Low to high, white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, at my house, Bellaire area, Heights, and Katy, TX, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I think there was a 20 percent chance of rain. I heard light rain falling at my house in northwest Houston, TX, when I woke up around 5 am. I stopped hearing and feeling the light rain, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, around 7 am. I did not see or feel any more raindrops after that. The day was hot.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 172338 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 638 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]... Iso-SCT SH/TS have been gradually strengthening and expanding across the northern half of the CWA during the last three hours of so and are expected to slowly sink a little more southward in the next hour or so. Another area of convection over the southern counties is now slowly dissipating. By early tonight, expect activity to cease. For the overnight hours, WX will be tranquil with N-NE winds at 5-10 KTS. By Friday morning, winds will pick up across the region and are to increase to around 8-12 KTS with higher gusts on occasion. A drier air mass moving into the CWA will help limit shower and thunderstorm activity. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020/ NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Some scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed mainly west of the I-45 corridor. These are expected to dissipate early in the night with the lack of heating providing the supportive instability. Over night a cold front is expected to move through the area late, but not looking to being much active weather with it. With the timing of the front, most lows tonight will not see much change. Northern counties will drop in the low 70 and mid to upper 70s for the coastal areas. 35 SHORT TERM [Friday through Sunday Night]... A pleasant weekend for most of the area. Chances of rain decrease ofter the cold front Thursday night into Friday morning. For The weekend, showers look to remain in the coastal waters with some chances of morning showers along the coastal counties. Outside of that, drier air dominates and cooler air is welcomed. Tomorrow`s highs remain in the upper 80s to low 90s but lows are forecasted to drop into the mid 60s for northern counties ad low to mid 70s for the coastal. Highs for Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the mid 80s and low in the mid to upper 60s with 70s along the coast. As we wrap up the weekend on Sunday, some higher chances of rain as we see some of the effects of a disturbance in the gulf. While mainly a coastal waters impact, bands of showers are possible starting Monday afternoon and through the night. We will also see an increase in the winds, mainly along the coastal counties. Easterly winds of around 15-25 mph are expected and could gust up to 30-35 mph along the coast. Needless to say, that will end the pleasantly drier air for the next few days. 35 LONG TERM [Monday through Wednesday]... Unfortunately, this part of the forecast looks to be the part with the most uncertainty as extended models continue with a variety of solutions with regard to that tropical disturbance (or whatever it becomes) near the Bay of Campeche. NHC is expecting this system to strengthen in the next day or so, but thereafter, not a great deal of consensus with its eventual track over the weekend/next week. A weak steering flow via the broad flat upper ridging building across the Southern Plains appear to be the main factors for any possible track. At this time, we are not anticipating any direct impacts to SE Texas beyond increasing seas, elevated tides/water run-up along the coast. However, we` ll continue to monitor this system closely over the next several days and (hopefully) global models come into better agreement. 41 AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... VCSH leading into VCTS for the afternoon and evening at the TAF sites. Outside of the evening showers and possible airmass convection, VFR conditions will prevail. At this time, no lowered ceilings are expected overnight and into tomorrow morning as drier air advects into the area. With that said, tomorrow is looking to remain VFR with only coastal impacts of chances of showers along the LBX and GLS areas. Higher wind speeds and some gusts are also expected for the TAF sites tomorrow. 35 MARINE and TROPICAL... Potential for a prolonged, and potentially significant, coastal flood event this weekend into next week... Water levels are running around 1.5 ft above normal so will maintain the Coastal Flood Statement for the limited/localized minor issues that crop up around times of high tide. A cold front & drier air will move into the Gulf waters Friday morning. Look for an increase of northeast winds as this occurs. SCEC flags may be needed at some point during the day then eventually SCA criteria by Friday night as winds/seas further build. The tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf is forecast to become better organized and likely form into a depression or storm. With the front off the coast, and a general lack of steering flow, it`ll likely meander around the northwest Gulf well into the weekend. The proximity of the front and the disturbance will create a tight pressure gradient between the two...setting up a long fetch of moderate to strong ne/ene winds off the upper Tx coast. Gale warnings may be required offshore later this weekend. This scenario appears that it may last well into the early-midweek period of next week especially with any tropical system lingering offshore. Large seas/surf, tides well above normal, and strong ene winds will essentially pile water up along the upper coast and it`ll basically become trapped until we can get out of this pattern - one way or the other. This set-up has the potential to become a significant event...producing beach erosion, transportation issues (both coastal/marine), impact street drainage, and cause possible inundation of some beach/bay communities. Too early for location specific impacts, but increasing concern period is from Sat night onward as observed water levels possibly exceed 4.5-5.5 MLLW. Though no two storms are ever exactly alike, nor am I implying that etc, the general set-up sort of reminds me of TS Frances here in 1998. In regards to the eventual evolution of the tropical system...I`ll defer to the the experts at NHC. Attm, steering flow isn`t easily resolved as it basically looks trapped for a period of time. Anticipate a wide range & changing model solutions for the next several days. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 87 64 84 60 / 20 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 74 90 68 87 65 / 20 10 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 79 88 75 86 73 / 40 20 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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