact reach into the area and meander around for days and nights. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ AVIATION... Isolated daytime showers continue to dissipate early this evening with dry conditions expected at the terminal overnight. However, water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning over the northwest Gulf this evening and if this feature wobbles farther to the west tonight as afternoon guidance indicated, a few pre-dawn SHRA or even TSRA will be possible along the coast (possibly impacting Galveston). Have left out of TAF for now due to low confidence but may need to be included with the 06Z update. Daytime heating will again result in isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing near Conroe/ the Houston terminals and points south by early afternoon, with an approaching frontal boundary looking to result in a second round of SHRA near College Station and Huntsville late in the TAF period. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with variable winds less than 8 knots through the period. Huffman PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/ DISCUSSION... Not much convective coverage this afternoon as the drier air mass residing over southeastern Texas seems to have won out...highest moisture still remains centered over extreme southeastern Texas. When an isolated shower does form along one of the numerous meso- breezes it quickly becomes outflow dominant and fizzes out. Surface analysis depicts a Southern Plains boundary sliding down into central OK this afternoon. This boundary is forecast to sink further south into the Piney Woods/Eastern Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Thus...another focus point for which warmth-of-the- day showers and thunderstorms could develop. Overnight minimums will not surprisingly fall much...inland middle 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Low end chance POPS for any short lived -TSRA tomorrow during the day with the highest probs occurring across the coastal and second tier counties. Maximum temperatures in the mean middle 90s (upper 90s across the far interior) will equate to maximum heat indices in the 102 to 106 F range. The buzz around the re-development of Harvey is ramping up today as can be expected with the deterministic suite coming into better alignment through Days 3 thorough 5. While confidence remains low until the wave crosses back into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow and re-forms and possibly re-forms a closed off low...the suite all agree to deepen the system to at least a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane and track it towards the lower to middle Texas coastline from tomorrow night through Friday morning. Once this system makes landfall Friday or Saturday the slow storm movement will place high rainfall-leading-to-flooding the main threat with gusty (sub)tropical storm force winds a secondary threat. Our message is 4 to 8 inches of widespread rainfall from Friday through early Tuesday with localized amounts of between 8 to 16 inches (double widespread) being a reasonable possibility per the slow storm movement. Granted Harvey is not regained the shadow of his former self as of this writing but it is hard ignore that every deterministic solution likes this "signal" of a landfalling TC along the Texas coastline by this weekend. The main con to formation...or to play devil`s advocate to just jumping on the model train...would be the amount of dry air that the system will be ingesting going into Thursday. W/V imagery does show quite a bit of mid-upper dry air moving into the southern Bay of Campeche and this could be a major inhibitor for development. The two main pros for Harvey making it a bad week for us will be the fact that (1) this wave is moving into a height and wind weakness channel carved out by the western Gulf inverted trough between the Great Basin and Bermuda ridges and (2) sea surface temperatures over the western Gulf are currently between 85 and 88 F (based on the buoy data). Although we may want to get caught up in the potential specifics of this storm this may be a great time to begin the preparedness message and focus on the impacts...do you have your hurricane preparedness plan in place and can you enact this plan within the next couple of days? 31 MARINE... Light winds and low seas are expected to continue through Wednesday. Should begin to see swells from the tropical system over the Yucatan by slowly increase by late Wednesday into Thursday. There is considerable uncertainty as to the development and eventual landfall of the system. The latest models develop the system back into Harvey with landfall somewhere on the southern Texas coastline sometime late Friday. If this scenario pans out, high seas and strong winds will affect the upper Texas coastal waters at least late Thursday into Saturday morning. Tides along the coast could become a problem as early as Thursday afternoon and night given the swells and strong onshore winds. The latest models show the potential for actual tide levels to reach or exceed 3 feet for the high tide times either Thursday night or Friday morning. Mariners are urged to closely monitor the latest forecasts through the weekend. 40 College Station (CLL) 76 98 76 95 76 / 10 30 30 40 40 Houston (IAH) 77 95 77 94 77 / 10 30 20 40 40 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 83 91 82 / 20 30 20 40 50 HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. $$ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 98 76 95 76 / 10 30 30 40 40 Houston (IAH) 76 95 77 94 77 / 10 30 20 40 40 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 83 91 82 / 20 30 20 40 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...45
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 546 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226- 227-235>238-231100- Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers- Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM- Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Galveston Bay-Grimes-Harris-Houston- Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-Matagorda Bay-Montgomery-Polk- San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington- Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM- Wharton- 546 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Although heat index values are not expected to be quite as high with cloud cover and rain chances increasing, heat index values ranging from 101 to 105 can still be expected today. This can still be dangerous if engaging in outside activities. Please use caution when working outside and drink plenty of water. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor tropical disturbance #1 which consists of the remnants of tropical system Harvey. Higher rainfall amounts along with stronger winds and seas, could be possible between Thursday and Sunday depending on the intensity and track of this system. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. $$
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