Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.
Thoughts: I forgot what happened weather wise, so I am going to have to forget the weather report of this day also.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 202331 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 531 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017 .AVIATION... Two main issues in this evening`s forecast are trends in winds, and visibility. Pretty high confidence that southwesterly/westerly winds from this afternoon will become light and variable overnight. When they reestablish in the morning, look for southerly winds. Visibility and ceilings are a trickier bit. There had been strong HRRR consensus for dense fog for the entire area from IAH coastward towards dawn. Given that dewpoints in the area are still only in the mid to upper 40s, without a real strong onshore component to boost them quickly, was unsure of how that would play out. Fortunately, the latest HRRR seems more in line with observations. In short, towards dawn, have MVFR visibility from CXO to SGR/HOU. Do go to high IFR at LBX and GLS, nearer the coast. Finally, bring in some low MVFR ceilings all the way to UTS (but leave out CLL) tomorrow afternoon as onshore flow and moisture return kick in more strongly. Luchs && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017/ DISCUSSION... Clear skies overnight with light and variable winds, should help prime conditions for the potential development of radiational fog. Patchy fog should develop where the best moisture will be available, essentially from I-10 southward, as well as in our western counties. The onset of development would begin around 09Z Thursday and could carry through late morning. Short term guidance such as the SREF and HRRR also indicates the potential for lowered visibilities starting along the coast and slowly spreading inland and westward. Surface winds though light overnight, will begin to turn more southerly early Thursday allowing a warm air advection pattern to set up. This will help to push warm moist air back over the region. As this airmass advects over the cooler shelf waters, the chance for sea fog will return Thursday morning along the coastal counties. Patchy to thicker areas of fog could linger through much of Thursday afternoon. Cloud cover will also thicken as a stratus deck develops early Thursday, and should keep temperatures a touch cooler. High temperatures for Thursday are still above normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 70s. The chance for sea fog will again be a factor early Friday morning out ahead of our next cold front. The global models have come into better agreement with the timing of the next cold front, which should reach our coastal waters between 06Z-12Z Saturday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with this frontal passage, with precip starting as early as late Thursday and carrying through the early afternoon hours Saturday. Showers can be expected out ahead of the front late Thursday, with the bulk of the precip associated with the frontal boundary occuring late Friday into early Saturday. Behind the front, showers again will fill in, lingering into the early afternoon hours on Saturday. Temperatures will not be as cool behind this first front, as previous runs of the GFS and ECMWF anticipated. As a result, high temperatures Friday compared to Saturday will drop anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees, leaving high temperatures Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A cooler drier airmass will arrive late Sunday into Monday, which will bring the secondary push of cooler air. This airmass will lower temperatures a little further bringing Monday`s high temperatures into the 50s. Therefore, slightly below normal temperatures are in store for your holiday weekend. The warming trend should continue through mid week, bringing temperatures back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Onshore flow should return by Monday evening. Lastly, another cold front, is expected to arrive towards the end of next week. This will result in another round of precip beginning early Wednesday, with a front potential sliding off the coast next Thursday. Hathaway MARINE... Light onshore winds will develop tonight as surface high pressure moves east of the region. A warm front and associated return flow will bring deeper moisture back into the area and surface dew points will increase to near 70 by Thursday afternoon. Water temperatures are in the lower 60s at the current time so would expect sea fog to begin to develop perhaps as early as Thursday morning. Visibility will probably fall to below a mile at times and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory may be needed at times. One small concern regarding the potential for sea fog is that surface winds will be S-SE and this will bring slightly warmer waters toward the coast so the difference between the water temp and dew pt will lessen and this could reduce the potential for sea fog. SREF ensembles keep the best potential for sea fog from about Galveston Bay, eastward along the Louisiana coast. The onshore flow will also strengthen Thursday into Friday and a SCEC may be required for the 20-60 NM waters. A cold front will cross the coast between 09-12z Saturday and usher in an offshore flow and end the fog threat. Borderline SCA conditions expected in the wake of the front. A secondary surge of colder air will enter the area on Sunday and the gradient over the water will tighten with SCA conditions expected over the Gulf waters on Sunday night into Monday. Onshore winds will return by Monday evening and persist through next Wednesday. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 51 77 64 70 44 / 0 10 40 60 70 Houston (IAH) 53 77 67 76 52 / 0 20 30 40 70 Galveston (GLS) 60 74 65 74 56 / 10 20 20 30 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...39 Aviation/Marine...25
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