Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Aug. 9 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.

Summary: The day was very warm, dry, and sunny. There were maybe some isolated showers and thunderstorms in and around the Houston, TX area, but I don't remember seeing any. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds with maybe maybe some alto stratus clouds, looked to be scattered to sometimes widely scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some gentle to moderate gusts. It felt warm, during the morning, late evening, and night. It felt very warm, almost hot, during the early and maybe mid-afternoon. It felt hot, during the late afternoon and early evening. There was a Flood Advisory, or maybe Statement, or Watch issued, for the Houston, TX area, for today, through 8 am. There was also a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.

Storm Summary: There were no reports of new flooding in the Houston, TX area, but there may have still been some flooding going on from yesterday's rain. There were no reports of storm damage.

Locations: Northwest Houston, TX

Thoughts: Well back to the hot weather.

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 100157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
857 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Today`s showers/thunderstorms have dissipated. The rest of the night
should be rain free for much of the area except near/along the coast
and offshore where some showers and/or thunderstorms could develop
and edge inland before or shortly after sunrise.  42

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017/

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the period across
all TAF sites. Winds should be light overnight mainly out of the
north/northwest becoming variable in direction at times. There is
the potential for lowered vis during the early morning hours,
similar to what was seen last night. Currently have CXO and LBX
lowering to 5SM, but IAH and SGR could also see slightly lower
visibilities during the 10-12Z time frame. Although the forecast
soundings and SREF guidance was also pegging SGR/IAH with slightly
lower vis, not confident enough at this time to add this to the
TAF. Late morning around 15Z along the coast and early afternoon
19Z further inland, expecting shower and thunderstorm development
with largest coverage during peak heating hours. Based off the
forecast soundings, PWs could range between 1.9-2.3 inches and
winds could become gusty below stronger storms. Convection should
diminish becoming more isolated by sunset tomorrow evening.



Persistent low pressure center was ill-defined on late afternoon
surface analysis, but satellite imagery indicates circulation
remaining over e-central Tx. Scattered showers should remain
focused nearer this feature across the northeastern counties,
with secondary area along stalled surface front near and just
inland of the central TX coast. Expect shower/tstm activity will
diminish after sunset.

All in all, ridging will become established and hold through the
forecast cycle. Models continue to focus return of showers/tstms
tomorrow associated with sea breeze as sely low level flow becomes
established and deep moisture aids in destabilization. Have kept
general 30-40 PoPs in place for all but the far north to account
for this potential. Friday may once again bring scattered sea-
breeze storms into play. However, rain chances will generally
lower through the weekend. Large scale pattern suggest we could
warm up quite a bit into the weekend/early next week under this
ridge. However, moist ground will hold humidity fairly high and
keep things quite muggy but perhaps hold temps from spiking.
Regardless, return to more normal August weather looks to be in
the forecast starting this weekend with forecast heat indicies in
the 104-108f range and max temps in the mid 90s away from the
immediate coast.


Light offshore winds are continuing across the area this afternoon
as the upper level disturbance lingers near the TX/LA border. This
feature is still expected to weaken/dissipate tonight with onshore
winds returning by tomorrow. This generally light to moderate S/SE
flow should persist the next few days. Swells propagating into the
coastal waters (per Franklin in the Bay of Campeche) and seas will
increase to 4 to 7 feet offshore late tonight into Thursday. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed across the offshore waters by early
Thursday. Looking ahead...the next storm system is progged to move
into Southern Plains during the latter part of the weekend. Streng-
thening onshore winds will be possible at that time. 41


College Station (CLL)      75  96  76  96  77 /  10  20  10  20   0
Houston (IAH)              76  92  78  93  78 /  20  40  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  88  82  89  82 /  30  40  10  30   0





Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
452 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-
San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-Wharton-
452 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The Flash Flood Watch has been canceled. Scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Some
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms, but
any flooding impacts should be relatively short-lived and minor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heat index values will climb back into the 102-107 degree range
this weekend. Please use caution when working outside and drink
plenty of water.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


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