Summary: Low white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky and sometimes only most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts. It felt very cool, during the early morning. It felt cool, during the mid and late morning. It started to feel very cool, sometime during the afternoon. It started to feel cold during the evening. It felt cold, during the early night. It felt very cold, during the late night. Light to moderate and moderately heavy rain with maybe some heavy rain and possible thunderstorms passed through the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I saw light to moderate with some occasional moderately heavy showers through the evening.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 022347 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 547 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... The cold front is making its way through the region this evening with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms popping up along and out ahead of the front. Precipitation chances have already come to an end at CLL, and will shortly come to an end for UTS and CXO. One last band of moderate rain showers will impact IAH between 00-01z with the FROPA, then just some light scattered rain showers through 3z. The front should be off the coast by 3-5z bringing an end to the precipitation threat for the entire region by that point. IFR CIGs of around 700ft are accompanying the FROPA, but expect CIGS to rise to MVFR conditions shortly after the passage with VFR conditions expected by sunrise. The front will be ushering in gusty northwesterly winds behind it with winds picking up overnight across the region and remaining elevated through tomorrow afternoon. The strongest winds will be felt along the coast with GLS seeing wind gusts to near 30kts overnight. Further inland wind gusts should be capped at around 20 to 25kts. Besides the breezy to gusty conditions tomorrow, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the day. Fowler && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 332 PM CST Wed Dec 2 2020/... .SHORT TERM [Rest of Today]... A broad area of rain showers moved across most of the counties that was associated with pre frontal troughing. A low level jet over the area was in phase with the onshore flow and was able to inundate the lower atmosphere with moisture. Though the atmosphere was fairly primed for thunderstorms, not much was in the area for any initial lifting to break through the low CAP over the area. So mainly an abundance of rainfall was seen throughout most of the counties. In the Greater Houston area, some spots exceeded 2" of rainfall but mainly around 1" was the average. So as that moves out the area we make way for the front. Already in the western CWA, the boundary is expected to be in the Houston area over the next few hours and then moving out of the CWA early tonight. Chances of thunderstorm development still exist along and ahead of the frontal boundary. The wedge of cooler air is capable of producing enough lift to kick start a thunderstorm or two though not much CAPE will be in the area and overall stability indicies are not too favorable to much thunderstorm activity. Counties more at risk will be along the coast that have higher CAPE values, more favorable LI values, and overall more unstable. On the bright side, in a matter of hours this will pass and a drier northwesterly flow will set in and skies will progressively clear overnight. 35 .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Wednesday]... As surface high pressure moves into place across the south central CONUS in the wake of today`s frontal passage, we will enter into a period of cooler, drier, and generally benign weather that should last at least into the beginning of next week. A sustained offshore wind pattern will drive down moisture availability substantially over the next 24-36 hours, with global models indicating that most locations will see a reduction in total PW values to well below 0.5 in by Friday afternoon. Although a second upper low looks to approach the SE TX by early Saturday, with much of the region situated within the left front quadrant of an associated upper jet streak, a lack of instability and the aforementioned drop in moisture should inhibit the development of showers and storms. Onshore flow and thereby increasing moisture may return by the end of next week. High temperatures over the extended period will remain below normal for early December, with values in the upper 50s through the end of the work week and lower 60s as we approach the weekend and the early part of next week. Lows will once again dip into the upper 30s to low 40s, though we`re unlikely to see another widespread freeze event as the area experienced on Tuesday. With little instability and limited moisture availability expected through persist through the extended period, have not included any showers/storms in the weather grids through Day 7. All things considered...it should be a great next few days for a family stroll around the neighborhood or backyard campfire in the evening...just don`t forget your jacket or sweatshirt. .MARINE... ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... Storms still firing up over the coastal waters about 70-20 nm off the coast this afternoon and as s/w approaches expecting that it should peak the development about now through 5 pm and then weaken with the loss of heating and slight relaxation of winds ahead of the cold front. High shear environment over the Gulf with impressive supercells/evolution over the last 4 hours. Cold front nearing College Station area at 2 pm should push across the Matagorda Bay early this evening-Galveston Bay by 9 or 10 pm and through the remaining coastal waters by 1 am Wednesday. Strong offshore flow will follow in the wake of the cold front with 20-25 knot sustained winds. Seas will be chaotic and rough with steep waves thanks in large part to the long southeasterly fetch and the opposing surface winds tonight. The strong offshore flow gradually weakens Wednesday after sunrise over the Bays then even more slowly in the afternoon/evening. For now will carry SCA flags for the bays through 15z Wed and Gulf waters through 01z Thu. This strong offshore flow should drop tide levels from the well above normal readings this afternoon to slightly below normal by Wednesday morning. Probably won`t need a low water advisory. Thursday the offshore flow continues as high pressure builds into TX and may still need SCEC/SCA flags on the Gulf waters. Friday through Sunday lighter offshore flow of 5-13 knots continues bringing much calmer conditions and lowered tide levels. The flow may eventually become southwesterly by the middle of next week. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 34 55 35 57 36 / 10 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 41 56 40 56 39 / 80 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 47 58 47 58 50 / 70 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for the following zones: Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for the following zones: Galveston Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CST Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...35 LONG TERM...Cady AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...35
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