Low, white and grey stratus clouds covered almost the whole sky, during the early, mid, and maybe late morning, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, and the Medical Center in Houston, TX, where I went to drop off my dad for his Doctors appointment. low, mid, to high, white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky, during the afternoon and evening, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, when I went to pick up my dad from the Medical Center in Houston, TX, Southwest Houston, TX, where I went to get cats from a foster, and Katy, TX. The day was hot. The wind speeds were calm with some possible 15 mph gusts. No rain that I know of for the Houston, TX area. I did not see any rain. There was a 20 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 150241 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 941 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated inland and only lingering along the boundary in the nearshore waters and into and near the coastal troughing off the Coastal Bend. Skies overnight should be partly cloudy north to cloudy southwest with high clouds. Overnight expect temperatures to be much like last night with perhaps a degree cooler across the north than last night. Tuesday looks to start off with clouds and little if any rain inland then during peak of afternoon heating widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop mainly south and west. Hurricane Sally slowing noticeably the last few hours and the southern eyewall was ragged/broken but this is looking likely to reorganize after the intrusion of dry air. No significant impacts for SETX though the swell train is rolling through the coastal waters and the wave periods at Buoy 42019 have increased to 9-10 seconds. The duration of these elevated seas should be fairly short lived and expect the swells to start diminishing 6-9 am Tuesday. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR across the area though a few showers or thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of Galveston along the boundary. Stratus deck should develop over the northern areas near 12z and IFR/MVFR conditions persisting through 14-15z mainly over the CXO/UTS/CLL terminals but may sneak down into IAH for an hour or two but not very confident it will expand that far south. VFR conditions follow with northerly winds 5-13kts. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/... .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... A robust short wave will will be oriented from NE to SW across the state. Initially, thoughts were that the s/wv would be strong enough to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms Thu/Fri but lackluster jet dynamics and a wedge of drier air filtering into the are from the NE have reduced confidence in widespread precipitation. Looks like the best rain chances Thu/Fri will be over the SW zones and toward the coast as a weak upper low forms over South Texas and drier air continues to move into the area from the NE on Friday. Fcst soundings show convective temperatures between 85-88 degrees both days so diurnally driven shra/tsra should still be possible both days. High pressure over the northern Great lakes on Friday night will ridge into the area and drier air will gently ooze into the region from the north. A weak coastal trough will also try to develop off the Middle and Deep South Texas coast. At this time, it looks like the drier air will dominate on Saturday but by Sunday a well defined coastal trough will begin to focus moisture along the coast. East winds over the Gulf will converge with N-NE winds over land and this boundary will serve as a focus for shra/tsra Sun Nite and Monday. Highest rain chances will again focus near the coast and offshore. Some model differences noted in the long term as the Canadian and ICON hold the dry air in place while the GFS is very aggressive with the moisture return and PW values reach 2.35 inches. Will lean toward the conservative NBM for PoPs. 43 .MARINE... The main story will be increasing seas and large swells today into Tuesday as Hurricane Sally moves into the LA and MS border. Early this afternoon, surface observations from buoys reported winds around 15 to 20 knots with seas from 3 to 5 feet. This trend will continue tonight into Tuesday, with the greatest impact over the offshore waters. A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline is in effect for the entire marine zones. Light northwest to northeast flow is expected Tuesday afternoon into late Wednesday with seas from 1 to 3 feet. Gusty surface winds and increasing seas return Friday into the weekend as a surface front slides southward into our region. The passage of this frontal boundary could bring northeast winds from 15 to 20 knots at times and seas up to 5 feet. Caution flags or advisories may be required. Precipitation-wise, different troughs will move through the region, producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each night. The best chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday and Friday and then again on Sunday as another trough moves in. 05 .TROPICAL... The tropics remain quite active as we remain near the peak of an abnormally active season as a whole. The main concern across the Gulf continues to be TS Sally, which is expected to strengthen to hurricane status before making landfall near the MS/LA border tomorrow. Aside from increasing seas due to the system`s swells, SE Texas is not expected to receive any direct impacts. Elsewhere, the NHC continues to monitor Hurricane Paulette, TD Renee, TD Twenty, and two tropical waves near the Cape Verde Islands. At this time, current forecast guidance suggests that none of these systems will pose a direct impact to SE Texas. The most up-to-date forecast information can be found at www.hurricanes.gov. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 90 72 91 72 / 20 20 0 30 20 Houston (IAH) 77 95 76 94 76 / 10 20 0 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 94 81 92 80 / 20 20 20 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE/LONG TERM...41
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