Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Sep. 30 20

 The sky was clear, at my house in northwest Houston, TX and the Heights area where I work, during the early morning. The sky looked to be clear in the heights area where I work, during the mid and late morning, afternoon, and early evening. The sky looked to be clear on my way from the Heights area where I work to the Petsmart in Katy, TX, during the late evening. The sky looked to be clear on my way to my house in northwest Houston, TX from the Petsmart in Katy, TX, during the early night. The sky looked to be clear at my house, during the late night. There looked to be a light fog at my house in northwest Houston, TX, as the sun was rising, during the early morning. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. It felt cold, during the early morning and a little cool, during the mid-morning, evening, and night. It felt warm, during the late morning and afternoon. 

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 302337
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies across the TAF sites. Most
winds will stay light and variable and coastal with get some onshore
flow effects. Some winds will start shifting Thursday night with a
weak dry frontal boundary. 35

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather next several days with a couple of dry
cold frontal passages. Next week will monitor possible tropical
systems over the SW Gulf and possibly moving up into the Southern
Gulf from the NW Caribbean Sea but not expected to directly
impact Texas coast at this time.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]...
Tranquil and comfortable early fall weather has prevailed today
thanks to the strong mid-upper level ridge over southwestern CONUS
and a broad surface high pressure to our east. Clear skies and
light winds will again provide good radiational cooling tonight;
therefore, low temperatures will again range from the upper 50s to
low 60s.

Another quiet day is in store for Thursday. The main weather feature
will be warmer conditions ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. The dry cold
front sags southward into our region Thursday afternoon into Friday,
bringing drier air and shifting winds to the north-northeast. Gusty
winds from 15 to 20 knots will be possible along and behind the
front, mainly along the coast/over the waters. Dry conditions
remain in control into the weekend. 05

05

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Will see continued dry weather through the period with surface
ridging and E to SE surface winds over the area. Models hinting at
tropical cyclone possibly in the Bay of Campeche...with
possibility of another lifting from the NW Caribbean Sea into the
southern Gulf by middle of next week. This especially true in the
GFS can Canadian models. ECMWF doesn`t do much with either. In
any case not likely to see either system impact Texas coast
directly given the forecast steering currents more to the NE...but
as always will have to keep an eye on how any systems behave and
track middle and late next week. 18


.MARINE...
Relatively light winds and modest seas next few days with surface
ridging and weak pressure gradient in place. A front will cross
the waters Thursday evening...with increasing NE flow behind it on
Friday. Relatively light winds are expected over the weekend but
will have to watch for any tropical development over the NW
Caribbean or Southern Gulf of Mexico...which could mean a
tightening of the pressure gradient and increasing winds and seas
next week.

18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  56  86  58  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          61  87  63  81  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        72  82  71  78  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...18
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...35
MARINE...18

Air Quality Alert

TXZ213-237-238-313-337-338-437-438-020000-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...Ozone Action Day...

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has issued an
Ozone Action Day for the Houston, Galveston, and Brazoria areas for
Thursday, October 1, 2020.

Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for producing
high levels of ozone pollution in the Houston, Galveston and
surrounding areas on Thursday. You can help prevent ozone pollution by
sharing a ride, walking, riding a bicycle, taking your lunch to work,
avoiding drive through lanes, conserving energy and keeping your vehicle
properly tuned.

For more information on ozone:

Ozone: The Facts www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/monops/ozonefacts.html
EPA AIR NOW:
www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=236
Take Care Of Texas: www.takecareoftexas.org/air/airquality

$$

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Sep. 29 20

 White alto stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, at my house in northwest Houston, TX and where I work in the Heights, during the early morning. I noticed that the sky looked to be clear or maybe mostly clear with maybe a few alto stratus clouds, when I looked out of the window of where I work in the Heights, during the late morning. The sky looked to be clear with maybe some alto stratus clouds, where I work in the Heights area and in my neighborhood in northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon. The sky looked to be clear with maybe some alto stratus clouds, in west Houston, TX, during the mid and late afternoon. The sky looked to be clear with maybe some alto stratus clouds in west Houston, TX and Katy, TX, during the early evening. The sky looked to be clear with maybe some alto stratus clouds, where I work in northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening and night. The wind speeds felt to be calm with some moderate gusts. It felt warm during the mid and late morning, afternoon, and evening. It felt cool, during the early morning. It felt a little cool during the night. There was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not see, or feel any drops.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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105
FXUS64 KHGX 300006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Clear skies and VFR conditions remain on the cards for the
duration of the TAF period, with this afternoon`s north winds
becoming light and variable overnight. Tomorrow, a southwest flow
will develop after sunrise and remain around 5 to 10 knots through
the day. No cig/vis concerns are anticipated.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020/

SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Wednesday]...

Mostly sunny skies will prevail for the rest of today with high
temperatures reaching the low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 30s to
low 40s. Breezy conditions will continue for most of SE Texas, but
winds are expected to subside gradually overnight. Lows tonight will
once again be in the low to mid 50s (slightly higher along the inner
coastal locations and Barrier Islands).

Another beautiful day is on tap for Wednesday with mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures a few degrees higher, likely reaching the
mid 80s. Winds will turn more west to southwest throughout the day
Wednesday and likely be at 5-10 MPH. 24

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Monday]...

There has been little change made to the long term forecast. A dry
northwest flow aloft will remain in place while a series of weak
cold fronts move across the area resulting in a stretch of cool nights
(lows in the 50s/60s) and warmish days (highs in the 80s). The first
weak front enters our northern counties Thursday afternoon and sags
southward and through our entire area by Friday morning. The main feature
with this boundary will be a slight increase in northeast winds after
its passage. These winds will come back around to the southeast for
the first part of the weekend as high pressure moves off to the east.
It still looks like moisture levels will remain starved before the next
weak front`s arrival during the Sunday-Monday time period, however there
are some model indications of possible rain development across some
of our far north and northeast counties. For now, will only indicate
5%-10% rain chances for that area.

We`ll also be monitoring the northwest Caribbean-Yucatan area for possible
tropical development toward the end of the week, over the weekend and
on into the start of next week. It is still too early to know if and
when any influence this system (if it develops) will end up having on
our area. Keep up with the latest outlooks from the National Hurricane
Center.  42

MARINE...

Winds and seas will continue to come down as high pressure builds into
the area, and expect all caution/advisory flags to be lifted tonight.
A light onshore flow is still expected to resume by late tomorrow and
on into Thursday as the high shifts off to the east. A weak reinforcing
cold front should bring light to moderate northeast winds by Thursday
night or Friday, and caution flags might be needed for our offshore
waters. Southeast winds come back for the weekend before the next weak
cold front moves through the area late Sunday or early Monday. Northeast
to east might end up setting up for the first half of next week, and
we`ll have to see if any tropical development moves into the Gulf and
has any influence on our area. 42


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      52  86  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              56  85  59  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            68  82  71  84  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


Air Quality Alert

TXZ213-237-238-313-337-338-437-438-301930-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
219 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...Ozone Action Day for Wednesday September 30...

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has issued an
Ozone Action Day for the Houston, Galveston, and Brazoria areas for
Wednesday, September 30, 2020.

Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for producing
high levels of ozone pollution in the Houston, Galveston and
surrounding areas on Wednesday. You can help prevent ozone pollution by
sharing a ride, walking, riding a bicycle, taking your lunch to work,
avoiding drive through lanes, conserving energy and keeping your vehicle
properly tuned.

For more information on ozone:

Ozone: The Facts www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/monops/ozonefacts.html
EPA AIR NOW:
www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=236
Take Care Of Texas: www.takecareoftexas.org/air/airquality

$$

Monday, September 28, 2020

Sep. 28 20

Low to high white alto stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, at my house and neighborhood, in northwest Houston, TX, during the morning, evening and night. Low to high white alto stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, at my house in northwest Houston, TX and Katy, TX, during the early afternoon. There was a brief break in the clouds, where the sky became mostly clear, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon. There was a 40 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not feel, or see any rain drops. The wind speeds were calm with some moderate to moderately strong gusts. The day felt warm, almost cool to a little cool. with a little cool to cool wind. 

Thoughts:

Not sure when or if the cold has already passed over the Houston, TX area but I did not feel any dramatic temperature change or see any rain or rain/front clouds, so I am not sure. Starting to feel more like fall.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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089
FXUS64 KHGX 282331
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions have begun across the area with the cold front now
located offshore. The gusty northerly winds should be coming down
to 5 to 10kts within the next few hours for all the inland TAF
sites. GLS and maybe LBX will continue to see gusts up to 20 to
25kts through the night. The northerly winds pick up again
tomorrow for the entire region, but should be lighter than today.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 218 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Tuesday Afternoon]...

The cold front that moved through SE Texas this morning is now over
the Gulf waters. In the wake of the front winds turned northerly and
increased to 15-20 MPH with gusts of up to 30 MPH on occasion. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for most of SE Texas through early
tonight, continuing along the inner coastal regions and Barrier
Islands through Tuesday morning. Cooler and drier air mass has
filtered into the northern third of the CWA and is expected to
continue to expand southward and across the rest of the CWA during
the rest of the afternoon and evening hours lifting and clearing
skies as it does so. This air mass has also cooled temperatures
today, with highs expected to only reach the mid to upper 70s.

Tonight, mostly clear skies are expected with low temperatures
dropping into the 50s! It will definitely be a cool and crisp
Tuesday morning, maybe even a bit chilly in some locations thanks to
the moderate to strong gusty winds. For the rest of the day Tuesday,
sunny skies are on tap along with gradually subsiding northerly
winds and temperatures only reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
Sounds like a delightful late September day for SE Texas...enjoy.
24


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

Cool nights (lows mainly in the 50s/60s with mostly clear to clear skies
and no rain) and warm days (highs mainly in the 80s with mostly sunny
to sunny skies and no rain) can be expected. There will be just a subtle
warming trend Wednesday through Thursday before the next cold front
(much weaker compared to this morning`s boundary) moves through the
area Thursday night through Friday morning. High pressure behind this
front that is centered well to our north will move off to the east at
the end of the week and over the weekend, and this will allow for a
weak onshore flow to come back to the area. Another weak front looks
to possibly enter the area Sunday night or Monday morning.  42


.MARINE...

Strong northerly winds, with gusts possibly close to gale force, can
be expected tonight in the wake of this morning`s cold front. Winds
and seas should begin subsiding late Tuesday into midweek. A reinforcing
but much weaker cold front is forecast to move into the waters late
Thursday night or Friday morning. Onshore flow (weak to occasionally
moderate) returns to the area over the weekend as surface high pressure
behind the second front quickly moves off to the east. Another weak
front could sag into the area from the north in a Sunday night-Monday
morning time period. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  53  80  53  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          57  80  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        66  79  66  81  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones:
     Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
     Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
     Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Fort
     Bend...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
     Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
     Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...Southern
     Liberty...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Sunday, September 27, 2020

Sep. 27 20

 Not sure how the sky looked but the sun was out, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning. The sky looked to be clear with some altostratus clouds scattered across, at my house, during the mid-morning. Alto stratus clouds started to cover most of the sky, during the early afternoon, or maybe late morning, at my house in northwest Houston, TX. Alto stratus clouds were scattered across the sky, at my house in northwest Houston, TX and the Heights, during the early afternoon. Alto stratus clouds were scattered across the sky in West Houston, TX and Katy, TX, during mid and late afternoon and early evening. Alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, at my house and neighborhood in northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening. The sky looked to be clear with only one or two alto stratus clouds scattered about, at my house in northwest Houston, TX during the night. The wind speeds were light with some moderate gusts throughout the day. The day very warm, almost hot. There was no rain for the Houston, TX area that I know of. I did not see, or feel any rain drops. There was a 30 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, during the night but I am not sure about the day. May have been a 10 to 20 percent chance.

(Edit: High white alto stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, while I was driving my mom around trying to find a open gas station, in my neighborhood in northwest Houston, TX, during 11 pm.)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272359
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions with light to moderate southerly flow will continue
through midnight tonight, but an approaching cold front will bring
a northerly wind shift, MVFR CIGs of around 1500-2000ft, and a
line of showers and thunderstorms to the area late tonight and
into the first part of tomorrow. Looks like this line will be
through CLL around 7-8z, through IAH around 11-12z, then through
GLS and off the coast by 14-16z. As the front passes, it will
bring a line of precipitation with it. Have just kept the VCSH
wording, but an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out. Gusty
northerly winds will continue through the day behind the front
with gusts up to 20 to 30mph with the strongest gusts near the
shore. Expect clearing skies through the day as well. Winds relax
a bit overnight tomorrow night, but may still be sustained around
10 to 15 mph.

Important information for our users, the NWS will be completing
some maintenance on our internal network between 1am and 4am CDT.
This will result in a data outage of many of our products and many
products will not be transmitted to external users. Because of
this, all of our TAF sites will include "AMD NOT SKED 2806/2809"
in the 6z package. Unfortunately, this will be when the cold front
will be moving through CLL and UTS, so please be advised that
amendments may not be issued if conditions become unrepresentative.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Monday Afternoon]...

Fair but breezy weather conditions will continue today through early
tonight. Partly cloudy skies and winds of 10-15 MPH are expected to
prevail this afternoon with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s
to low 90s. Rain chances will increase tonight into Monday morning
across SE Texas as a cold front moves through the local area.
Locally, we will see showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms
ahead and along the boundary beginning along the northern areas
closer to midnight CDT, spreading into the central areas overnight
and reaching the southern areas early Monday morning. In the wake of
the front, rain chances will dissipate and winds will turn northerly
and increase to around 15 KTS with gusts of around 25 KTS. By Monday
late morning into afternoon, drier air will filter into the region
allowing skies to lift and scatter out starting along the northern
region spreading southward into the rest of the CWA Monday
afternoon/evening. No significant threat is expected with this
frontal passage, but the drier and cooler air mass will decrease
overall temperatures on Monday. High temperatures look to only reach
the mid to upper 70s across areas north of I-10 and the low 80s
across areas south of I-10. Very nice for September in SE Texas! 24


.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Sunday]...

The main weather feature in the long term period will be the cooler
overnight low temperatures and the lower daytime humidities. On Tuesday,
Wednesday and Thursday lows will be mostly in the 50s inland and in
the 60s at the coast with Wednesday probably being the coolest as surface
high pressure settles into the area. Tuesday`s highs looks to stay
in the upper 70s to around 80, and then a warmup begins with readings
probably reaching the mid to upper 80s on Thursday. The next cold front
(much weaker and much less breezy/windy than Monday`s front) will work
its way through the area Thursday night through Friday morning. High
pressure behind this front will be centered well to our north as it
moves eastward, and this will bring area winds back around to the
southeast and south for the weekend. Friday`s low temperatures should
be a little cooler than Thursday morning`s readings, and then the area
can expect a gradual rising trend (both temperatures and humidities)
over the weekend.

Do not think anyone would be upset if record low temperatures were reached
during this cooldown, but sorry to say that`s not gonna happen.

42


.MARINE...

Onshore winds will prevail tonight ahead of a strong cold front that
will move into the coastal waters on Monday morning. In the wake of
the front, strong northerly winds, with gusts possibly close to gale
force, can be expected later in the day and on into Monday night as
cooler air temperatures move across the warmer water temperatures.
Winds and seas should begin subsiding late Tuesday into midweek as
high pressure settles into the area. A reinforcing but much weaker
cold front is forecast to move into the waters late Thursday night
or Friday morning. Onshore flow returns to the area over the weekend
as surface high pressure behind the second front quickly moves off
to the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  64  76  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          72  79  59  80  57 /  20  40   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        77  82  66  80  66 /  10  40   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Saturday, September 26, 2020

Sep. 26 20

 The sky looked to be clear with maybe some thin white altostratus clouds, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, The Heights area, West Houston, TX, and Katy, TX. The wind speeds were calm. It felt very warm, almost hot, during the late morning and afternoon. It felt a little cool, during the early and mid-morning, evening, and night. No rain for the forecast that I know of. I did not see or feel any raindrops. There was some rolling ground fog in northwest Houston, TX, on my way to work in the Heights area, during the early morning. The wind speeds felt to be calm with maybe some light gusts.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 262331
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Main issue this package will be the same issue we have been
dealing with the past few nights, which is patchy fog and MVFR
CIGS developing by midnight and lasting through the early morning.
The one difference tonight is that the southerly winds may stay
elevated overnight tonight. These higher winds could limit the
development of the fog, but guidance continues to show patchy fog
developing along and north of I-45. If any fog does develop
overnight, it will dissipate shortly after sunrise. The southerly
flow will be strengthening tomorrow with sustained winds of 10 to
15 mph through the afternoon with isolated wind gusts up to 20
mph. Don`t mention any gusts yet in the TAFs because of the
isolated nature of it, but it may get added in in later packages.
No showers or thunderstorms are expecting through the period.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 302 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Sunday Afternoon]...

A rather benign weather pattern will continue across SE Texas
through the short term period. For the rest of the day today, expect
partly to variably cloudy skies with southerly winds at 5 to 10 MPH.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, peaking in the mid to upper 80s areawide. Skies are
expected to clear out in the evening, however, cloudiness is
expected to return during the overnight and early Sunday morning
hours. Areas of patchy fog are expected to develop once again
overnight into early Sunday morning across portions of SE Texas.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s along areas north
of I-10 and in the low to mid 70s along areas south of I-10. Winds
will be increasing Sunday morning, which could help lift and scatter
out the fog quicker than today, or may even not allow the fog to
develop at all for a few locations. If fog does develop tonight,
expect it to lift and clear out by mid morning. With a more
pronounced southerly wind flow, we may have isolated showers moving
across the local waters from the Gulf Sunday morning and may reach
the coastal locations from time to time. However, confidence of this
occurring is low and thus kept PoPs at 10% for the waters and
coastal locations. High temperatures Sunday afternoon will increase
into the upper 80s and low 90s. An increase in low level moisture
will also increase dewpoints into the low 70s Sunday afternoon. 24


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

Late Sunday night through early Monday morning, look for increasing
chances of northern county showers and possible thunderstorms, probably
beginning shortly before sunrise as a strong cold front enters the area
from the north. This front will sweep through Southeast Texas and could
very well be off the coast by around or shortly after noon. With the
fast movement of the front, still anticipating rainfall amounts to average
1/2 inch or less. With winds shifting to the north behind the front
(becoming breezy inland and breezy/windy at the coast), look for a
decreasing trend in temperatures during the afternoon. Cool nights
and mild days (lows mainly in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the
beaches and highs in the 70s/80s) along with low humidities and no
rain can be expected for the remainder of the week as a western U.S.
ridge and an eastern U.S. trof become established in the mid/upper
levels. This pattern will allow for a Thursday-Friday reinforcing
(but much weaker) cold front to move through the area. Currently, this
pattern looks to hold into the weekend and on into the start of next
week. Some gradual warming can be expected as winds come back around
to the south and southeast, but moisture levels look to be too low
for any rain development. 42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will continue through
Sunday night. A strong cold front will move into and through the
coastal waters late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Winds
will shift to the north behind the front and strengthen, and small
craft advisories will be needed for the development of the strong
winds and rough bay waters/seas. Wind gusts could possibly increase
to near gale force Monday night. Decreasing winds and seas can be
expected late Tuesday into midweek as high pressure builds into
the area and the gradient weakens. A reinforcing and much weaker
front is still anticipated to move into the waters Thursday or
Friday. The offshore flow behind this front will quickly swing
back around to onshore over the weekend.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  70  89  67  77  54 /   0   0  10  40  10
Houston (IAH)          71  90  73  82  59 /   0   0   0  50  10
Galveston (GLS)        77  86  78  86  66 /  10  10   0  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Friday, September 25, 2020

Sep. 25 20

High white alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, at my house and in my neighborhood in northwest Houston, TX, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were calm with maybe some light gusts. There was no rain that I could see, or feel. I don't think there was any chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. The day was warm.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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782
FXUS64 KHGX 252333
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to start the TAF period but with clear
skies, light winds and wet grounds from recent rain, feel there
will again be some potential for areas of fog overnight. Not sure
how widespread or dense fog will get but the potential is there
for some pockets of dense fog. The fog should be shallow and burn
off early on Saturday with VFR ceilings possible through the
morning morning transitioning to no ceilings by evening. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Afternoon]...
Another quiet evening with light winds and clearing skies in the
early evening with the loss of heating. A brief penetration of the
seabreeze possible late this afternoon into the early evening for
areas within about 5 miles of the coast.  Tonight patchy fog/areas
of fog will likely be developing after 3 am for the inland areas
especially in the more rural locations with radiational cooling.

Fog dissipating quickly Saturday morning between 7-8 am with heating
and then development of shallow CU and capping aloft as upper speed
max approaches from the southwest. Moisture return starts and slow
rise in BL depth and temperatures should rise into the mid to upper
80s. An isolated shower may be possible east and northeast of the
Trinity bay area but chances look slim as upper trough moves through
the area.

45

LONG TERM...[Saturday Night through Friday]

It will be a little warmer Saturday night through Sunday night as winds
come back around to the southeast and south in response to deepening
low pressure in the Texas panhandle-West Texas area. Rain is not expected
to come back into the picture until late Sunday night through Monday
when a strong cold front sweeps through the area. Best rain chances
currently look like during the day on Monday ahead of the front with
the higher values across ports of our northeast and east counties.
Rainfall totals will not be bad at all (nothing even close to what
we saw with Beta) due partly to the fast movement of the front (wettest
spots might see 1/4 to 1/2 inch). Behind the front, expect falling
temperatures along with possible breezy conditions developing inland
and breezy/windy conditions developing near and along the coast Monday
afternoon and especially Monday night and Tuesday in response to a
tightened pressure gradient. With strong ridging developing out west
and a deep trough developing out east, look for cooler nights (lows
mainly in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the beaches), not as warm
days (highs the 70s/80s) and much lower humidities for the remainder
of the week as September comes to an end and October begins).  42

MARINE...
Mild conditions expected tonight through Sunday with winds varying
from northeasterly around to the south then gradually increasing
Saturday night into Sunday. Winds may briefing increase to SCEC
conditions Sunday night in the Matagorda Bay area and the waters to
the south.

A strong cold front will move through SETX Monday and off the coast
between 8am and noon. CAA signals all showing a stronger cold front
and forcing indicating the potential for a line of showers or storms
to accompany parts of the front that isn`t capped. After the FROPA
winds should quickly ramp up to SCA conditions with sustained 20+
knot winds and stronger gusts. Winds of 25-30 knots will be with
possible Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Winds should
relax Tuesday afternoon/evening as surface high settles over the
coast.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      64  85  67  89  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              65  86  69  89  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            75  84  76  87  79 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43