Summary: The sky looked to be clear, during the morning. Small to big white and grey stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. It felt cold, during the early morning. It felt very cool, during the mid-morning. It started to feel warm, during the late morning. It felt warm, during the afternoon and early evening. It felt a little cool, during the late evening and early night. It felt cool, during the late night. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not hear about or see any rain falling anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not feel, or see any rain falling anywhere where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 102333 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 533 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions prevail tonight as higher winds from an approaching cool front will keep fog development to a minimal. Cloud coverage will increase late tonight with some MVFR ceilings starting around 12z in the northwestern flying areas with some showers and chances of thunderstorms after sunrise. The active weather will move ahead of the front and be in the central TAF sites tomorrow afternoon and then the southern areas tomorrow evening. Potential for thunderstorm build up will be the greatest in the evening with some heating breaking a weak cap giving some more cape amd lift for development. Frontal passage is expected after the TAF forecast times but is expected in the central TAF sites around 12/09z. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 318 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020/... .SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]... This afternoon will be the last day of the near 80 degree that Houston will be seeing for at least the next week. The stream of cumulus clouds that have been streaming in from the Gulf all day will be dissipating this evening with the loss of daytime heating. This layer of higher moisture actually helped to generate some pyrocumulus off of a wildfire in Chambers County this afternoon. The clearing skies this evening will only be temporary as cloud coverage expands from the west tonight into Friday morning due to an upper level low approaching the region from the Four Corners region. This large upper level trough will stick around the west CONUS through the short term with multiple shortwaves rounding the base of the trough providing us with periods of unsettled weather. This first shortwave will approach the region Friday, which combined with the moist southerly fetch into the area will mean scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through the day. Precipitation will move in from the NW first reaching the northern Brazos Valley shortly after sunrise. The scattered showers will expand coastward through the morning reaching the City of Houston by Noon, then getting all the way to the coast by the early afternoon. Precipitation will be ending west to east Friday evening with showers moving out of the Brazos Valley by 00z, City of Houston 03z-06z, and then out of the region totally by 09-12z. There will be a chance of some isolated stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon tomorrow. SPC has put most of the area under a Marginal threat for isolated severe thunderstorms, with the main threat being gusty winds. CAM guidance keeps the potential for the strongest storms generally north of I-10. Temperature through the short term has overnight lows tonight warmer than the past few as cloud coverage and southerly flow helps keep temperatures from cooling too much. The same cloud coverage will prevent temperatures from heating too much during the day tomorrow, though highs will still be in the low to mid 70s. The temperature forecast for tomorrow night will be highly dependent on how quickly the associated cold front makes it way through. Generally looking like temperatures will dip down into the 40s across the north, in the low 50s along the I-10 corridor, and upper 50s along the coast - though these temperatures may bust a few degrees in either direction. Fowler .LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday Night]... Main forecast changes: Cold front moving in on Friday will exit the region faster than previous forecasts, bringing drier conditions by Saturday. The cold front should be offshore over the Gulf waters by Saturday morning. Lingering showers cannot be ruled out over the waters through the morning hours. Dry northwest wind quickly filters in behind the departing front, leaving us with a dry and mostly sunny Saturday. Highs will generally be in the 60s. The next precipitation round arrives on Sunday as a Pacific shortwave trough and associated cold front moves through. Confidence in precipitation chances remains medium/moderate. The 12Z GFS, ECMWF and Canadian are in good agreement and suggest precipitation chances ahead of the main frontal passage. On the other hand, NAM solutions leave the region dry. Given model consistency and agreement between most deterministic solutions; have opted out NAM and leaned towards increasing rain and storm chances for Sunday. Most of the precipitation looks to occur along and ahead of a warm front lifting northward into the region throughout the day. Should not be a total washout as PWAT values range from 1 to 1.5 inches and 850 mb dry air quickly filters in from the northwest. On the other hand, confidence is moderate to high on breezy to windy conditions along and behind the frontal passage. Decent CAA and tightening pressure gradients could lead to gusty winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through mid-week as a surface high dominates the region. Sunday night and Monday look to be the coldest day of the long-term period with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s and daytime highs only reaching the 50s. 05 .MARINE... Surface low pressure currently over western Texas will continue to move eastward into the region tonight into Friday. Pressure gradient will continue to increase ahead of the front tonight, producing south to southwest winds in the 15 to 20 knots range. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions are expected tonight over the offshore waters. Will continue to monitor for possible SCA early Friday as seas also increase up to 6-7 ft. The next active period arrives Friday afternoon into early Saturday as the associated cold front moves through. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move along the coast/nearshore during the afternoon hours, quickly moving offshore in the evening. Better precipitation chances are expected from Freeport to High Islands (including its Gulf waters). Cold front moves out of the region by early Saturday, with some lingering showers remaining offhsore. Low to moderate offshore flow by Saturday will gradually shift to the east, then south by late Saturday night as a high pressure moves east of the region. Rain and storm chances return on Sunday ahead of the next cold front moving in by Sunday night. Strong north- northwest winds gusting from 30-35 knots and building seas are also expected during this period. SCA conditions will be likely late Sunday into Monday. Dry weather and light to moderate winds are expected after Monday. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 59 72 47 63 43 / 20 80 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 74 54 66 47 / 10 80 40 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 65 71 60 67 57 / 10 50 40 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowler LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...35 MARINE...05
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