Thursday, September 24, 2020

Sep. 24 20

 Low blueish grey stratus clouds covered the whole sky, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, and the Heights area where I work, during the early morning. Low blueish grey stratus clouds covered the whole sky, in the Heights area where I work, during the mid and late morning, and afternoon. Low blueish grey stratus clouds covered the whole sky, on my way home in northwest Houston, TX, from where I work in the Heights area, during the evening. Low, greyish stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky, at my house, during the night. With speeds were calm with some moderate gusts. The day felt warm with some little cool winds. There was no rain for the Houston, TX area that I know of. There may have been a 10 to 20 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I think I may have seen some light drizzle during the early morning and felt a few drops throughout the day. It had looked like it wanted to/was going to rain all day but it never did. 

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242339
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.AVIATION...
Short term guidance remains bullish in eroding the MVFR ceilings
that have plagues the area over the last 24 hours. There are signs
that the cloud deck has begun to erode from the both the north and
west. However with the loss of heating limiting mixing and
allowing the inversion to strengthen, not at all confident on when
the ceilings will actually break. If skies do clear, we need to
watch for fog to develop. fcst soundings show a mix of MVFR/VFR
cigs lingering for much of Friday before VFR conditions develop
late Friday. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/

SHORT TERM...[Tonight through Friday Afternoon]...

The main issue is cloud cover with an extensive blanket across the
region this afternoon that should persist through mid morning
Friday. Winds relaxing tonight and may even become calm in a few
inland locations. Eventually Friday mid morning northeasterly winds
will prevail trending toward the east by late Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will not have a big range with highs this afternoon in
the mid to upper 70s falling slowly into the lower 60s north to near
70 on the coast. Temperatures Friday should rise into the lower to
mid 80s (but if the clouds erode sooner then temperatures will need
a nudge up). Rain chances remain very low but a spit or two of
drizzle is possible it isn`t likely.

45

LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...

Our fairly dry and generally benign weather pattern continues
into the weekend as a broad area of surface high pressure sits
over the south-central CONUS/northern Gulf of Mexico. As this high
shifts slowly to the east by Saturday, look for a return to
southerly winds by the evening hours. While this should result in
a slight uptick in surface dew points, an overall weak pressure
gradient will prevent deeper low-level moisture over the central
Gulf from reaching the area. As a result, total PW values should
remain in the vicinity of 1.0 in through the duration of the
weekend. The latest ECMWF & GFS runs continue to place SE TX
within the left front quadrant of a jet streak associated with a
developing upper low to our west on Saturday, though the
aforementioned lack of near-surface moisture should inhibit any
widespread precipitation development. While an isolated shower or
two isn`t out of the question, was not confident enough to include
any mentions of PoPs in the forecast.

The major story of the extended period continues to be the approach
of a surface cold front early next week. Model consensus over the
past few runs has sped up the approach of this feature, which now
looks to reach the northern counties by Monday morning, pushing
through the metro area throughout the day and advancing offshore in
the early evening. National blends continue to be conservative with
rainfall along the front. Have increased PoPs on Monday given the
recent trend of a stronger frontal passage (850-700mb frontogenesis
continues to show a strong signal in both GFS & ECMWF solutions) to
around 30-40%, as convergence along the advancing boundary should be
sufficient to generate scattered showers and storms.

In the wake of the front, look for a shift to moderate to strong
offshore winds and noticeably cooler (dare I say, "fall-like")
conditions. Lows on Monday evening should be the lowest we`ve seen
in quite a while, with most inland areas dipping into the 50s
while the coast will stay in the upper 60s. Persistent surface
high pressure behind the departing front will bring an extended
period of calm, cool, and dry weather to the area. Look for
daytime highs in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s
through the end of the work week.

Cady

MARINE...

Light winds with low seas will prevail through Sunday though
swinging from north to northeast to southeast and south Friday into
Saturday. A strong cold front pushes off the coast Monday morning
and should bring SCEC and SCA conditions Monday afternoon thanks to
strong CAA through Tuesday morning. A reinforcing cold front arrives
Wednesday and should boost winds again with more persistently
northeasterly flow and will be flirting with SCEC conditions
Wednesday through Friday if the forecast remains on the current
track. And the Tropics remain blissfully quiet.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      63  85  63  86  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              65  84  67  86  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            72  81  74  84  76 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43

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