Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Dec. 22 20

 Summary: The sky looked to be clear with maybe a few alto stratus clouds, during the morning. White with some possibly grey alto stratus clouds looked to have become widely scattered across the sky, sometime during the afternoon, before becoming clear again with only a few possible alto, or cirro stratus clouds, during the evening. I think the sky looked to be clear with only a few possible alto, or cirro stratus clouds, during the night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with some occasional moderate gusts. It felt very cold, during the early morning. It felt cold, during the mid-morning and night. It felt very cool, becoming cool, during the late morning. It started to feel a little cool, almost warm, during the early afternoon. It felt a little cool, almost warm, during the mid and late afternoon. It felt cool, during the early evening. It felt very cool, during the late evening. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, that I am aware of. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops where I was in the Houston, TX area, during any time of the day.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 230033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Still VFR conditions across SE TX this evening with the influx of
some mid/high clouds from the west. Not a lot of changes with the
TAFS from the previous package as low-level moisture continues to
increase over the region overnight. Widely scattered showers will
be developing to over the coastal waters/coastal counties through
the early morning hours...spreading inland through the afternoon.
This should lower CIGS through the day on Weds, with skies likely
not improving until the evening (from north to south) in the wake
of the cold front. This front will also bring strong gusty north-
erly winds during the afternoon...decreasing by the evening. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Afternoon]...

Partly cloudy skies west and mostly clear east this afternoon as
clouds become more ubiquitous tonight with the WAA pattern firmly
in place. A warmer night on tap as southerly flow persists and
mixes in higher dewpoints. After 3 am will likely begin to see
some spotty showers or light rain developing over the western Gulf
Waters and spreading north into SETX. Around sunrise spotty
showers should be streaming into the southwestern counties and
then expanding northeast. The cold front over CO/NM this afternoon
will drive east and southeast and should race through SETX
Wednesday afternoon and reach the coast around 5-7 PM. Have
favored some of faster guidance for the frontal timing given the
strength of the CAA. As the front nears the region will be looking
for some prefrontal troughing to develop off of the Hill Country
and slide into the area which should be the main mechanism for
lift and the production of showers and thunderstorms. The
thunderstorms may be mainly confined to the eastern half of the
region where CAPE of 750-1100 j/kg.  The southeastern 1/3rd of
the region looks to have the greater chance for thunderstorms and
SPC has expanded the marginal risk to include Bay City-Katy-
Huntsville-Groveton eastward. The cold front timing also plays
into the temperature forecast and if it turns out to be slower
then temperatures may not start to fall in the afternoon in the
northwest.
45

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR through 06z. ST/SC deck expands northeastward from near the
PSX/BYY area tonight and should bring an abrupt change from SKC to
OVC in the 07-11z time frame. Spotty -RA/SHRA developing over the
Gulf in the morning should redevelop and continue moving
northeast through most of the TAF sites 12-18z time frame with
MVFR ceilings of 2500-3000 ft lowering to 1200-1900ft through the
late morning hours. CF passage will usher in northerly winds of
15-25kts with higher gusts during the afternoon Wednesday through
the evening hours.
45

LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...
In the wake of Wednesday`s cold front, which should push well
offshore before midnight on Thursday, a moderate to strong
offshore flow pattern will develop as surface high pressure takes
hold along the western Gulf Coast. This will be of particular
concern to mariners, as conditions are expected to be within gale
thresholds well into Thursday morning. Over land, we continue to
anticipate a period of cooler and drier weather to provide for a
relatively pleasant Christmas Eve and Christmas Day across SE
Texas. However, RH values in the 20-25% range as a result of dry
air advection that this pattern will provide may result in some
elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures on Thursday should remain in the mid 50s, while a
backing of surface winds on Friday will begin a slight warming trend
that will have highs topping out at around 60. Overnight lows will
be a bit on the chilly side, mostly in the 30s to low 40s, so a
jacket will likely be necessary if you`re heading out to check out
the Christmas lights in your neighborhood (or, alternatively, if you
plan to deliver presents via reindeer-powered sleigh).

By Saturday, the dominant surface high will push eastward and as a
result onshore flow will once again develop. Warm air/moisture
advection will continue the warming trend, with highs pushing into
the upper 60s on Saturday and low to mid 70s on Sunday. Total PWs
recover near the vicinity of 1.0 in by Sunday afternoon prior to the
arrival of our next surface cold front which will move through the
area as a surface low pushes into the Central Plains. The boundary
should reach the northern zones late on Sunday or early on Monday,
pushing offshore later on Monday. While showers are likely to
accompany the fropa, fairly limited moisture and unfavorable upper
jet dynamics will likely inhibit any heavy rainfall. Another,
stronger frontal passage looks to take place by mid-week though the
timing of the boundary and its impacts remain uncertain at this time.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      58  75  35  55  32 /  20  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              57  75  40  54  36 /  20  50  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            61  68  45  54  45 /  20  70  50   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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