Sunday, August 13, 2017

Aug. 13 17

(Sorry no pictures today. I forgot!)


Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and dry. There were no storms, or showers anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, that I know of. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds with maybe some alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with maybe some occasional moderately strong to really strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning and late evening. It felt hot, during the late morning and early evening. It felt very hot, during the afternoon. There was a Heat Advisory issued for the Houston, TX area and a Hazardous Weather Outllook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: More hot weather ahead with little relief.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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966
FXUS64 KHGX 140020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.AVIATION...
Quiet radar this evening. The eastern passage of a shortwave
disturbance across northeastern Texas is currently sparking
convection about 75 miles northeast of UTS this evening. Short
range high resolution models keep this activity well off to the
northeast and dissipate it across northern Louisiana Monday
morning. 3-5 hours of near sunrise lower MVFR decks across the
northern hubs...VFR elsewhere. Persistent southwest becoming
southerly flow wind pattern with few-sct VFR cu field forming
from 14 through 18Z. Surge of slightly higher moisture moving in
from the western Gulf along and behind the inland-advancing sea
breeze boundary has VCSH in around metro during the mid to late
afternoon hours. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms possible across the far northern
areas this afternoon as an upper disturbance moves through.

Hot weather will be the norm this week as high pressure tends to
dominate our weather pattern. Afternoon temperatures climbing to
the mid to upper 90s each afternoon inland will combine with the
onshore flow of moisture to boost the heat index into the 103-109
degree range. Slightly cooler conditions may develop Saturday as
ridging may weaken.

Galveston got to 111 heat index earlier this afternoon with other
inland sites 103 to 108 at 3 pm. Another heat advisory may be
needed again for Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday could be slightly
cooler if showers and thunderstorms develop across the southern
areas as depth of richer low level moisture increases on slightly
stronger southerly flow (and mixing). Rain chance still look
relatively low in the 20-40 percent range Tue and Wed.

Guidances in general is consistent with ridging remaining over the
area and then by Saturday diverge with the placement and strength
of the ridge. ECMWF breaks down the western end of the ridge over
CA/NV/AZ maintaining the ridging over AZ/TX which could allow for
greater rain chances and cooler weather...while the GFS solution
slides the ridge eastward parking it overhead which would maintain
the heat and lower rain chances. Currently favoring the GFS
solution with low pops and continued above normal temperatures and
unfortunately heat index readings.

Tropics...
Newly upgraded tropical storm Gert recurves over the Atlantic and
poses no threat to SETX. Another tropical disturbance in the east
central Atlantic is forecast to move west and could become an
issue for the Gulf or Western Sargasso Sea a week from
Wednesday...so still way to early to do anything other than
monitor it.
45

MARINE...
An increasing pressure gradient between Gulf high pressure and
Plains low pressure will boost wind speeds tonight and into the
midweek. Each night, expect caution level winds for small craft to
be reached, with gradually building waves following behind. In the
back half of the week, the high will gradually come more into
control, allowing winds to modestly diminish. As the Gulf high
wobbles about through the week, as well as with subtle diurnal
effects, the winds may vary from southeasterly to southwesterly, but
that base southerly state will be persistent. This persistence will
help keep tides above astronomical norms by roughly half a foot.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  98  77  97  78 /   0  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)              79  96  79  95  79 /   0  10  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            83  92  83  91  83 /  10  10  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from midnight CDT tonight
     through Monday morning for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
     to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
     from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
318 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

TXZ210>214-226-227-235>238-142030-
Austin-Brazoria-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-
Jackson-Matagorda-Waller-Wharton-
318 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon. High temperatures
in the mid 90s this afternoon coupled with high humidity levels
will produce heat index values between 103 and 110 degrees.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Very warm temperatures will persist for the next seven days. Heat
index values will range from 103 to 109 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

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