Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Dec. 9 20

 Summary: The sky looked to be clear, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, during the day. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops, where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some light gusts. It felt cold, during the early morning. It felt very cool, during the mid-morning. It started to feel warm, during the late morning. It felt warm, during the afternoon and early evening. It felt a little cool, during the late evening. It felt very cool, during the early night.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 092324
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions throughout the forecast period with some favorable
conditions for morning fog development. With the moisture in place
and a decent capping inversion in the lower levels, wind speed is the
only thing that keeps me from going all out FG in the area. The
lower wind speeds will not be quite enough to mix the lower
atmosphere to produce FG but it will be in the area in patches. In
the early morning any fog development will burn off and lift leaving
some fair weather cu in the wake. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 300 PM CST Wed Dec 9 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Thursday Night]...

Southwest winds will shift to the south this evening as the surface
high pressure moves over central Gulf of Mexico. Another quiet night
is expected with lows from the lows 40s far inland to near 60s
across the islands. Forecast soundings suggest patchy shallow fog
and/or low clouds developing around daybreak along and south of I-
10. Any fog/low clouds should dissipate/lift by 7-9AM.

With the thermal ridge in place, strong southerly WAA and 925:850
hPa temperatures in the lower teens Celsius, Thursday is shaping up
to be another warm day. Daytime highs will range from the mid to
upper 70s. Warmest readings possible west of I-45, which is where
better gradient/theta-e component persists. Pressure gradient
becomes slightly tight, therefore, breezy winds are possible during
the afternoon.

As we head into the overnight hours, clouds and rain chances
increase ahead of the next frontal passage expected this weekend.
Rain chances increase by early Thursday morning along and west of a
line from Columbus to Huntsville. 05


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)

A long wave trough over the central and southern Rockies will
begin to move east Friday. Surface low pressure will develop over
North Texas and this feature will move NE and drag a cold front
into the state. A pre-frontal trough will move through SE TX
Friday morning with the actual front crossing the region Saturday
morning. The pre-frontal trough coupled with an increase in
moisture (PW values reach 1.50 inches) and favorable jet dynamics
with 300 mb winds splitting over E-NE Texas will set the stage for
a good chance for shra/tsra Friday morning into the afternoon.
Fcst soundings show some capping in the 850-700 mb layer over the
southern half of the CWA so feel highest rain chances will favor
the north. Surface high pressure will build into Texas on Saturday
in the wake of the front with clearing skies and slightly cooler
temperatures.

By Sunday, another trough will dive southward into the southern
plains. The weak high over Texas will push east with an E-SE low
level flow developing. A weak coastal trough will develop and
bring coastal areas a chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday. A strong surge of high pressure will build into the state
on Sunday afternoon in the wake of the departing coastal trough.
It`s a fairly strong high with pressures building to around 1034
mb. Colder air will filter into the area in the wake of the
trough/cold front. Clear and cool conditions are expected Monday
and Tuesday as high pressure drifts across the state. The high
will be located over the eastern US by Tuesday afternoon with a
return of onshore winds and low level moisture. However, the flow
will quickly reverse in the wake of another cold front that will
cross the area next Tuesday evening.


.MARINE...

High pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico will bring a light
to moderate southwest wind to the coastal waters tonight. The high
will push east on Thursday as low pressure develops in the
panhandle. Winds will back to the south and strengthen in response
to a tightening pressure gradient. A SCEC may be required
Thursday night into Friday as the southerly flow increases. A cold
front will cross the coastal waters on Saturday morning with an
offshore flow developing. A SCEC may be required for parts of the
Gulf on Saturday. A weak coastal trough will develop early Sunday
and this feature will move quickly east as a surge of high
pressure builds into the state. A strong N-NE flow will develop
late Sunday into Sunday night. A SCA will likely be required late
Sunday into early Monday. Winds will become onshore Monday night
as high pressure moves east. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  44  76  59  72  50 /   0   0  20  70  30
Houston (IAH)          48  76  61  73  58 /   0   0  10  70  50
Galveston (GLS)        60  73  65  74  62 /   0   0  10  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...35

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