Saturday, December 5, 2020

Dec. 5 20

 Summary: Low grey stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. There was a 20 percent chance for rain during the day and 60 percent chance for rain during the night. I noticed some light rain and sprinkles on my trip to and from Missouri City and and Rosenburg during the morning and early afternoon. I did not see any more rain after that. The wind speeds looked to be calm. It felt very cold, during the early and mid-morning. It felt very cool, during the late morning, afternoon, and evening. It felt cold during the early night.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 052344
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Fairly challenging short term forecast, but fortunately most of
the nuances are not very high impact. Uncertain how far north from
the coast showers will stretch, so have at least VCSH everywhere,
with prevailing as far as IAH. There is a chance at briefly seeing
some MVFR CIGs late tonight into tomorrow morning, particularly
closer to the coast. Hint at this with some cloud mentions at MVFR
height, but stay VFR for now as low levels have had a hard time
saturating.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 335 PM CST Sat Dec 5 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

Some spotty showers still linger across the area today and through
the night with more concentration along the coast. Troughing along
the coast still expected to develop tonight as low pressure moves
into NETX tomorrow morning. Very little measurable accumulation is
expected with the showers. High pressure will build into the area
throughout the day tomorrow and rain chances diminish through the
morning. Skies will clear through the day as the upper levels dry
out with a northerly wind flow setting in. Tonight, lows will
drop in the upper 30s in the northwestern counties as skies clear
early in the morning. Along I-45 and south of I-10 will get into
the low 40s and around 50 at the coast. Tomorrow, mostly clear
skies and drier air will allow the area to warm into the low to
mid 60s and then drop to around 40 at night. Light westerly winds
tonight will veer from the northwest tomorrow through the end of
the weekend. 35


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

Clear, dry, and cool conditions will persist through the middle
of next week as the dominant upper trough over the central CONUS
pushes eastward and surface high pressure takes hold across SE
Texas. Through Wednesday, a gradual warming trend is expected as
offshore flow erodes, with southerly winds eventually developing
by Thursday as the aforementioned surface high slides to the east.
As a result, highs should warm from the lower 60s on Monday to
just over 70 by Wednesday. With the synoptic pressure gradient
tightening as a deepening lee cyclone forms over the eastern
Rockies, moisture will be on the increase by Thursday with dew
points recovering to the 50s/low 60s in the evening hours.

Global models have come into a bit better agreement regarding the
approach of our next upper low/surface cold front at the end of
next week. ECMWF/GFS both place a closed 300mb low over Baja
California by early Thursday, with both solutions now bringing it
quickly towards SE TX as a longwave trough by late Friday/early
Saturday. As an associated surface cyclone pushes through the
Central Plains, both models show a cold front extending from this
feature making its way into SE TX on late Friday/early Saturday.
Given the more ample moisture expected to be in place (total PWs
around 1.5 in), showers and thunderstorms should accompany the
fropa. Models begin to diverge around Day 7-8, with GFS indicating
a reinforcing front which brings a second round of precipitation
to the area while the EC favors a drier weekend.

Cady


.MARINE...

Troughing along the coastline will cause a brief period in increased
winds close to caution level in the southern waters.  Along with the
peak in seas to 4ft, the winds will calm Monday evening to a
northerly flow around 10KTs or less. Seas will subside through
Monday to around 2-3ft and by mid week to 2ft or less through the
end of next week as onshore flow pattern sets in by the end of the
week. At the end of next week, higher winds and build seas are
looking to be around advisory levels. 35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  39  61  37  63  39 /  20  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          43  62  42  63  41 /  50  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        49  62  50  62  51 /  70  30   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...35

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