Summary: The sky looked to be mostly clear with only a few alto stratus clouds in the early and mid-morning. Low white and grey stratus clouds covered most of the sky, during the early afternoon, or maybe late morning through the night. The wind speeds were calm with moderate gusts. It felt very cold, during the early morning. It felt cold, during the mid-morning. It felt cool, during the late morning and evening. It felt very cool, during the afternoon and night. I believe there was a 40 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, where I was, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops where I travelled from the west side and southwest areas of Houston, TX, during any time of the day. It did look like it was going to rain but it did not.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 182359 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 559 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... While only a couple of terminals currently have MVFR CIGs as of now, expecting the inland terminals to gradually transition to this point over the next few hours. GLS and LBX should hold out on getting MVFR conditions until early Saturday morning. This is also when rain showers will begin moving into the area from the west. With this additional moisture, expecting all terminals to drop to IFR from Saturday morning through the passage of a cold front. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary as it moves in from the northwest on early Saturday afternoon. Behind the front, CIGs are expected to scatter out by 22z-23z bringing back VFR conditions for Saturday evening. The northwesterly winds behind the front will be gusty for the coastal terminals with gusts up to 20kts. 26 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/... .DISCUSSION... A busy weather pattern continues into next week, with a front expected to cross the area on Saturday, and another front on Wednesday. While not excessively cold, each front will cool us off to below seasonal averages, but the time following each front will feature fair weather and a warming trend. .SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]... Radar shows swaths of weak echoes across the area, that correlation coefficient reveals to be meteorological. That said, a good bit of that is probably not reaching the ground, but obs reveal that at least some of it is with numerous trace reports of precip coincident with radar echoes passing by. Additionally, some webcams in the area are picking up some drops on their lenses. While not enough to be measurable, that`s going to be changing. Low pressure over the Panhandle is dropping a cold front across West Texas, and that will approach the area late tonight. As it does, the lift along the frontal surface will make rain showers more likely, particularly as the front crosses the area through the day on Saturday. Guidance continues to indicate not a lot of instability. But we have pretty decent frontogenesis progged as well, so we may get enough mechanical forcing to tap into what instability there is and get an isolated lightning strike. Following the frontal passage, we should see colder and drier air surge into the area late Saturday afternoon or Saturday night, which will bring an end to rain and set us up for temps falling into the lower 40s and upper 30s away from the coast late Saturday night. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]... Surface high pressure settling in over the state (in the wake of the cold front Sat) will help to keep cool/dry/quiet conditions in place over SE TX from Sun through next Tues. High temperatures in the mid/ upper 60s on Sun should be slowly warming into the lower 70s by Tues as the light offshore flow become more southeasterly as the surface high moves out of the area. This onshore flow is forecast to pick up Tues night as the gradient tightens further in response to lowering pressures over the Central Plains. We could see some very isolated/ WAA type showers late Tue afternoon/night, but the best chances for rain should be on Wed with the arrival and passage of the next cold front. As these last few model runs have been fairly consistent (in terms of timing), no real arguments with the ongoing grid trends of highest POPs over the southern/eastern portions of the CWA, as well as for the latter part of the day Wed. So, Wed could be the warmest day of the week. Strong and somewhat deep ridging building into the area in the wake of Wed`s system should bringing clear/cold conditions for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. High temperatures these two days could range from the mid 50s to lower 60s...with lows in the mid and upper 30s. .MARINE... Onshore flow has prompted caution flags on the Gulf. Low pressure over the Texas Panhandle is dropping a cold front into West Texas, and it will approach Southeast Texas late tonight as the low moves east. Warmer, more humid air flowing over cooler shelf waters could produce some patchy fog tonight into Saturday, though winds will likely be too unfavorable to allow more widespread fog. The front moves through the waters Saturday afternoon, and there will be another opportunity for fog to develop over the waters in the lull of wind just before the front arrives until strong post- frontal northwesterlies kick up. Those winds are likely to again exceed the SCEC threshold on the Gulf. Conditions will improve as high pressure settles in, but another front in the middle of next week will bring another period of degraded marine weather. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 64 37 63 37 / 60 60 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 57 67 44 64 41 / 40 80 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 62 68 51 63 50 / 40 90 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 AM CST Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs SHORT TERM...Luchs LONG TERM...41 AVIATION...26 MARINE...Luchs
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