Sunday, August 6, 2017

Aug. 6 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the mid-afternoon.

Katy, TX, during the late afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the early evening.
Cypress, TX, during the early evening.

Summary: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and mostly wet. Moderately heavy to heavy showers and thunderstorms started to pop up in and around the Houston, TX area, during the early afternoon and lasted through the late evening. A moderately heavy to heavy shower with some possible thunder passed over my house, during the early afternoon and a heavy thunderstorm passed over my house, during the mid-afternoon. I saw light rain in Katy, Cypress, and northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening. I didn't see anymore rain after that. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds with some nimbus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the afternoon and evening. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds still looked to cover most of the sky, during the night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some moderately strong gusts. It felt warm, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was also issued. There were no other watches, warnings, advisories, alerts, weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.

Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damages, that I know of.

My Storm Summary: I didn't witness any flooding, just wet roads and a few small puddles. I didn't see any storm damage.

Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, Cypress, TX, and Katy, TX.

Thoughts: Well it wasn't supposed to rain today, but I was happy to see the rain.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Southeast Texas
today. Some of these thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Texas Monday and Tuesday. Some of these
thunderstorms may be capable of brief heavy rainfall.


Spotter activation will not be needed.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

FXUS64 KHGX 070124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
824 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

After some storms - some rather feisty, prompting a severe
thunderstorm warning - earlier this afternoon, the radar shows
only a few remnant sprinkles in the area late this evening. As
such, have pretty significantly trimmed back PoPs through the
first part of the night while tweaking temperatures and dewpoints
for observations, as rain cooled things off slightly more quickly
this evening.

Attention now turns to the MCS over North Texas. The HRRR seems
pretty off on intensity, and roughly an hour behind on timing.
This is not particularly surprising as the model often seems to
propagate MCSs too slowly, severely impacting timing forecasts at
longer range. So, what is progged to reach our northern areas,
including College Station, around 4 or 5 am, may be sooner.
Because of this, went above guidance on PoPs for the latter half
of the night. This blends pretty closely with FWD and SHV to our
north. While intensity is not a particularly big concern, there
could be a marginal threat for strong to severe wind gusts up
north while the low level jet is tangential to the line until it
weakens and veers towards sunrise.

Despite the buzz on social media, sharknado threat for Southeast
Texas will be nil tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/

Quiet and VFR this evening at area TAF sites as daytime activity
continues to dissipate. Eyes turn to our N and NW as north Texas
SHRA/TSRA and associated boundaries work their way closer to our
area later tonight and on into tomorrow morning and potentially
bring MVFR ceilings/visibilities to the area. Generally expecting
S winds under 10 knots tonight and around 10 knots tomorrow
outside of the storms.  42


A weakness in the subtropical ridge will continue to allow
westerly upper level shortwave troughs to bring good chances for
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast Texas on Monday and
Tuesday. By Wednesday the models show the ridge of high pressure
drifting northward and building into the area; although, with
still a weakness in the ridge overhead. This ridge will likely
continue to build overhead through the end of the week. Early next
week there are indications that the center of the ridge will
weaken enough for either a westerly upper level system to dig down
into the Southern Plains or an easterly wave to move into the
Upper Texas coastal waters. Or, there will be a combination of

The scattered thunderstorms occurring this afternoon should
diminish in coverage by early this evening. Overnight tonight do
expect chances to increase once again, especially over the
northern counties as the frontal boundary over the Red River
Valley drifts southward. An upper level shortwave trough will then
help enhance the rain chances areawide on Monday. CAPE values
around 4100 and PWs near 2.3 inches show the potential for
isolated strong storms with some potential also for locally heavy
rainfall. The models keep the weakness and shear axis aloft on
Tuesday, leading to continued chances for rain and thunderstorms.
Forecast PWs continued near 2.3 inches; however, forecast CAPE
values were lower--about 2.1 inches--and sounding showed a more
skinny CAPE profile.

Rain chances will diminish during the mid and latter part of the
week as the ridge builds overhead with least chances Thursday
through Saturday. This should lead to slightly higher daytime
temperatures and for the heat index to reach into the 104 to 107
degree range each day from Thursday through Sunday. On Sunday rain
and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase once again.

The SCEC has been extended for nearshore and offshore waters
until 12Z tomorrow morning as south winds should continue in the
15 to 20 knot range with seas running 3 to 4 feet. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue primarily during
the morning hours over the coastal waters through the first half
of the upcoming week.

Mariners should continue to monitor the progress of a tropical
disturbance as it moves westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and
into the Bay of Campeche towards the middle of the week. This
disturbance will likely remain well to our south, increased swell
could begin impacting the offshore waters as early as Wednesday.



College Station (CLL)      78  91  75  92  75 /  50  70  60  50  40
Houston (IAH)              80  91  77  90  76 /  30  60  40  60  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  90  81  89  81 /  30  40  30  50  20


     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.




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