Summary: Small to large white with maybe some grey stratus clouds looked to be widely scattered across the sky for most of the day. There looked to be only a few stratus clouds in the sky during the early morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate gusts. It felt very cold, during the morning. It felt cold, during the early afternoon. It felt very cool, during the mid and late afternoon and evening. It felt cold during the night. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during any time of the day. I did not feel, or see any rain drops, where I was in the Houston, TX area, during any time of the day.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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918 FXUS64 KHGX 162354 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 554 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will be in place over the TAF period for all area airports as clouds continue to erode from west to east. Clear skies are expected for all airports on Thursday. As high pressure settles in right on top of southeast TX, winds will become light and variable overnight. On Thursday afternoon as the high continues to drift eastward, winds will remain on the light side (5-7 knots) but will begin to have a more easterly component. Looking further ahead, the wind direction will transition to a southeasterly component on late Thursday/early Friday as we get into return flow. 26 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 331 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020/... .DISCUSSION... Tonight`s chill will be full on winter for Southeast Texas, with widespread low temperatures of 28-32 degrees for the rural bulk of the area. The immediate coast and urban areas will likely come close to the freezing mark, but will be much less likely to reach it. As onshore flow returns, we`ll see a gradual warming trend into the weekend, only briefly halted by a weak cold front. Slow warming is then expected to commence again early next week. Beyond these brief bouts of wintry temperatures, the weather looks pretty quiet. Expect a chance for rain Friday night into Saturday in association with the weak weekend front, and rain chances are likely to increase again towards the middle of next week in association with another, more significant front. .SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]... Satellite - and the good ol` window ob - shows that the pesky 1800-3000 foot cloud deck that obscured the sky for most of the day so far in the eastern half of our area is finally beginning to scatter out. But, as far as temperatures go, the damage is likely done. At 3 pm, sunnier spots have risen into the middle 50s, while the cloudier locations have yet to even crack 50 degrees yet today. The more full sun will provide for a brief chance at picking up a few more degrees, but that`s probably about it. That said, for tonight, look for the sky to clear quickly as high pressure settles in to reign over Southeast Texas. We`ll also see winds go calm with a severe lack of pressure gradient. This sets us up atmospherically for some solid radiational cooling tonight. There is a surprising spread in the guidance - some easily falling into the 20s across the area, others barely bringing freezing temps into our area of responsibility at all. Given the straightforward atmospheric factors, I suspect other model parameters tied to land use and/or soil moisture may be the cause here. And, I do agree that lingering ground moisture may keep temperatures from really crashing, but my forecast still goes for a widespread light freeze outside of the heavily moderated coastal zones and urban locations. That moisture, clear sky, and light wind may well give us some frost opportunity, so I go ahead and threw some of that in the weather grids overnight. Again, in the warmer spots it`ll probably mainly show up on vulnerable spots like roofs, cars, and other elevated surfaces - while in chillier spots, more ground frost can be expected. High pressure will continue to drift east, and reconnect us with onshore flow. So, while we`ll still remain under a pretty subsident regime keeping weather fair, we should see some warmer temperatures and in increase in dewpoints for the rest of the short term. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]... Not a lot of changes with the long term as models remain mostly on track from previous runs. Isolated/scattered activity is slated to return Fri/Fri night as low-level moisture deepens (PWs around 1") with the strengthening onshore flow. Isolated WAA-type showers will be possible early Fri morning...but the better rain chances should begin late Fri afternoon into Fri night/early Sat as the next cold front makes its way into the CWA from the NW. The bulk of the POPs should be just ahead of and with this boundary itself. While there could be some enhanced development with these storms (as per progs of a strengthening mid level inflow the favorable jet pattern aloft (RRQ)), the progs of limited moisture/instability over SE TX could be bigger factors with limiting thunderstorm development with this system. Clearing skies along with cooler/drier air should work its way down across the FA on Sat. Surface high pressure settling over area will keep things quiet through the rest of the weekend. As the high moves out to the E, onshore winds are set to return to the region by Tue or so. Extended global guidance now hinting that increased POPs may in order for Weds as the next cold front tracks across the state toward the Gulf. Of note, ECMWF looks to be a bit faster than the GFS/Canadian runs with this front. But, the trends overall seem to indicate that this could be a decently strong cold front next week. .MARINE... Winds and seas are gradually diminishing this afternoon as high pressure settles over the region, and the small craft advisory will expire at 21Z. SCEC is in place until evening on the Gulf, but high pressure is rapidly prevailing - winds are barely above the SCEC threshold at 3 pm, with waves shortly behind them on their way down to 5 feet at Freeport Buoy. The high will move east on Thursday with onshore winds returning. The onshore flow will strengthen Friday and Friday night as low pressure develops in the panhandle. Warmer air flowing over cooler shelf waters could produce some patchy fog Friday into Saturday. Confidence is not particularly high, as winds look to be more southerly, which is a bit more effective at bringing in deeper, warmer water than ESE or east winds. Still, the potential for 60+ dewpoint air means we should probably at least be on the lookout for some fog development on the waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 30 60 36 65 51 / 0 0 0 0 40 Houston (IAH) 33 58 38 66 56 / 0 0 0 0 40 Galveston (GLS) 44 57 53 67 62 / 0 0 0 0 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs SHORT TERM...Luchs LONG TERM...41 AVIATION...26 MARINE...Luchs
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