Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and windy. Not much rain. I saw a few isolated light and moderate showers in and around the Houston, TX area, on the TWC radar, during the early evening. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the early morning. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to have started to become scattered across the sky, sometime during the late, or maybe mid-morning and continued to be scattered across the sky through the afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The sky might have become clear, or maybe mostly clear, during the early night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with maybe some really strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning and late evening. It felt hot, during the late morning and early evening. It felt very hot, during the afternoon. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and 80's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.
Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damages, that I know of.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.
Thoughts: Will Houston, TX ever see rain again... It has been almost a week since the last time that I saw rain.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 142357
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.AVIATION...
Other than some (vicinity) thunder in and around CXO this
evening...VFR will prevail through the sunrise hour. Periodic
short-lived MVFR ceilings over far interior hubs...scattering out
to a FEW-SCT cumulus field tomorrow afternoon. An analogous
scenario with light onshore winds and isolated late day shower
activity. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
DISCUSSION...
The main driver of the forecast over the next several days appears
to be the strength and location of ridging aloft, which will nudge
temperatures modestly up or down, and determining whether there will
be potential for scattered showers and storms, or a more suppressed
atmosphere. Day to day changes will likely be rather small into the
weekend, with only subtle changes. Thus, the focus will almost
certainly continue to be the characteristic hot, humid summer of
Southeast Texas.
Luchs
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Through 2 pm, the radar has been pretty quiet, outside of a couple
isolated showers in Liberty County. Though some subtle features
could be seen in the low level GOES-16 water vapor imagery,
subsidence under the ridge appears to largely be winning out,
except in the vicinity of Galveston Bay (which likely explains the
isolated showers in Liberty County). Meanwhile, after a fast
start, temperature rises this afternoon have leveled out somewhat.
The idea of a hot, humid day that sees the heat index near the
coast top out just below heat advisory thresholds still seems
safe.
This evening, any showers that do manage to initiate today should
wind down very quickly. However, despite the loss of solar heating,
temperatures aren`t likely to go into a tailspin. With overnight
dewpoints in the middle 70s to around 80, low temperatures tonight
will again be very warm. Houston, Hobby Airport, and Galveston are
all currently at least tied for their record warm mins today, and
though it may be close, there`s a strong chance all of them hold on.
SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The upper ridge looks to briefly weaken Tuesday, and both the GFS
and Euro suggest some subtle midlevel vorticity slides across
Southeast Texas. But don`t want to sell out too hard on PoPs, as the
NAM modestly lowers heights, but doesn`t show any vort lobes and as
a consequence looks pretty dry. Put the highest PoPs in that subtle
Galveston/Gulf seabreeze convergence zone, which may benefit most
from the lower heights aloft. Temperatures may be a touch (read: a
degree or two) cooler, but with such a brief, modest change in the
column and such a warm start to the day, there should be little to
no change in temps.
After that, look for things to settle back down Wednesday as ridging
attempts to build in yet again from the east. Again, we`re only
looking for modest changes in heights and surface pattern, so
changes will be minimal, but may ultimately lock in Tuesday as the
best potential for rain, as Wednesday backs down to isolated or
widely scattered development.
Both days again look to have heat index values that are on the
fringe of the heat advisory threshold again. Whether an advisory
is necessary will likely depend on sky cover and the state of
boundary layer moisture, determining if dewpoints will mix out or
stay high enough to boost the heat index past 108. Both aspects
are very difficult to forecast from much range, so it seems calls
on any advisories will be a day to day call. Expect this trend to
continue through the week.
LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
Pretty good agreement in the guidance for a 595-ish midlevel high
stacked over a surface high to develop over the northern Gulf
coast and drift westward late in the week. This seems likely to
clamp down on rainfall potential pretty well for the late week,
with only modestly better potential this weekend on the backside
of the high. Another thing to watch for this weekend that`s
emerged in the 12Z guidance is a TUTT moving across the Gulf
behind this ridge. This may help to boost rainfall potential by
lowering heights and increasing vorticity advection over the
region. However, this is a relative newcomer with this morning`s
model runs and we`re looking nearly a week out, so it`s probably
best not to commit too much to a specific scenario.
Though a ridge in the area of 595 dm isn`t astoundingly strong by
the area`s standards, we should see response in temperatures from
subsident warming over time as it moves slowly along. It may not be
quite as apparent near the coast with the moderating water, but do
introduce isolated triple digit temps in the northwest towards
College Station late in the work week.
AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Most recent model runs are indicating little SHRA/TSRA coverage this
afternoon, but with high temperatures possibly getting a degree or
two warmer than yesterday decided to keep the VCSH already in some
of the area TAFs. Otherwise, VFR with S to SW winds around 10 knots
this afternoon and 5 to 10 knots tonight. Could see some low cloud
(mainly MVFR) development around the CLL and UTS areas toward
morning.
Similar conditions during the day tomorrow with maybe slightly better
SHRA/TSRA chances. 42
MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds (mainly from the south) will persist for the
next several days with caution level speeds expected during the
overnight hours. Winds will gradually weaken toward the end of the
week and over the weekend. 42
CLIMATE...
Houston Hobby is on track to break a record high min temp today.
Low so far is 81, record is 80 (2015). Both Galveston and City of
Houston (IAH) are on track to tie their previous records.
Galveston with 84 in 2010 and Houston with 81 in 1951.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 99 78 98 78 / 0 10 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 80 95 81 94 81 / 10 40 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 90 85 89 85 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...31
Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damages, that I know of.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.
Thoughts: Will Houston, TX ever see rain again... It has been almost a week since the last time that I saw rain.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 142357
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.AVIATION...
Other than some (vicinity) thunder in and around CXO this
evening...VFR will prevail through the sunrise hour. Periodic
short-lived MVFR ceilings over far interior hubs...scattering out
to a FEW-SCT cumulus field tomorrow afternoon. An analogous
scenario with light onshore winds and isolated late day shower
activity. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
DISCUSSION...
The main driver of the forecast over the next several days appears
to be the strength and location of ridging aloft, which will nudge
temperatures modestly up or down, and determining whether there will
be potential for scattered showers and storms, or a more suppressed
atmosphere. Day to day changes will likely be rather small into the
weekend, with only subtle changes. Thus, the focus will almost
certainly continue to be the characteristic hot, humid summer of
Southeast Texas.
Luchs
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Through 2 pm, the radar has been pretty quiet, outside of a couple
isolated showers in Liberty County. Though some subtle features
could be seen in the low level GOES-16 water vapor imagery,
subsidence under the ridge appears to largely be winning out,
except in the vicinity of Galveston Bay (which likely explains the
isolated showers in Liberty County). Meanwhile, after a fast
start, temperature rises this afternoon have leveled out somewhat.
The idea of a hot, humid day that sees the heat index near the
coast top out just below heat advisory thresholds still seems
safe.
This evening, any showers that do manage to initiate today should
wind down very quickly. However, despite the loss of solar heating,
temperatures aren`t likely to go into a tailspin. With overnight
dewpoints in the middle 70s to around 80, low temperatures tonight
will again be very warm. Houston, Hobby Airport, and Galveston are
all currently at least tied for their record warm mins today, and
though it may be close, there`s a strong chance all of them hold on.
SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The upper ridge looks to briefly weaken Tuesday, and both the GFS
and Euro suggest some subtle midlevel vorticity slides across
Southeast Texas. But don`t want to sell out too hard on PoPs, as the
NAM modestly lowers heights, but doesn`t show any vort lobes and as
a consequence looks pretty dry. Put the highest PoPs in that subtle
Galveston/Gulf seabreeze convergence zone, which may benefit most
from the lower heights aloft. Temperatures may be a touch (read: a
degree or two) cooler, but with such a brief, modest change in the
column and such a warm start to the day, there should be little to
no change in temps.
After that, look for things to settle back down Wednesday as ridging
attempts to build in yet again from the east. Again, we`re only
looking for modest changes in heights and surface pattern, so
changes will be minimal, but may ultimately lock in Tuesday as the
best potential for rain, as Wednesday backs down to isolated or
widely scattered development.
Both days again look to have heat index values that are on the
fringe of the heat advisory threshold again. Whether an advisory
is necessary will likely depend on sky cover and the state of
boundary layer moisture, determining if dewpoints will mix out or
stay high enough to boost the heat index past 108. Both aspects
are very difficult to forecast from much range, so it seems calls
on any advisories will be a day to day call. Expect this trend to
continue through the week.
LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
Pretty good agreement in the guidance for a 595-ish midlevel high
stacked over a surface high to develop over the northern Gulf
coast and drift westward late in the week. This seems likely to
clamp down on rainfall potential pretty well for the late week,
with only modestly better potential this weekend on the backside
of the high. Another thing to watch for this weekend that`s
emerged in the 12Z guidance is a TUTT moving across the Gulf
behind this ridge. This may help to boost rainfall potential by
lowering heights and increasing vorticity advection over the
region. However, this is a relative newcomer with this morning`s
model runs and we`re looking nearly a week out, so it`s probably
best not to commit too much to a specific scenario.
Though a ridge in the area of 595 dm isn`t astoundingly strong by
the area`s standards, we should see response in temperatures from
subsident warming over time as it moves slowly along. It may not be
quite as apparent near the coast with the moderating water, but do
introduce isolated triple digit temps in the northwest towards
College Station late in the work week.
AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Most recent model runs are indicating little SHRA/TSRA coverage this
afternoon, but with high temperatures possibly getting a degree or
two warmer than yesterday decided to keep the VCSH already in some
of the area TAFs. Otherwise, VFR with S to SW winds around 10 knots
this afternoon and 5 to 10 knots tonight. Could see some low cloud
(mainly MVFR) development around the CLL and UTS areas toward
morning.
Similar conditions during the day tomorrow with maybe slightly better
SHRA/TSRA chances. 42
MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds (mainly from the south) will persist for the
next several days with caution level speeds expected during the
overnight hours. Winds will gradually weaken toward the end of the
week and over the weekend. 42
CLIMATE...
Houston Hobby is on track to break a record high min temp today.
Low so far is 81, record is 80 (2015). Both Galveston and City of
Houston (IAH) are on track to tie their previous records.
Galveston with 84 in 2010 and Houston with 81 in 1951.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 99 78 98 78 / 0 10 0 20 10
Houston (IAH) 80 95 81 94 81 / 10 40 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 90 85 89 85 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...31
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 415 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-150915- Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend- Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda- Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington- Wharton- 415 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 90s this afternoon. Factoring in the humidity will produce heat index values between 103 and 108 degrees. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Very warm temperatures will persist for the next seven days. High temperatures will remain in the middle and upper 90`s with heat index values between 103 and 108 degrees. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. $$
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