Saturday, September 12, 2020

Sep. 11 20

 Low, white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky during the early and mid-morning at my house in northwest Houston, TX, and where I work in the Heights. Low, white and grey stratus clouds started to become scattered across the sky, sometime during the early afternoon, or maybe late morning, where I work, at the Heights. Low to high white to grey and blue stratus clouds covered most of the sky, during the mid-afternoon, through the evening, at my house in northwest Houston, TX and where I work in the Heights. The sky looked to have become clear, or mostly clear, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the early night. The sky looked to be clear, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the late night. A moderately heavy shower passed over where I work in the Heights from around 4:20 PM to around 4:50 PM. I did not see any more rain after that. The day was dry and warm during the morning, late afternoon, evening, and night. It became hot and humid, sometime during the early, or mid-afternoon.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 120432
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1132 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Skies clearing out over the area and should remain VFR through 10z
then some patchy MVFR/IFR CIGS possible for CXO/UTS/CLL through
14z. CU developing around 14z and should continue through the
afternoon. As the deeper moisture spreads into the area from the
east expect to see a band of showers/thunderstorms develop to the
east of the terminals shifting west and nearing the CXO-IAH-GLS
terminals 20-02z and will be continuing with the VCSH/VCTS and
have added a PROB30 for GLS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 834 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020/...





.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Still have a couple of storms/showers dissipating left on
radar...and plenty of bats/bugs blasting off. Band of elevated
moisture and the departing entrance region of the upper jet out
into the Gulf should spell the end of the lift and showers.
Overnight expect skies to clear and temperatures to fall into the
mid to upper 60s north and still remain balmy in the upper 70s to
around 80 on the coast. Tomorrow still looking like moisture
rotates into the area from the east in the afternoon and rain
chances to increase in the afternoon over the southeastern half of
the area.
45


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

Kind of a messy and complicated long term forecast for SE TX. On
Saturday night, a weak area of low pressure will try to develop in
the central Gulf of Mexico and slowly meanders W-SW toward NE Mexico.
This feature will toss some moisture to the N-NW of the center and
bring coastal areas a chance of rain Saturday night. The surface low
coupled with a weak trough over the midwest will bring additional
showers and storms on Sunday. Fcst soundings show PW values
increasing to 2.25 inches, virtually no capping and convective temps
in the upper 80`s. The low over the extreme southern Gulf loses it`s
influence over SE TX but a second area of disturbed weather over the
Bahamas will cross FL over the weekend and emerge over the eastern
Gulf on Monday. There is very little shear over the Gulf and despite
some upwelling from Laura, the gulf waters remain quite warm so some
intensification of this system looks likely. The aforementioned upper
level trough over the midwest should tug this feature N-NW toward
the LA coast. Much can/will change by the middle to end of next week
so it`s be wise to keep up with the latest forecasts. Model trends
support a brief decrease in moisture levels Tue/Wed as SE TX lies
between the decaying system well to the south and the deepening
system off to the east. As the developing system to the east nudges
closer Thursday and beyond, moisture levels perk back up to between
2.20 and 2.40 inches with convective temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 80`s. A well defined shear axis will also develop
across SE TX Thu-Fri with a weak surface trough developing from the
surface low (over Arkansas) extending across SE TX. Rain chances
look likely both days. Conditions should begin to dry out again next
weekend as upper level ridging over the southern Rockies expands
into Texas. 43


.MARINE...

A weak surface boundary remains along the nearshore waters,
producing north wind gusts around 15 knots. Winds will gradually
decrease this evening and a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
category will not be required. Residual boundary (or boundaries) and
a well-saturated low to mid level layer will lead to isolated
showers and thunderstorms overnight into early Saturday. We will
then transition to a more unsettled weather pattern late this
weekend into next week as a couple of disturbances with a potential
for tropical development move through the Gulf. The first easterly
wave approaches the region Saturday night into Sunday and the next
system moves close to our region towards the end of next week. An
increased influx of moisture and instability will be likely
throughout the week, with locally gusty winds and increased waves
with any storms. Uncertainty with the evolution of these systems and
its impacts across Southeast Texas remain high; therefore, continue
to monitor the latest forecasts for more details. For more tropical
weather information, visit the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  68  89  72  92  73 /   0   0   0  30  20
Houston (IAH)          74  93  76  95  76 /  10  10  20  50  30
Galveston (GLS)        80  91  82  91  81 /  10  10  40  60  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...45

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