Sunday, December 13, 2020

Dec. 13 20

 Summary: Dark grey stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky, during the early morning. White and grey stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky, from the late, or maybe mid-morning through the early afternoon. White to grey low to high stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky from sometime during the late or mid-afternoon, or maybe early evening through the night, I think. It felt cool, during the morning and early afternoon. It started to feel very cool, sometime during the late, or maybe mid-afternoon. It felt very cool, during the evening. It felt cold, during the early night. The wind speeds looked to be light with moderate gusts, during the morning and early afternoon. Strong 20 to 30 plus wind gusts were freguent through the early night. On and off light to moderate and moderately heavy with maybe some heavy showers and thunderstorms passed through the Houston, TX area, from the morning, through the evening. 

Thoughts: It is really windy out there! I have not seen these type of strong wind gusts at my house in a while. Not sure how strong the wind gusts were but they bent a small tree over and completely through the dollar store thermometer off of the wall. Pretty epic. 

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 132329
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

FROPA has passed through the TAF sites now and NW/N winds have made
a presence. Northern flying areas are gusting to 25KTs and 35KTs, or
more along the coastal sites. Winds will stay around the same over
night and decrease in the early morning tomorrow.  MVFR to IFR
ceilings are setting in now as well from the north at around 010 and
will settle in to around the same in the southern terminals withing
an hour and GLS by 03z. CIGs and VIS will linger through the night
and most of the day tomorrow, until the afternoon. Towards the end
of most of the TAF the skies will clear out mostly and a light E/NE
flow will set in until Monday night when it becomes light E/SE
flow. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 337 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow Night]...

A training line of showers and thunderstorms developed across the
coastal counties up through southern Harris and Liberties counties
in the late morning into the early afternoon. This brought a large
swath of 1 to 3 inches of rain to those areas. The cold front
associated with the upper level low swinging through North Texas
moved through the Northern Brazos Valley shortly before 2pm this
afternoon bringing an end to the precipitation, then went through
Houston Metro around 3pm. It will be off the coast between 4 and
5pm. Until this front moves through, there remains a chance that
an isolated strong thunderstorm could develop with the main threat
being strong gusty outflow winds. But this threat will rapidly
come an end at the end in the next couple of hours. Precipitation
chances end region wide by sunset.

Then the focus of the forecast becomes the strong post-frontal winds
that develop tonight. A strong 925mb jet of 40 to 50kts moves across
the area and some of these winds will be mixing down to the surface.
Sustained winds of 20 to 25kts with gust 35 to 40kts will be
possible across much of the area beginning this evening. A wind
advisory will go into effect at 6pm along and west of I-45 and down
along the coast. The inland portion of the Wind Advisory will drop
off at midnight as the LLJ slides east. The coastal zones will carry
the Wind Advisory through 4am as gusty winds will be possible due to
the cold air moving over the generally warmer waters. Then the
weather become rather benign during the day on Monday with partly to
mostly cloudy skies lingering.

Temperatures through the short term will be quite chilly. CAA behind
the cold front will bring lows down into the mid to upper 30s across
the area tonight. Highs on Monday will struggle to get out of the
low 50s. Southerly flow returns Monday night keeping temperatures a
few degrees warmer compared to tonight with increasing clouds.

JPF


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

The increase of southerly flow on Monday night is due to a upper
level disturbance exiting the Four Corners region and enters North
Texas Tuesday morning. This system will continue to progress east
through the day on Tuesday bringing the associated cold front
through SE Texas Tuesday night. The southerly fetch of moisture out
ahead of the cold front will mean that there will be a chance of
precipitation Tuesday afternoon into the evening until the cold
front moves through. High pressure settles in over the region on
Wednesday providing us with clear skies and light winds through at
least Friday morning. The next upper level low that may impact SE
Texas will be dropping down from the northwest late Friday and
into Saturday. The timing and strength of this system is still
inconsistent run to run and from model to model, and confidence in
any of the finer details most likely won`t be known until after
Tuesday`s system moves through. However, we can say at this point
that precipitation most likely returns sometime Friday into
Saturday. High pressure builds in the wake of the system returning
us to drier conditions on Sunday.

Temperatures through the long term will stay on the chilly side,
though there will be some slight bumps because of the multiple
systems moving through the area. The increasing southerly flow on
Tuesday will bring temperatures up slightly compared to Monday with
highs in the upper 50s across the northern counties and low to mid
60s generally south and west of I-45. The cold front passage Tuesday
night though brings high temperatures back down into the low 50s
across the area, with some spots in Houston County not getting out
of the 40s. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will most likely
be the coldest night of the long term as high pressure fully settles
in over the area bring clear skies overnight. Lows Wednesday night
will fall below freezing generally north of the City of Houston, and
down into the mid 30s across pretty much the rest of the area. Highs
on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, but then temperatures are
expected to warm Friday into Saturday as the next system approaches
the area. Since there is inconsistency with the timing and strength
of this system, the temperature forecast for Friday and beyond is
equally inconsistent.

JPF


.MARINE...

Marine fcst remains virtually unchanged. Front will pass thru the
waters late this afternoon and evening with strong nw winds
approaching or exceeding gale force at times into the overnight
hours. Gale Warning remains in place...as does the Low Water
Advisory into Monday as water is transported out of the bays.

Winds/seas gradually diminish thru the day Monday and return to an
onshore direction Monday night. Look for another front Tuesday
evening with sct shra in advance and SCA`s in its wake. Onshore flow
resumes and increases Thurs followed by the 3rd front of the week on
Sat. May see some sea fog ~24 hours in advance of that one. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  35  52  39  60  36 /   0   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)          38  52  43  58  41 /   0   0   0  20  10
Galveston (GLS)        43  51  49  63  45 /  20   0   0  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for the following zones:
     Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
     Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
     Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
     Galveston...Matagorda Islands.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Fort
     Bend...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Harris...Inland
     Jackson...Inland
     Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Low Water Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Monday
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Monday for the following zones:
     Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
     NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...35

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
316 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>237-140530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0011.201214T0000Z-201214T0600Z/
Madison-Walker-Burleson-Brazos-Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-
Colorado-Austin-Waller-Inland Harris-Wharton-Fort Bend-
Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-
Including the cities of Madisonville, Huntsville, Caldwell,
Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe,
The Woodlands, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville,
Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, El Campo,
Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg,
First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland,
Alvin, and Angleton
316 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

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