Saturday, December 26, 2020

Dec. 26 20

 Summary: White, small to big alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with some occasional light to moderate gusts. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops, where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. It felt cold, during the early morning. It felt very cool, during the mid-morning. It felt a little cool, almost warm, during the late morning, afternoon, and early evening. It felt cool, I think, during the late evening and early night.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Skies clearing quickly and VFR conditions expected through 15z
Sunday. Expecting a stratocu deck to develop mid morning as low
level flow strengthens. Gusty S-SSW flow sets up and with heating
expect SC deck to deepen and eventually lower during the
afternoon. Could see some spotty very light rain/sprinkles/-RW
moving quickly through the area but looks like trace amounts at
best. MVFR ceilings should be possible by 18-21z across the
CXO/IAH area southward.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 346 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2020/...





.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Sunday Night]...

Surface high pressure now moving eastward across the Central Gulf
Coasts has allowed the return of southerly wind flow across SE Texas
today and is expected to continue through the rest of the weekend.
As a result, an increase in low level moisture along with a warming
trend is anticipated beginning from the southwest quadrant of the
CWA expanding northeastward through Sunday. For the rest of the
afternoon, however, skies will remain mostly sunny as moisture
transport slowly ramps up. As it continues to rise tonight, cloud
development will increase starting from the southwest quadrant and
expanding northeastward into the rest of the CWA overnight into
Sunday. With respect to temperatures, lows tonight will be on the
milder side, ranging from the upper 40s to the low 50s inland and
in the upper 50s along the coastal locations. Highs on Sunday will
reach the low 70s for most of SE Texas with the warmest
temperatures likely to reside along the western half of the CWA,
where highs could reach the mid 70s. Winds will strengthen a bit
on Sunday as well as the local pressure gradient tightens. Lows
Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than tonight.
24


.LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...

On Monday,upper level riding will impinging on the western Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, a weak cold front will be crossing the area
but the front will probably stall out before reaching the coast.
Fcst soundings show a very strong capping inversion in the 850-700
mb layer moisture trapped beneath this layer will lead to cloudy
skies 850 mb temperatures support high temperatures in the lower
70`s.Whatever is left of the front will return north on Tuesday as
pressures fall in eastern New Mexico. Capping remains strong on
Tuesday and with moisture trapped beneath the cap, would expect
cloudy skies to persist.

On Wednesday, A cold front will cross the region, Still some timing
differences between the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF but there is
a building consensus that the front will reach the coast between 22-
04z. Several parameters are coming into play that could make
Wednesday rather active. PW values will exceed 1.50 inches which is
pretty good for the end of December. The 500 mb long wave trough is
deep and the base of trough extends into Deep South Texas. 850-700
mb frontogenesis looks fairly robust with this system and jet dynamics
also looking extremely favorable with a nice splitting jet structure
noted at 300 mb on Wed aftn. SE TX will lie in a 120 kn RRQ Wed
night so would expect precipitation to continue, that and some
isentropic upglide as winds aloft remain SW until the upper trough
axis passes. Ingredients are in place for some locally heavy rain
late Weds into Wed night.

Rain should end late Wed night or early Thursday as the 500 mb
trough axis pushes east and subsidence kicks in. It will remain cold
on Thursday as high pressure builds into the southern plains. CAA
and winds helping to mix should keep MaxT values near 50 degrees.
Subtle warm up is expected on Friday nut clouds return friday night
into Saturday as a short wave dives SE into TX. Not much moisture
with this feature but what is available saturates the column up to
around 500 mb. Will carry chance PoPs for a cold rain next Saturday.
43


.MARINE...

Onshore flow will increase Sunday, but winds should remain just
below 15 KTS and therefore seas will remain at or below 3 FT.
Early next week however, winds and seas will build further and
reach Caution/Advisory criteria and chance of rain will increase.
The next cold front, forecast to move into the coastal waters
Wednesday, will bring additional and more robust showers and
thunderstorms ahead and along the front as well as moderate to
strong offshore winds and elevated seas in the wake of the front.
In addition, strong offshore winds could bring back low water
levels along the bays through Thursday. Light to moderate onshore
flow expected Friday.
24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  49  74  51  71  57 /   0   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)          51  73  55  71  58 /   0  10  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)        59  69  61  68  61 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...45

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