Low white/light greyish stratus clouds looked to cover the whole, or most of the sky during the early morning, at my house in northwest Houston, TX. The sky began to become clearer and high, white, thin stratus clouds started to become scattered across the sky, during the mid-morning, at my house in Northwest Houston, TX. The high white, thin stratus clouds started to turn into low, thick, white/greyish stratus clouds during the early afternoon, at my house and neighborhood in northwest Houston, TX. I started to hear low rumbles of thunder as the clouds got thicker and darker at around 4:40 pm, at my house in Northwest Houston, TX. A moderately heavy thunderstorm passed over my house in northwest Houston, TX at around 5 PM and lasted until around 6 PM. Light rain with a few rumbles of thunder continued on through 7 PM. High, white, and thin stratus clouds began to become scattered across the sky as the storm clouds rolled away around 8 PM, at my house in northwest Houston, TX. The sky looked hazy and mostly clear apart from maybe some high, white, thin, stratus clouds, during the late-night, at my house in northwest Houston, TX. The day started out very hot but then became warm during the late afternoon and continued on through the night.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 062350 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 650 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020 .AVIATION... Convection around the IAH terminal should begin tapering off in the next 2 hours. Same goes for the remainder of the outflow dominated activity across the region as we lose daytime heating. VFR conditions expected overnight, though like last night wouldn`t be overly surprised to see some very patchy & localized fog/low cigs outside the metro areas. Hires guidance points toward a very similar setup for Monday, but slightly less overall precip coverage. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2020/ SHORT TERM [Tonight through Labor Day Afternoon]... High pressure still holding the lid on storms across the northeast but where the deeper moisture persists in the southwest counties and more favorable seabreeze convergence seeing development of showers and thunderstorms. Expect these to increase in coverage through 5 pm then start to diminish and shift a little further inland. Loss of heating should spell the demise of these and overnight a quiet night with some cirrus traversing the area. The mid level upper ridging centered over Galveston Bay this afternoon wobbles first southwest into the Gulf waters south of Matagorda overnight then eastward to south of LA by Monday afternoon. This should help to moisten up the column and reduce some of this afternoon`s CIN. Toward morning showers developing in the nearshore waters and spreading inland during the morning hours. Humidity will be be a tad higher and heat indices should be climbing rapidly along the immediate coast and 103- 105 will be possible there by noon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon mainly the Liberty-Houston-Columbus area southward more isolated to the north. 45 LONG TERM [Labor Day Evening Through Sunday]... The beginning of the work week still looks to be a wet one with global models continuing to indicate strong onshore moisture transport which should push surface PWs into the 1.75 to 2.0 in range. Meanwhile, the approach of a shortwave trough axis on Tuesday will prove favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the approach of the front. The weak jet streak noted in yesterday`s discussion does not look quite as formidable, but much of the area should still be situated in its left exit region. Have continued to keep PoPs highest west of the I-45 corridor with model guidance continuing to show best moisture availability in and around Matagorda Bay. The main weather story in the extended term continues to be the approach of a cold front on Wednesday and Thursday. For those hoping to step outside and feel crisp autumn air on your face, the 12Z suite of deterministic model solutions unfortunately has some bad news for you. The past few model cycles have exhibited a notable contrast between the GFS & ECMWF depictions of the approaching front, with the GFS brining the boundary through SE TEX and into the coastal waters and the ECMWF keeping it mostly out of the CWA. With the 12Z runs, the GFS has backed off on both the strength and speed of the front as now looks to approach the area late Wednesday night and reach the coastal waters during the day on Thursday. Weaker advection behind the front, although bringing temps and dew points down to more comfortable levels, have brought the solution closer to the ECMWF`s numbers. This shift has been reflected in the latest national blends, and as a result have bumped up temps in the extended forecast. Still expecting shower and thunderstorm development along the boundary, and have kept PoPs in the 40-70% range through Thursday morning. With that being said, all hope is not yet lost for those looking for a true taste of fall as the 18Z NAM still favors a stronger boundary to approach the area by late Wednesday, though slowing considerably compared to the 12Z run. Will need to watch future runs as the frontal passage moves further into the NAM`s temporal range. Behind the departing front, lingering showers and storms should persist through Thursday. Offshore flow looks to take hold well into the weekend, which should keep inland dew points in the 60s and, highs in the upper 80s to around 90, and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. ECMWF solution continues to show the approach of an inverted trough heading into the weekend, which will support the development of additional scattered to isolated showers and storms. Cady MARINE... The lighter winds across the region today and Monday will give way to stronger southeasterly flow Tuesday as the aforementioned upper trough digs down into the 4 Corners and the ENE. The main issue is the cold front Wednesday late or Thursday...the models have trended slower with the frontal push to the coast and weaker with the ensuing CAA...have trended that way as well with the arrival time more along the lines of Thursday morning with SCEC conditions in the wake of the front persisting through Friday. Still a good deal of uncertainty on the timing and strength of the front. Stay tuned. Across the tropical Atlantic will be watching the 4 systems of interests. Currently the greatest chances for intensification appear to be over the MDR and likely posing no threat to SETX with these headed north into the Central Atlantic per the GFS/ECMWF. Will need to keep an eye on the system in the Caribbean which may struggle to develop much if at all but could eventually bring some deeper moisture into the southwestern Gulf Friday/Saturday. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 93 73 89 72 / 0 10 0 50 50 Houston (IAH) 76 95 77 91 77 / 30 20 10 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 89 81 / 10 20 10 50 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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