Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Dec. 5 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the late morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was cloudy, very cool, and dry. A cluster of light to moderately heavy and heavy rain passed through some of the Houston, TX area, during the late morning and early afternoon. I don't know if there was any rain after, or before that, in the Houston, TX area. There might have been some rain in some of the locations in the Houston, TX area, sometime during the early morning and mid-morning, and maybe night, but I don't know. I didn't really get a chance to look at the radar. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky stayed completely covered in stratus clouds with some breaks of sunshine, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. It felt warm, during the early morning. It started to feel warm with a chilly breeze, sometime during the late, or maybe mid-morning. It started to feel very cool, during the early afternoon. It felt very cool, during the mid and late afternoon and evening. It felt cold, almost very cold, during the night. The wind speeds started out calm with moderate to moderately strong wind gusts, during the morning, then became gentle with moderate to moderately strong wind gusts with some occasional really strong 20-25 mph wind gusts, during the afternoon, before becoming gentle with moderate to moderately strong wind gusts and some really strong 20-25 mph wind gusts, during the evening and night. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. The low temperatures were in the low to mid 50's, during the afternoon, evening, and night, and the high temperatures were in the low to mid 70's, during the early and maybe mid-morning, before the cold front passed through, for the day, in the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: A cluster of light to moderately heavy and heavy rain passed through some of the Houston, TX area, during the late morning and early afternoon. I don't know if there was any rain after, or before that, in the Houston, TX area. There might have been some rain in some of the locations in the Houston, TX area, sometime during the early morning and mid-morning, and maybe night, but I don't know. I didn't really get a chance to look at the radar. I didn't see, or hear about any reports of flooding, or damage caused by the weather, in any of the locations in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day.


My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The light to dark grey clouds looked like they were going to produce some rain, where I was in northwest Houston, TX, during the morning, afternoon, and evening, especially during the morning and early afternoon. I did see some wet roads, wet ground, and puddles, left over from the previous days rain. I didn't see any flooding, or damage caused by the weather. I didn't see any flashes of lightning, or hear any rumbles of thunder.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX


Thoughts: Houston, TX's first real cold front of the fall/winter season has finally passed through! With some snow chances? Read NOAA's forecast discussion below:


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 060223
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
823 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.UPDATE...
Rain along the coast with a few showers and dry across the north.
110kt jet max racing through NM/AZ this evening with a large area
of synoptic scale lift preceding it. Isentropic upglide enhanced
over the coastal waters this evening as well as across portions
of the Hill Country producing an enlarging area of rain with small
embedded heavier rain. As the speed max nears CentTX expect the
rainfall shield to expand in coverage and intensity overspreading
the northwestern counties around midnight and then further
expanding after midnight. Very slim profile for elevated CAPE and
probably just enough for a few isolated thunderstorms with by far
the dominant precip just rain after midnight. Could we see a speck
of sleet/ice pellets yes but no impacts. Temperatures were
running a few degrees cooler than current forecast so have dialed
the forecast down a few more to fit the trends and short term
guidance. Plenty of room for temperatures to fall across the north
tonight with wet- bulbing coming into play. North to northeast
winds will continue overnight and plan to let the Wind Advisory
continue throughout the night for the coastal counties though at
present only on the immediate coast are winds that strong.

Winds and temperatures overnight will allow for wind chill indices
of 37 north to mid 40s south...but no real improvement expected
during the day with upper 30s to mid 40s continuing throughout the
day with widespread rain on top of the cold...so bundle up and
stay dry.


Wednesday night/Thursday - 18z guidance still showing a
temperature profile supportive of rain and rain/snow mix. Stay
tuned. Cold temperatures may well continue through Friday with the
coldest morning possibly being Saturday morning beneath light
winds/mostly clear skies and a reinforcing cold front pushing into
NETX.

45



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017/

AVIATION...
Elevated north to northeasterly winds in the 8 to 15 knot range
inland and closer to 20 knots along the coast are expected to
persist through the overnight hours, with stronger gusts in the 20
to 30 knot range possible at HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS. A mix of IFR to VFR
ceilings this evening may briefly lift to VFR this evening,
before decreasing back to MVFR as light to moderate RA
overspreads the terminals with increasing isentropic lift behind
today`s cold front. The passage of a shortwave trough now over
West Texas tonight may result in isolated elevated TSRA near the
terminals and VCTS may need to be added in to the 06Z TAFs if
confidence increases on TS development. Expect lowered ceilings
and RA to persist through most of the TAF period near the
terminals, resulting in periods of MVFR visibilities and IFR
ceilings in heavier activity.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed through SE TX and is entering the Gulf of
Mexico. A tight pressure gradient behind the front will bring a
strong NNE wind behind the front. It might be overkill but think
sustained winds along the immediate coast will reach 20-25 mph
with higher gusts and decided to go ahead and issue a Wind
Advisory. The strongest winds/greatest impact will likely remain
close to the coast. A series of weak upper level disturbances will
traverse the state over the next 36-42 hours and coupled with
weak isentropic upglide will yield periods of light rain. Rain is
expected to redevelop between 03-06z and expand in coverage by
09z. Would not be surprised if a few ice pellets mixed in with the
rain north of a Caldwell to Trinity line at the onset due to some
evaporative cooling and a low wet bulb temperature. Periods of
rain will continue on Wednesday as another disturbance crosses the
region. Temperatures will be cold with thick cloud cover, weak
cold air advection and precipitation. Doubt there will be of a
diurnal range in temperatures. Forecast soundings show a nearly
saturated profile on Wednesday so some moderate rainfall totals
are likely.

The GFS and ECMWF differ a bit with how long the precipitation
hangs around SE TX. The ECMWF is a bit more amplified in the upper
keeping more of a SW wind aloft Wed night into Thursday while the
GFS is more zonal. The GFS allows for a bit more low level drying
as well. The GFS has been trending toward the more aggressive
ECMWF so feel it`s best to increase rain chances through Wednesday
night and maintain a chance for precip into Thursday. A messy
forecast gets even messier as we move into Wednesday night.
Forecast soundings show a saturated profile above 8000 feet, The
thermal profile falls below 0 C so there could be some mixture of
rain and snow Wednesday night over the extreme north. First guess,
some mixed precip could occur north of a Caldwell to Trinity line.
1000-850 and 850-700 thickness values are marginally supportive of
a rain-snow mix but the forecast soundings for KCLL and
Madisonville look more favorable for snow. Surface temperatures
will remain relatively warm through Thursday, well above freezing
and there is a large chunk of dry air that the precip will have to
fall through, likely evaporating before reaching the ground. There
is a lot of uncertainty this far out so would prefer to keep the
precip type in the grids as rain for now and see if models come
into better agreement.

Drier air will gradually filter into the region from the north on
Thursday but light rain will probably linger near the coast and
toward the southern edge of the CWA. Clouds will limit heating on
Thursday and high temperatures will struggle to warm into the
middle 50`s. The upper level trough axis finally shifts east of
SE TX on Friday and any residual precipitation should end early
Friday as dry air continues to filter into the area. Sunshine is
expected to return by Friday afternoon.

The weekend and first half of next week look quiet with
seasonable temperatures and no precipitation expected. 43

MARINE...
The passage of an afternoon cold front will strengthen northerly
winds and allow seas to build through early Wednesday. The delay of
colder air over much warmer waters late Wednesday into early
Thursday...as it relates to tonight into early Wednesday`s
tight offshore pressure gradient...will likely just maintain
Advisory level winds. Tomorrow`s Gulf winds may occasionally gust to
gale thus had left the Gale Watch up...now in effect for the 20 to
60 nm waters from sunrise tomorrow morning through tomorrow
afternoon. Generally 20 to 25 knot bay winds with 20 to 30 knots
sustained winds over the Gulf from tonight through late Thursday.
Agitated seas will likely reach average 5 to 7 feet nearshore
heights...7 to 10 feet offshore. Winds and seas will begin to come
down Friday. Periods of long duration light rain on both Wednesday
and Thursday. Winds and seas will begin to fall on Friday. High
pressure settling in over the waters this weekend will produce a
significantly weakened light offshore flow pattern and average 2 to
3 foot sea heights. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      41  46  39  53  33 /  90 100  60  30  10
Houston (IAH)              44  45  42  52  36 /  80 100  80  40  20
Galveston (GLS)            46  51  46  53  43 /  70 100  70  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for the following zones:
     Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Matagorda.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Gale Watch from 6 AM CST Wednesday through late Wednesday night
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235-062145-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-
Walker-Waller-Washington-Wharton-
335 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Periods of light rain will redevelop later this evening and
persist overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periods of light to moderate rain will be possible through
Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts by Wednesday night will average
between 1 and 2 inches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

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