Friday, September 4, 2020

Sep. 4 20

 Well a way more active scene weather wise from the bedroom window of my house today in northwest Houston, TX, than the previous days this week. Still no rain but saw lightning around 12 am. And then heard rumbles of thunder with maybe a lightning strike or two during the afternoon and maybe late morning and evening. Thick low stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky during the early morning and at my house in northwest Houston, TX. Light to dark grey, storm looking cumulus clouds covered most of the sky during the mid-morning through the evening. White low to medium and high, white stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky during the night at my house in northwest Houston, TX. So still no rain for my house in northwest Houston, TX this week, but it does look like a good portion of the Houston, TX area got some scattered rain to thunderstorm activity today. A little bummed that I did not get to see the rain but there will be more storms to come and see.

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 042322
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020

.AVIATION...
Outflow dominated shra/tstm should taper off in the next several
hours with the loss of heating. Generally VFR conditions
anticipated overnight, though with wet ground and light wind can`t
totally exclude some patchy fog. Similar set-up expected tomorrow.
Moisture rich air, remnant boundaries and daytime heating should
set the stage for additional convection Saturday. Once convective
temps in the 87-91 degree range are met in the early-mid afternoon,
anticipate precip to develop and expand in coverage. Most areal
coverage anticipated generally north of an Edna-Liberty line. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2020/
SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday Night]...
Weak upper level ridging will help to keep any shower/thunderstorm
coverage fairly isolated for Mon/Labor Day. Will keep temperatures
on the warmer side of MOS, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Low
temperatures should range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s
at the coast.

Rain chances will be on the increase by Tues as a strong upper level
disturbance moves in from the W/SW and help to deepen the weak upper
trough over the state. This feature along with a surge of 2-2.2 inch
PWs from the Gulf should account for more scattered/numerous showers
and thunderstorms Tues afternoon/night. SE TX could see a very brief
break in the activity early Weds, but the subsequent approach of the
cold front during the day Weds should initiate more storms along and
ahead of this line. As per the 12Z runs, models appear to be in much
better consensus with the timing of this boundary and the pattern in
its wake. Did trend grids drier for the latter part of the week with
most of the guidance keeping the offshore flow in place through late
Fri at the very least. 41

Long Term [Monday through Friday]...
Weak upper level ridging will help to keep any
shower/thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated for Mon/Labor Day.
Will keep temperatures on the warmer side of MOS, with highs in
the lower to mid 90s. Low temperatures should range from the mid
70s inland to the lower 80s at the coast.

Rain chances will be on the increase by Tues as a strong upper level
disturbance moves in from the W/SW and help to deepen the weak upper
trough over the state. This feature along with a surge of 2-2.2 inch
PWs from the Gulf should account for more scattered/numerous showers
and thunderstorms Tues afternoon/night. SE TX could see a very brief
break in the activity early Weds, but the subsequent approach of the
cold front during the day Weds should initiate more storms along and
ahead of this line. As per the 12Z runs, models appear to be in much
better consensus with the timing of this boundary and the pattern in
its wake. Did trend grids drier for the latter part of the week with
most of the guidance keeping the offshore flow in place through late
Fri at the very least. 41

MARINE...
Winds have been generally light and out of the east-northeast
thanks to high pressure to our north. Nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the overnight and early morning
hours into the weekend. Early afternoon showers and thunderstorms
may be possible over the bays if they get an early start, but as
the seabreeze pushes inland, it is more likely to be sunny.

Look for winds to veer back onshore early next week in
anticipation of a potential cold front entering the region towards
the middle of the week. There is not much confidence yet as to how
strong this front will be and if it will cross the waters, but if
it is strong enough to reach the waters, we can expect elevated
winds and seas just before and after the front passes. We will
attempt to become more specific about this front as we gain more
confidence in its impacts on the area.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      71  90  71  93  73 /  60  60  10  20   0
Houston (IAH)              76  92  77  95  78 /  20  40   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)            83  91  83  93  83 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
     Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
     Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

No comments:

Post a Comment