Friday, September 25, 2020

Sep. 25 20

High white alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, at my house and in my neighborhood in northwest Houston, TX, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were calm with maybe some light gusts. There was no rain that I could see, or feel. I don't think there was any chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. The day was warm.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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782
FXUS64 KHGX 252333
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to start the TAF period but with clear
skies, light winds and wet grounds from recent rain, feel there
will again be some potential for areas of fog overnight. Not sure
how widespread or dense fog will get but the potential is there
for some pockets of dense fog. The fog should be shallow and burn
off early on Saturday with VFR ceilings possible through the
morning morning transitioning to no ceilings by evening. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Afternoon]...
Another quiet evening with light winds and clearing skies in the
early evening with the loss of heating. A brief penetration of the
seabreeze possible late this afternoon into the early evening for
areas within about 5 miles of the coast.  Tonight patchy fog/areas
of fog will likely be developing after 3 am for the inland areas
especially in the more rural locations with radiational cooling.

Fog dissipating quickly Saturday morning between 7-8 am with heating
and then development of shallow CU and capping aloft as upper speed
max approaches from the southwest. Moisture return starts and slow
rise in BL depth and temperatures should rise into the mid to upper
80s. An isolated shower may be possible east and northeast of the
Trinity bay area but chances look slim as upper trough moves through
the area.

45

LONG TERM...[Saturday Night through Friday]

It will be a little warmer Saturday night through Sunday night as winds
come back around to the southeast and south in response to deepening
low pressure in the Texas panhandle-West Texas area. Rain is not expected
to come back into the picture until late Sunday night through Monday
when a strong cold front sweeps through the area. Best rain chances
currently look like during the day on Monday ahead of the front with
the higher values across ports of our northeast and east counties.
Rainfall totals will not be bad at all (nothing even close to what
we saw with Beta) due partly to the fast movement of the front (wettest
spots might see 1/4 to 1/2 inch). Behind the front, expect falling
temperatures along with possible breezy conditions developing inland
and breezy/windy conditions developing near and along the coast Monday
afternoon and especially Monday night and Tuesday in response to a
tightened pressure gradient. With strong ridging developing out west
and a deep trough developing out east, look for cooler nights (lows
mainly in the 50s inland and in the 60s at the beaches), not as warm
days (highs the 70s/80s) and much lower humidities for the remainder
of the week as September comes to an end and October begins).  42

MARINE...
Mild conditions expected tonight through Sunday with winds varying
from northeasterly around to the south then gradually increasing
Saturday night into Sunday. Winds may briefing increase to SCEC
conditions Sunday night in the Matagorda Bay area and the waters to
the south.

A strong cold front will move through SETX Monday and off the coast
between 8am and noon. CAA signals all showing a stronger cold front
and forcing indicating the potential for a line of showers or storms
to accompany parts of the front that isn`t capped. After the FROPA
winds should quickly ramp up to SCA conditions with sustained 20+
knot winds and stronger gusts. Winds of 25-30 knots will be with
possible Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Winds should
relax Tuesday afternoon/evening as surface high settles over the
coast.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      64  85  67  89  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              65  86  69  89  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            75  84  76  87  79 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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