Friday, August 4, 2017

Aug. 4 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

West Houston, TX, during the late evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.

Summary: The day was hot, sunny. and dry. Light to moderately heavy and heavy showers and thunderstorms looked to be scattered around and in east, south north, and some of west (mostly east) Houston, TX, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. I didn't feel, hear any rain drops. I did see some rain drops on parked cars, outside of where I work, in northwest Houston, TX. Alto stratus with maybe some stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the early and maybe mid-morning. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to have started to cover most of the sky, during the late morning. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the afternoon. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds with maybe some alto stratus clouds, looked to be scattered across the sky, during the evening and maybe night. The sky looked to have maybe become clear, or maybe mostly clear, during the early night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with maybe some moderately strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early and mid-morning, late evening, and night. It felt hot, during the late morning and afternoon. It felt very warm, during the late evening. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.

Storm Summary: I didn't hear about any reports of flooding, or storm damages.

My Storm Summary: I saw some possible storm clouds, during the afternoon and evening. I didn't feel, or hear any rain drops, but I did see some rain drops on some parked cars, while I was at work in northwest Houston, TX, sometime during the afternoon. I didn't hear any thunder, or see any lightning. I didn't see any flooding, or storm damages.

Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.

Thoughts: I was expecting to see at least some rain today, but oh well. There are still more chances this week and next week.

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 050258

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
958 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

With evening update will remove showers and thunderstorms for most
of the remainder of night as radar trends show the isolated
convection that had been lingering over northern and near western
parts of the forecast area are finally dissipating as air mass
cools. Have also tweeked mins down just a tad few spots as areas
that have had rain have already cooled near forecast mins. Could
see some patchy fog especially areas like Angleton that had rain
this evening. Observation at LBX already near saturation...with
temps and dew points in mid 70s. Will add patchy fog for coastal
counties including Angleton and Wharton over to Bay City.

Much as last night expect some development over coastal waters
overnight...perhaps impacting immediate coast toward daybreak.
Tomorrow similar to today with storms redeveloping...most numerous
in the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017/

As storms move west of LBX, today`s convection is largely done at
the TAF sites, and we should move into overnight hours with light
winds and VFR conditions.

Tomorrow should see the development of showers towards mid-morning
for several of the coastal sites (perhaps a bit earlier at GLS),
and transition to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon.
Between the seabreeze and remnant boundaries from today`s
activity, suspect that from IAH coastward will be a little more
preferred for convection than farther inland, but potential will
exist across the area. Like today, expect things to wind down in
the rough vicinity of 00Z.



Was expecting a bit more shra/tsra coverage today but radar is
looking a bit anemic at this time. Most of the shra/tsra will wane
with the loss of heating and expect skies to clear by mid/late
evening. PW values on Saturday not quite as high as today peaking
around 2.00 inches and fcst soundings show a weak capping
inversion near 700 mb. The cap is breakable once temperatures
reach the upper 80`s so would once again expect scattered showers
and storms from late morning through the early afternoon with most
of the precipitation ending by evening. Rinse and repeat for
Sunday only with convective temps a few degrees warmer. Fcst
soundings also look a bit drier but would still expect scattered
showers and storms to develop late in the afternoon.

Rain chances should begin to climb Sunday night as a well defined
short wave moves into central Texas. PW values increase to around
2.10 inches by late Sunday night. A weakness in the 500 mb height
field coupled with a strong upper level disturbance and PW values
exceeding 2.30 inches should set the stage for widespread showers
and thunderstorms on Monday. Some of the storms on Monday will
have the potential to produce heavy rain.

Moisture levels will decrease on Tuesday and Wednesday with PW
values topping out between 1.85 and 2.00 inches. Convective temps
are near 90 with weak capping noted near 850 mb. Daytime heating
should be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms but
widespread activity is not expected.

Thursday and Friday are dependent on the track of a tropical
disturbance in the Caribbean. A model consensus would take this
feature toward Tampico MX but the ECMWF and GFS differ with regard
to the intensity of this system and also differ on the magnitude
of moisture available. Have blended the difference between the
two solutions and will maintain chance PoPs for the end of the
week. 43

NHC is monitoring two areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic
Basin. Both systems will be need to be monitored for possible
tropical development and their eventual track. The disturbance
over the Caribbean is expected to track west through the weekend
and move over the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. Conditions
do look a bit better for some strengthening once the feature
reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. The GFS,
ECMWF and the Canadian all take the system west and keep it well
south of the region. The ECMWF remains the most bullish with the
disturbance and shows the most potential for intensification.
Please monitor the forecast for future track/intensification
changes, if any, through the weekend.

The second disturbance is over the eastern Atlantic and this
feature will continue to track west-northwest and will approach
the Leeward Islands by early next week. 43

An unsettled weather pattern will continue to bring periods of
showers and thunderstorms across the waters well into next week.
Expect higher winds and seas in and near the storms. More persistent
south winds and gradually building seas are anticipated over the
weekend and into the start of next week under a slightly tighter
pressure gradient. Caution flags may be required at times over the
weekend and into early next week. Mariners should monitor the
progress of a tropical disturbance that is currently expected to
strengthen as it moves westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and
into the southern Gulf of Mexico around the middle of next week.


College Station (CLL)      75  94  77  95  77 /  20  30  20  30  30
Houston (IAH)              76  92  78  93  78 /  20  40  20  30  30
Galveston (GLS)            80  90  82  90  82 /  20  50  20  30  30





Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
703 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
703 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Southeast Texas
today. Some of these thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Southeast Texas
Saturday through Thursday. Some of these thunderstorms may be
capable of brief heavy rainfall.


Spotter activation will not be needed.


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