Big to small, low to high stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, at my house, and at work in the heights area, during the morning, afternoon, and evening. The sky looked to have become clear, or mostly clear during the early night, and looked to have stayed clear to mostly clear through the night, at my house in northwest Houston, TX. The day was very hot. I drove through a stray moderate to moderately heavy shower on my way home in northwest Houston, TX, from volunteering in Katy, TX, during the late evening. The light rain looked to maybe continue off and on at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the early night.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 152010 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 .SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should taper off with the loss of heating this evening. Look for a quiet overnight period followed by a somewhat similar setup on Wed with isolated precip development in the afternoon. PW`s will be a touch lower and subsidence a bit higher so would anticipate less overall coverage. 47 && .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]... Thursday is looking to be the wettest day of the long term period as SE Texas gets into a favorable spot for precipitation with a mid- level trough moving across Texas and being located in the vicinity of the right entry region of upper-level jetstreak. These factors combined with PWATs around 2 inches and daytime heating will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the area by the afternoon lingering into Thursday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility on Friday as PWATs remain near 2 inches, but coverage will be more isolated without the upper-level support. Beginning late Friday into Saturday morning, Houston will get its second opportunity of the fall season for a weak cold front/dry line to reach the area. This time, the drier air may be able to penetrate the region all the way to the coast allowing for some more fall-like conditions over the weekend. Like the boundary from the other week, this one will be very shallow, so will not have too high confidence in the evolution of this front until some of the high resolution guidance gets into play. How far south this boundary makes it will really determine the weather next week. Not much precipitation is expected in this period as drier air (PWATs down to near 1 inch) settles in behind the front. However, there this is not set in stone and could drastically change if that boundary does not push as far south as expected. A low pressure system may develop in the southern Gulf off the coast of southern Texas over the weekend. This system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds over the Gulf waters. If this boundary doesn`t make it as far south as currently depicted, or if it retreats north faster, then those heavy rains may creep further north as well. So something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent through the period with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and minimum temperatures in the mid 60s up north to low 70s south of I-10. The real change in the long term will be with the heat index. Heat indices will drop from near triple digits on Thursday/Friday to near 90 (so very close to the actual temperature) over the weekend thanks to the drier air. Fowler && .MARINE... At high tide, observed water levels along the coast/bays are generally 3.0-3.4ft MLLW. Lack of significant surf & wind has kept coastal flood/rip concerns on the low side...and we`ll be going into low tide this evening. Likewise, the 3-6ft swell from Sally has peaked and seas will be on a gradual downward trend tonight- Thurs with light (to occasional moderate) n/ne flow prevailing. Meanwhile, the disturbance/elongated low situated across the western Gulf will meander about the area as we head into the weekend. The tail end of a frontal boundary should approach the coast on Friday and linger near and just off the coast thru the weekend as well. The combination/proximity of both will leave a tight pressure gradient producing a long fetch of moderate to strong ne/ene winds into early next week. This setup, assuming things pan out as models currently depict, would be one that would also produce large seas and potential for coastal flooding. Just something to keep an eye on as we head into later parts of the week... 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 90 72 88 69 / 10 20 20 50 20 Houston (IAH) 75 95 76 91 73 / 0 20 10 40 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 93 81 90 78 / 10 10 20 40 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$
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