Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Sep. 22 20

 Low, dark grey stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning. Low, dark grey stratus clouds continued to cover the whole sky, where I work in the Heights area, through the mid and late morning, afternoon, and early evening. Low dark grey stratus clouds, still covered the whole sky, at my house and neighborhood in northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening and night. It felt a little cool, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were calm with some occasional 20 to maybe 30 mph wind gusts, where I was during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. Heavy training rain occurred outside of my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning before sunrise and continued to fall off and on where I work in the Heights area, during the mid and late morning, afternoon, and early evening. A band of really heavy rain was falling on my way to my home in northwest Houston, TX from where I work in the Heights area, during the evening. On and off light to moderate rain fell at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the night. I thought I heard some possible distant rumbles of thunder, although I did not see any lightning, where I was during the day.

Thoughts: Well it looks like Houston definitely got a big rain event from Beta. I had the worst drive in and from work in my entire life. Especially during the evening. I drove through an hour of dark pounding rain trying desperately hard to keep my car from losing control or hydroplaning on the freeway. It was awful!!!! I am so glad for tropical storm Beta to be leaving the Houston, TX area tomorrow morning. Today is also our first day of fall. 


There were multiple flash flood warnings issued by NOAA for the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night.


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 222356
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
656 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

IFR and MVFR conditions prevail. TD Beta tracks along the coastline
bringing low ceilings and bands of rain that restrict visibility to
IFR conditions. Tomorrow afternoon is looking like the time
conditions will begin to improve across the TAF sites. Around 18-
20z, most ceilings will get to 015 and steadily improve thereafter.
35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 459 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020/...





.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday Night]...

Tropical Depression Beta, currently over southwestern portions of
the CWA, has produced some very healthy rounds of heavy rain over
portions of SE TX overnight/early this morning. There have been a
lot of reports of flooded roadways, overtopping of bayous/creeks,
and water rescues through early this afternoon. We did have a bit
of a break this afternoon, but there is concern that this heating
(albeit short) will help to fuel another round of heavy rains for
this late afternoon through tonight. Near-term models (especially
HRRR/NAM) have verified rather well of late, and if going forward
with this line of thinking, we could see another band of rains de-
velop close to where the earlier one set up this morning.

Rainfall totals so far today have averaged from 5 to 10 inches with
isolated amounts up to 15 inches. Unfortunately, we are still going
with these same numbers for this evening. And so depending on where
these bands set up...we could see an *additional* 5 to 10 inches of
rain with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible tonight. Bayous
and drainage systems are expected to be quickly overwhelmed if this
forecast verifies. Please exercise extreme caution if traveling out
on the roadways tonight and tomorrow morning. As Beta moves further
east tomorrow, rain chances will be slowly decreasing from the west
to east.


.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday Night]...

Let`s talk about good news and better weather conditions. A
positively tilted trough will develop over west/central TX by
midweek, while a ridge/high pressure holds strong over central Gulf
of Mexico. This flow pattern will push Tropical Depression Beta
northeast into Louisiana and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night
into Friday. A relatively dry-airmass will dominate the region with
PWATs ranging from 1.0 to 1.3 inches Thursday through Saturday;
therefore, little if any precipitation is expected through this
period. The exception could be over the waters where some forecast
soundings suggest morning spotty showers. Highs will generally be in
the 80s and overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Near to slightly above average temperatures return on Saturday as
southerly surface flow brings warmer and more humid air.

Upper-level flow will be dominated by a ridge over the western CONUS
and a broad trough over the Great Lakes, keeping the region under a
north to northeast flow aloft this weekend into early next week. At
the surface, a cool front will cross Texas on Saturday, approaching
our region by early Sunday. Unfortunately for us, not much is
expected with the arrival of this front, other than a wind shift
through Monday. Latest GFS solutions suggest some rain showers
across our far southwestern counties; while the ECMWF and Canadian
keep the period dry. Have leaned towards the latter solution and
kept the period dry. The main feature next week will be slightly
warmer temperatures returning into the region. Daytime highs are
expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.MARINE...

Tropical Depression Beta has moved inland and is losing strength.
Effect on the coastal waters are subsiding. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect through Wednesday morning and at this time is not
looking like it will need to be extended. Through the night the
winds wind in the coastal water are going to be northwesterly around
15Kts and seas at 3-4ft just off the coast with 5-6ft in the outer
waters. By Thursday the seas will subside to around 2ft just off the
coast with 3-4ft in the outer waters. Winds will be northerly
around 10kts. Thursday morning will be the final push of chances of
rain in the coastal waters. Through the weekend, fair winds and
following seas with light onshore flow developing over the weekend.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall rates have tapered off significantly since early morning
and this has given many of the river and bayous a chance to recover
some capacity.

The hardest hit corridor remains from around Bellaire to South Acres
in south Houston to Brookside Village/Pearland/Friendswood where the
swath of the heaviest rainfall 9-14" fell. Currently the largest
impacts are along the Clear Creek basin. From around Morningside
Place north of Tom Bass regional park downstream through the I-
45/Clear Creek area. Moderate flooding levels has gotten into homes
there and will likely continue at or near these same levels through
11 pm to 2 am before starting to significantly recede...first on the
upstream sites this evening then into hardest hit areas below
Telephone Road tonight.

Needless to say that the area doesn`t need any more rainfall but the
slow moving circulation with Beta is likely keep the threat of
locally heavy rainfall with 2+"/hour rates in the picture through
early Wednesday. With some of the eastward shift of the heavier
rainfall in the short term guidance these higher rainfall rates may
be focused east of these hardest hit areas early today which would
be good news for these area. But it may also be clipping the eastern
edges of these basin.  The threat for impacts tonight is likely to
shift generally along and east and northeastward of the I-45
corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  68  81  64  80  62 /  80  30  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)          72  81  69  82  67 / 100  50  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)        76  85  71  83  74 /  90  60  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
     Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
     Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for the
     following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
     Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
     Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
     Harris...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
     Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland
     Galveston...Inland Harris...Montgomery...Northern
     Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern
     Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...35
MARINE...35
HYDROLOGY...45

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