The sky was mostly clear with some mid, wide, white and light grey stratus clouds scattered across the sky, at my house in northwest Houston, TX and where I work in the Heights, during the morning. Low to high stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the afternoon, evening, and maybe night, where I work in the heights and in northwest Houston, TX. A massive blueish grey stratus cloud covered about half of the sky, during the late afternoon and evening, bringing on and off light rain, where I work in northwest Houston, TX, and on my way home in northwest Houston, TX. The day was hot.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 170011 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 711 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]... VFR conditions at all TAF sites along with some persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across portions of the CWA. Convection is expected to dissipate early tonight and skies will continue to lift and scatter out. Some passing showers are possible late tonight into early Thursday morning along the Gulf waters and coastal regions. By around late morning into afternoon on Thursday, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to move into or develop along the western and northern portions of the CWA. The air mass will be a bit drier than today however, so precip could just end up being more on the isolated/weaker side of things. Thus, kept VCSH/VCTS in this TAF package for most TAF sites from the late morning into the late afternoon hours. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]... Scattered showers & tstms sw of the metro area (where deeper moisture is situated) and isolated activity elsewhere should generally wane with the loss of heating, but some remnant activity developing well west may pass across overnight in a weakened state. The base of the elongated trof axis stretching from Arkansas into west Tx will begin edging ese tonight into Thurs. Associated weak impulses embedded in the flow aloft and remnant 1.8-2.1" PW`s should allow for some sct precip again on Thurs with daytime heating & once temps climb into the upper 80s. We should see a frontal boundary and associated drier airmass filter in from the northeast later Thursday night setting the stage for a nice beginning to the longer term fcst... 47 LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... We will be losing the upper-level support for precipitation on Friday as the trough axis moves over the area and to the east. However, elevated PWATS near 1.75 inches combined with daytime heating will lead to isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A cold front is still anticipated to move southward across the area Friday. However, this boundary really won`t be bringing much of a change in temperatures across the area, but it will be bringing a much welcomed change towards drier air. Sub-one inch PWATs is expected over most of the region over the weekend with dewpoints down into the 50s or low 60s. There is a bit of a disagreement between the GFS and EC in how far south the dry air gets. The GFS has the upper level trough that is over Texas on Friday slowing down and deepening over Louisiana through the weekend. This keeps the moisture content over Texas slightly higher. The EC is the drier of the two solutions as it quickly kicks the trough eastward allowing for the stronger high pressure to develop across the central and eastern CONUS (though it does leave a broad cutoff low in the SW Gulf that we will get to later). Used mainly the NBM for the dewpoint temperatures this weekend, but did blend in a bit more EC. There will be a slight chance to a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through the long term period along the coast where some higher PWATs remain. Temperatures through the long term will remain fairly consistent maximum daytime temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s each day with low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Northern Houston County may get to near 60 overnight this weekend with the drier air moving in. There will be a fairly broad area of low pressure developing near the Bay of Campeche/SW Gulf of Mexico over the weekend into early next week. There are favorable conditions for TC development in this area in the coming days, and the NHC has given this system a 50% chance of development over the next two days and a 70% chance of development within the next five. There is not much of a steering flow, so it will just sorta meander around the SW Gulf into midweek next week. There is not much confidence where it will go once if it develops since exactly where and when it forms will ultimately drive that. While there is not immediate threat to SE Texas at this time, we will continue to monitor the area in the coming days for any potential impacts. Fowler MARINE and TROPICAL... Water levels are still running 1.5-2.0 ft above normal in association with Sally. Standing water still remains on some low lying coastal roads. As we head into low tide this evening, levels should diminish, but may see a few issues crop up at the next high tide cycle around 4 am. Coastal Flood Statement is out covering that. Otherwise, light northerly flow and low seas expected through the day tomorrow. A cold front will move into the waters Thurs night and winds (and building seas) may pick up to SCEC criteria...then eventually SCA criteria by Friday night. The tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf is forecast to become better organized and likely form into a depression at some point in the next several days. With the front off the coast, it`ll likely meander around west and west central parts of the Gulf well into the weekend. The proximity of the front and the disturbance will create a tight pressure gradient between the two...setting up a long fetch of moderate to strong ne/ene winds off the upper Tx coast. Expect building seas, increasing tide levels (possibility of coastal flooding), and for waters well offshore a higher chance of precipitation. This scenario may last well into the early-midweek period of next week. Steering flow isn`t yet too clear beyond the weekend & dependent on several factors (eventual frontal position/decay, strength of ridging to north, etc)...so anticipate a wide range & changing model solutions for the next several days. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 89 69 87 66 / 20 40 30 20 0 Houston (IAH) 75 91 72 91 70 / 30 30 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 90 77 87 77 / 20 30 30 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Aviation...24
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