Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Dec. 8 20

 Summary: The sky looked to be mostly clear with some white alto, or maybe cirro stratus clouds scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night.  The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some occasional light wind gusts. It felt cold, during the early and mid-morning. It felt cool, during the late morning, evening, and early night. It felt warm, during the afternoon. It felt very cool, during the late night. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not see, or hear about any rain drops falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any drops falling anywhere where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 082329
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will continue throughout the duration of the TAF
period. Winds will diminish over the next few hours, remaining
light and variable overnight. Clear skies and southwest winds of 5
to 10 knots are expected tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Surface high pressure continues to dominate the weather, bringing
mostly clear skies and light winds. As the high moves east-
southeast into the Gulf today into Wednesday, a warmer airmass
filters in within the west to southwest flow at the surface. This
will result in overnight temperatures from the upper 40s to mid
50s and daytime temperatures climbing into the 70s for Wednesday
and Thursday. Breezy south winds will be on the increase on
Thursday ahead of the next cold front moving through the area late
Thursday night. 05

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Onshore winds Thursday will help increase temperatures, humidity,
and PWs. High temps should approach the mid 70S on Thursday and
PWs should reach 1.4" to 1.6" ahead of the prefrontal trough.

The next cold front should approach SE Texas Friday night and early
Saturday morning. However, there is uncertainty in global models
regarding when the front pushes through and how long the precip
will last. GFS shows the front and precip moving through by
Saturday afternoon whereas the ECMWF and Canadian model show a jet
stream and trough strengthening across the eastern half of the US
and then pushing towards the NE. This causes showers and precip
to linger in our coastal waters and our southernmost counties
until late Sunday/Early Monday. The forecast was weighted more in
favor of the ECMWF and Canadian model since the model trend of
lingering precip has been consistent the last several days for
these models.

Late into the forecast period, another trough/front is expected to
push through sometime on Tuesday with the GFS being more aggressive
and forming a front earlier and stronger than other models.

KBL

MARINE...
As surface high pressure builds over the western Gulf of
Mexico...winds will be light and mainly from the SW or W through
Wednesday. As the high shifts E and a cold front approaches from
the west...winds increase and become onshore...mainly from the S
Thursday and Friday...with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
likely developing by Thursday night. Some uncertainty in
timing...but cold front likely to push through on Saturday...a
little later than pervious forecast. In fact...could be slower yet
of ECMWF solution is correct...with more of a Sunday night FROPA
depicted...and have trended toward this slower scenario as GFS
seems to be faster than most of the determistic runs. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are possible behind the front on Sunday into
Monday. Again uncertainty here...but favoring the
stronger...slower solutions advertised in the ECMWF and Canadian
models. GFS is quicker and somewhat weaker with winds not as
strong post front.

Another front looks on tap for late day 7, possibly next Tuesday.
Still plenty of uncertainty in that feature.

DR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  40  76  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              73  43  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            67  55  70  61  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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