Saturday, September 26, 2020

Sep. 26 20

 The sky looked to be clear with maybe some thin white altostratus clouds, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, The Heights area, West Houston, TX, and Katy, TX. The wind speeds were calm. It felt very warm, almost hot, during the late morning and afternoon. It felt a little cool, during the early and mid-morning, evening, and night. No rain for the forecast that I know of. I did not see or feel any raindrops. There was some rolling ground fog in northwest Houston, TX, on my way to work in the Heights area, during the early morning. The wind speeds felt to be calm with maybe some light gusts.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 262331
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Main issue this package will be the same issue we have been
dealing with the past few nights, which is patchy fog and MVFR
CIGS developing by midnight and lasting through the early morning.
The one difference tonight is that the southerly winds may stay
elevated overnight tonight. These higher winds could limit the
development of the fog, but guidance continues to show patchy fog
developing along and north of I-45. If any fog does develop
overnight, it will dissipate shortly after sunrise. The southerly
flow will be strengthening tomorrow with sustained winds of 10 to
15 mph through the afternoon with isolated wind gusts up to 20
mph. Don`t mention any gusts yet in the TAFs because of the
isolated nature of it, but it may get added in in later packages.
No showers or thunderstorms are expecting through the period.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 302 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Sunday Afternoon]...

A rather benign weather pattern will continue across SE Texas
through the short term period. For the rest of the day today, expect
partly to variably cloudy skies with southerly winds at 5 to 10 MPH.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, peaking in the mid to upper 80s areawide. Skies are
expected to clear out in the evening, however, cloudiness is
expected to return during the overnight and early Sunday morning
hours. Areas of patchy fog are expected to develop once again
overnight into early Sunday morning across portions of SE Texas.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s along areas north
of I-10 and in the low to mid 70s along areas south of I-10. Winds
will be increasing Sunday morning, which could help lift and scatter
out the fog quicker than today, or may even not allow the fog to
develop at all for a few locations. If fog does develop tonight,
expect it to lift and clear out by mid morning. With a more
pronounced southerly wind flow, we may have isolated showers moving
across the local waters from the Gulf Sunday morning and may reach
the coastal locations from time to time. However, confidence of this
occurring is low and thus kept PoPs at 10% for the waters and
coastal locations. High temperatures Sunday afternoon will increase
into the upper 80s and low 90s. An increase in low level moisture
will also increase dewpoints into the low 70s Sunday afternoon. 24


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

Late Sunday night through early Monday morning, look for increasing
chances of northern county showers and possible thunderstorms, probably
beginning shortly before sunrise as a strong cold front enters the area
from the north. This front will sweep through Southeast Texas and could
very well be off the coast by around or shortly after noon. With the
fast movement of the front, still anticipating rainfall amounts to average
1/2 inch or less. With winds shifting to the north behind the front
(becoming breezy inland and breezy/windy at the coast), look for a
decreasing trend in temperatures during the afternoon. Cool nights
and mild days (lows mainly in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the
beaches and highs in the 70s/80s) along with low humidities and no
rain can be expected for the remainder of the week as a western U.S.
ridge and an eastern U.S. trof become established in the mid/upper
levels. This pattern will allow for a Thursday-Friday reinforcing
(but much weaker) cold front to move through the area. Currently, this
pattern looks to hold into the weekend and on into the start of next
week. Some gradual warming can be expected as winds come back around
to the south and southeast, but moisture levels look to be too low
for any rain development. 42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will continue through
Sunday night. A strong cold front will move into and through the
coastal waters late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Winds
will shift to the north behind the front and strengthen, and small
craft advisories will be needed for the development of the strong
winds and rough bay waters/seas. Wind gusts could possibly increase
to near gale force Monday night. Decreasing winds and seas can be
expected late Tuesday into midweek as high pressure builds into
the area and the gradient weakens. A reinforcing and much weaker
front is still anticipated to move into the waters Thursday or
Friday. The offshore flow behind this front will quickly swing
back around to onshore over the weekend.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  70  89  67  77  54 /   0   0  10  40  10
Houston (IAH)          71  90  73  82  59 /   0   0   0  50  10
Galveston (GLS)        77  86  78  86  66 /  10  10   0  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

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