Summary: The sky looked to be mostly clear with some small white cirro, or maybe atlo stratus clouds, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. (There may have even been more clouds than that but I honestly cannot remember at the moment! ) The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, during the day. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops falling anywhere where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. It felt very cool, during the early morning. It felt cool, during the mid-morning. It felt a little cool, during the late morning and early evening. It felt a little cool, almost warm, during the afternoon. It felt cool, during the late evening and early night. It felt very cool, during the late night.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 290243 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 843 PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon]... Skies are mostly clear across most of the area. Clouds should continue spread into the southwest areas through the night and then start spreading into the Galveston Bay area after 2 am-ish. Temperatures won`t fall too much more 3-6 degrees inland and near the coast nearly steady. Rain chances look to hold off until the 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Mainly VFR through the night then during the afternoon and evening expect rapid increase in cloud cover and lowering ceilings in the evening. Showers should start popping up in the afternoon over the western areas and then spotty showers over the region so have added VCSH for most inland sites by 20-22z. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 317 PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020/... .LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]... Upper level low pressure will get cut off from the main flow and become situated over northern Mexico on Wednesday morning, south of the AZ/NM border. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the Great Lakes with a cold front trailing from the low into north- central Texas. The front will become parallel to the mean flow and will trudge ever so reluctantly eastward through Thursday. By Thursday morning, the upper low will approach the Big Bend area and the surface front will also inch eastward. The upper low will induce surface low pressure to develop along the front near Matagorda Bay and this will again aid in slowing the eastward progress of the cold front. The surface low will move north across SE TX on Thursday and it will eventually allow a wind shift to the west by Thursday evening. So, what does it all mean? Rain will probably hold off on Wednesday morning as the front and better upper level divergence are still too far off to the west. By late Wednesday afternoon, the front will near the western edge of the CWA. Fcst soundings show CAPE values near 1800, LI values around -6 and lapse rates around 6.3 C. SPC has outlooked the western third of the CWA in a Marginal Risk and this seems very reasonable at this time. The primary severe weather hazard will be damaging winds and possibly some large hail. Further east, weak warm air advection will persist with scattered showers feeding into the developing line of storms over Central Texas. Instability looks much weaker over the eastern half of the CWA and don`t think the severe weather threat will make it into Houston. By Wednesday night, the front gets a bit closer and will line up along the I-45 corridor. The upper level low near the Big Bend doesn`t move much. The position of the upper low will create a split in the jet with strong upper level divergence persisting for about 12-24 hours. Couple that with a slow moving surface boundary and PW values near 1.50 inches and you set the stage for periods of heavy rain. Hard to say exactly where the axis of heaviest rain will develop as meso-scale forcing will likely dictate who gets the heaviest rain. WPC has shifted the Day 3 excessive rain outlook about 120 miles west of the previous ERO and now favors the western third of the CWA with heavy to excessive rain. It still looks like most of the area will receive 1-3 inches of rain with isolated totals in the 3-5 inch range but again, meso-scale influences could modify these rainfall estimates. Rainfall will continue Thursday morning as the upper low begins to accelerate to the N-NE. Thickness values will remain above critical thresholds and moisture profiles now look to remain warmer than 0 C so not expecting any snow to mix with the rain but it is something we will need to keep an eye on just the same. The surface low will continue to move N-NE and it looks like SE TX could get dry slotted in the afternoon with a west wind acting a bit like a dry line with a rapid decrease in PW values by 21z. PW values fall from 1.51 to 0.91 between 18-21z. Drier air will filter into the region Thursday night but moisture trapped beneath a developing cap should keep skies mostly cloudy and that`ll help keep temperatures a little warmer than previously forecast. Sunny skies are expected on Friday in the wake of the surface low and weak high pressure over West Texas. A weak coastal trough will develop along the lower TX coast late Fri night into Sat and fcst soundings show saturation above 700 mb with very dry air below this level. Will toss in some 20 PoPs for coastal areas on Saturday but think the low levels will probably be too dry for much precip to actually reach the surface. Surface high pressure will build into the area Saturday night into Monday with generally clear skies and seasonal temperatures. 43 .MARINE... Increase in both winds and seas across the local Gulf waters will likely require Caution flags tonight and likely transition to advisory levels on Tuesday as persistent onshore flow continues ahead of the approach of a strong cold front. The front is expected to move across the region sometime late Wednesday into Thursday morning, brining widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the front across all the bays and Gulf waters. Thunderstorms have the potential to be strong and will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, torrential rainfall and locally higher seas. In the wake of the departing front, moderate to strong offshore winds will develop and further increase wave heights. This may also result in low water conditions in and around the bays. By Friday, winds will relax and wave heights will lower shortly after. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 72 62 73 44 / 10 10 30 80 80 Houston (IAH) 57 72 61 76 54 / 10 10 20 60 90 Galveston (GLS) 61 71 63 71 58 / 10 10 10 40 90 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE/DSS...41
No comments:
Post a Comment