Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 250540 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 .AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]... No changes from previous as high pressure builds down from the Plains. Light west winds overnight should become more NW early tomorrow as a weak secondary push of cold/dry air filters into the region from the north. Light/variable winds will return by tomorrow night as another surface high settles over the state. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020/ SHORT TERM [Tonight and Friday]... Dry, cool conditions continue with a northwest flow aloft. Winds should decouple quickly around sunset and provide for good radiational cooling with clr skies and low dewpoints in place. Areas north of an Edna-Liberty line will probably see a light freeze. The Houston metro area within the Beltway will likely be spared, but cannot rule out a few spotty outlying areas. Warmer tomorrow with a more westerly component to the llvl winds. Have 60-65F (east-to- west) and sunny skies in the fcst, but future shifts may end up needing to bump them up a few degrees. 47 LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]... With high pressure to the east...light onshore flow will continue over the weekend...with airmass gradually becoming more humid. A weak cold front will approach on Sunday then stall out over northern portions of the forecast area on Monday. This boundary could provide convergence and lift to support a few rain showers along and just north of the boundary...so low chances of rain look good for Monday...especially central and northern portions of the forecast area...not so much toward the coast. The front lifts north of the area by Tuesday...with stronger onshore flow and much warmer more humid air mass advecting in. Will likely see a more impressive cold front...and associated stronger short wave trough at upper levels...pushing across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will provide our best chance of more widespread rain for this forecast period...with showers and thunderstorms likely along the front. Models are in pretty good agreement in timing of this feature...although since several days out this could change. Main synoptic models have cold front crossing the area from NW to SE...pushing off the coast Wed morning...with colder...drier conditions returning Wednesday night and Thursday as cold front pushes east. 18 MARINE... Winds/seas are beginning to settle down, but will need to continue the SCA`s for the remainder of the day/evening. Bays can likely be dropped for the evening update and Gulf waters possibly be replaced by caution flags. Also extended the low water advsy thru the evening with several locations still below the -1 MLLW criteria. May need another one for Galveston Bay around the next low tide cycle Fri morning. Surface high pressure over south Tx moves ewd into the Gulf on Fri. Light onshore flow should resume Fri night then strengthen early next week ahead of the next storm system. Might need SCA`s again in the Gulf by Mon night or Tue. The next front is forecast to push thru the waters Tue night or Wed morning. 47 FIRE WEATHER... Currently seeing dry, windy conditions meeting Red Flag criteria in some spots with relative humidities in the upper teens and lower 20s...and wind gusts 20 to 30 mph. Fuels not particularly dry however. Still elevated fire danger for sure for the rest of the afternoon. Winds will diminish tonight. Will be dry again tomorrow...low relative humidities...but very light winds with high pressure parked over the area. Over the weekend will start to see warmer...more humid conditions as winds become onshore. 18 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 33 62 38 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 34 62 41 67 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 42 59 52 65 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Low Water Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$
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