Summary: The sky looked to be clear with maybe a few white alto stratus clouds, during the early and mid-morning. White and grey stratus clouds started to become widely scattered across the sky, sometime during the early afternoon, or maybe late morning and lasted through the evening and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with light gusts and maybe some occasional moderate gusts. I believe that there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. It felt very cool, during the early and mid-morning. It felt cool, during the late morning, late evening, and night. It felt a little cool, almost warm, during the early afternoon and early evening. It felt warm, during the mid and late afternoon.
Thoughts: It looks like Houston, TX may get some snow, or sleet mix on Thursday morning. But we will see!!! : )
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 280339 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 939 PM CST Sun Dec 27 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... BKN-OVC 3500-5000FT deck over the coastal counties with skies clearing across much of the remainder of the area. By 04-08z expect MVFR ceilings to start to fill in across the area with weak isentropic upglide. Some patchy light fog remains possible with the terminals CXO northward more likely to see the thicker MVFR/IFR fog toward morning. Winds backing to the southeast tonight and even more easterly near UTS as the cold front near Dallas sags south and stalls...north of the area. Slow steady improvement 13-16z in ceilings to VFR. Southerly flow strengthens Tuesday and will likely be dealing with a mix of MVFR/VFR during the day beneath the cap. 45 && .SHORT .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday Night]... Mostly clear skies inland have set the stage for temperatures to fall into the upper 50s north to lower 60s coast. Onshore flow will continue tonight though lighter than last night so anticipate some patchy fog after midnight and then possibly toward morning areas of fog to become a bit more widespread and an increase in low clouds as well. Temperatures should bottom out in the lower 50s well north to upper 50s to around 60 on the coast. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 353 PM CST Sun Dec 27 2020/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday Night]... Stronger southerly wind flow today continued to subtly elevate low level moisture transport across SE Texas bringing in the increased cloud development we were expecting as daytime heating kicked in over land. The GOES-16 TPWs as of this 2 PM CST this afternoon were generally between 0.7-0.8 inches areawide, which is on par of what the models were indicating for today. The incoming warmer air mass has also allowed for warmer temperatures this afternoon, with most of the region reaching the lower 70s by 2 PM CST today. A weak cold front is still expected to move southward from Central Texas and approach SE Texas later tonight, however, the front is forecast to stall just north of the CWA. As a result of the front not making it into our local area, the southerly wind flow will decrease but persist tonight, keeping PWs in the 0.8 to 1.0 inch range. With inland dew points staying generally in the mid to upper 50s and low temperatures expected to also be in that same range, the dew point spread will only be about 1-2 degrees in many locations across the CWA. Taking into account winds of 5 KTS or less, it will be a good set up for fog development during the overnight into early morning hours. Fog is expected to lift during the morning hours Monday and cloud decks will gradually rise throughout the day. High temperatures will once again be in the low to mid 70s areawide. Some light showers are possible along the northern counties and could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. A similar nighttime weather pattern can be expected Monday night with a slight chance of fog possibly developing a little earlier across portions of the CWA. But once winds begin to pick up during the overnight hours, the potential for fog will cease. FIRE WEATHER...Although humidity levels will be increasing tonight strong winds have spurred small grass fires across Brazos County. Exercise caution if working with flammable materials. 24 .LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]... A deep long wave trough will be digging southward toward the Southern Rockies early Tuesday morning. Surface low pressure will develop in eastern CO and onshore winds will strengthen across TX. Weak warm air advection will allow for some weak showers beneath a strong capping inversion in the 850-700 mb layer. Warm 850 mb temps should allow for MaxT values to warm into the lower 70`s but extensive cloud cover should keep temps a few degrees cooler. WAA will remain robust Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the surface low strengthens and the upper level trough slowly migrates to the east. Could still generate some weak showers beneath the cap Tuesday night but rain chances will increase rapidly on Wednesday as a surface cold front moves into and across the state. An upper level low will evolve in the base of the trough and the upper troughs eastward migration really slows and by Wednesday night this feature is still west of the Big Bend area. The sfc low will be in the Great Lakes region by Wednesday night with a cold front trailing to the SW. The front will become parallel to the upper flow and the surface front is expected to slow. The position of the upper low will foster a split in the jet and divergence aloft looks pretty strong late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The combination of the favorable jet structure, a departing 120 knot speed max, strong surface convergence along a slow moving front and it appears that all the ingredients are in place for some strong storms with locally heavy rain. Fcst soundings show CAPE values near 1200, LI values between -3 and -6 and lapse rates between -6.0 and -6.5 C. Helicity values are between 70 and 240 across the area as well. Although not currently outlooked, feel there is some potential for a few strong to severe storms late Wed aftn or Wednesday night. Upper level divergence reaches it`s zenith Wednesday night as the upper low nears the area and PW values reach 1.60 inches so feel the potential for heavy rain will increase as the front nears the area. There should be a 3 to 5 hour window of moderate to heavy rain and some locally heavy rainfall totals will be possible. Current thinking is that widespread rainfall will average 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals between 3 and 5 inches possible. Rainfall will end by late Thursday morning as the upper level low moves east of the region. As the upper level low pivots across SE TX, sfc low pressure will develop near Galveston. There will be some significantly colder air drawn into the circulation, especially on the northwest side of the low. 1000-500 mb thickness values fall below 540 dm and 850 mb temps fall to around -2 C. Fcst soundings for KCLL show a saturated moisture profile with most of the profile below 0 C. This would support a transition from rain to snow over the NW zones before the precipitation ends late Thursday morning. Have kept things as all rain in the weather grids for now but if future model runs remain consistent, snow or a rain/snow mix will need to be added. Thursday looks cold with cloud cover, blustery winds and continued cold air advection. MaxT values will struggle to reach 50 degrees. High pressure will drift across North Texas next Fri-Sun while a weak area of low pressure will develop over South Texas. The low could bring some very light rain to coastal SE TX but agree with the midnight shift forecaster that moisture will be hard to come by and that it`ll probably remain dry. Temperatures will also remain on the cool side with high temperatures remaining in the upper 50`s through the weekend. 43 .MARINE... Light to moderate onshore winds will continue through Monday, remaining at or just shy of caution levels in the offshore waters. Some patchy fog could develop in across Galveston Bay region Monday morning as ambient temperatures warm up a little and water temperatures remain in the upper 50s along with light winds turning a little more southeasterly. Stronger winds and building seas are expected Tuesday and Wednesday and will likely require caution statements and eventually advisories on Tuesday and Wednesday prior to the approach of the next stronger surface cold front expected during the late afternoon/evening hours. Moderate to strong offshore winds and elevated seas will develop in the wake of the departing front, with low water levels in the bays once again a potential concern as a result Thursday morning. Onshore flow expected to return near the end of the upcoming weekend. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 71 58 72 61 / 10 20 20 20 30 Houston (IAH) 57 72 58 71 61 / 10 10 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 60 71 61 69 64 / 10 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE/DSS...41
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