Thursday, October 1, 2020

Oct. 1 20

The sky looked to be clear with a light haze, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning. The sky looked to be clear with a light haze, where I work in the heights area, during the mid and late morning, afternoon, and early evening. The sky looked to be clear where I work in the heights area and where I live in northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening. The sky looked to be clear wth a light haze, where I live in northwest Houston, TX, during the night. There looked to be a light fog, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning, during sunrise. The wind speeds were calm. The early morning was cool. The night was a little cool. The mid and late morning, afternoon, and evening were warm.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 012328
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable
winds overnight with higher winds along the coast. Tomorrow will
have northeasterly at the TAF sites. 35

&&

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Today continued the stretch of blue sky days across SE Texas, and
these days will not be ending anytime soon. Temperatures across
the region climbed into the mid to upper 80s across the area, so a
little warmer than yesterday. However, a weak cold front will
move through the area this evening that will reinforce cooler air
tomorrow. You really won`t recognize that this cold front pushes
through besides a northeasterly wind shift. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the upper 50s for most of the area with the
City of Houston staying a few degrees warmer. Daytime highs
tomorrow will be in the upper 70s north of Lake Livingston and in
the low 80s across the rest of the area. Friday evening is looking
to be a spectacular fall evening with light winds, clear skies,
and comfortable temperatures in the 70s.

No precipitation is expected within the period.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday Night]...


Pleasant weather continues through most of the long term period with
relatively dry conditions and temperatures mainly in the 80s.

Saturday is shaping up to be another pleasant day for this time of
year with highs from the upper 70s to low 80s. The parade of weak
cold fronts continues with a backdoor front approaching the region
Sunday afternoon into Monday. As with previous fronts over the past
couple of days, this fropa will not bring much impacts, but a wind
shift to the north-northeast and of course, a reinforced dry/cool
airmass. The front should be over the Gulf waters by late Sunday
night/early Monday morning. Behind the front, gusty winds up to 20
knots will be possible, especially along the coast and over the
waters.

At the moment, dry conditions look to persist through, at least
Wednesday. Deterministic models are suggesting active weather as a
couple of tropical systems develop/move near or over the Gulf of
Mexico throughout the week. At this time, minimal, if any impacts
are expected across southeast Texas. The main concern is over the
Gulf waters with the potential for increasing swells/wave heights
(see Marine section for more details). The GFS brings a surge in
moisture returning back into the region as early as Wednesday while
the Canadian and ECMWF (and its ensembles) keep our region
relatively dry during this time-frame. Given the discrepancies
between models, and a strong mid-upper level ridge prevailing to our
west; have opted-out the GFS and kept our region dry through the end
of the extended period. With the ridge holding strong and moving
further east into central/eastern TX, a warming trend is expected by
mid-week. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to near 90.

05


.MARINE...

Gusty northeast winds are expected tonight as a cold front moves
through the region. Winds from 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25
knots are expected through Friday morning. Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution flags are in effect from 1 AM Friday until 7 AM
Friday. Surface high pressure moves in, leading to light to moderate
onshore winds into Sunday. Another weak front will sag southward
Sunday into Monday, possibly bringing gusts up to 20 knots at times
behind the front.

Conditions could be less favorable for mariners next week.
Increasing swells/wave heights are possible across the offshore
waters as an area (or areas) of low pressure near the Yucatan/Bay
Campeche moves into the Gulf waters Monday into the middle of the
week. Caution and/or Advisory headlines may be possible through this
period.

05


.TROPICAL...

After a quick slumber, the tropical Atlantic is beginning to
awaken yet again. The National Hurricane Center is currently
monitoring two tropical waves for potential tropical development
within the next five days. The first wave is currently off the
Yucatan and has a 40 percent chance of development within the next
two days, and 70 percent chance within the next five. The second
wave is located out in the far eastern Caribbean and has 20
percent chance of development within the next five days (when it
nears the Yucatan). While it is too early to determine if these
system will impact SE Texas for sure, but neither look to pose an
imminent threat. Seas and the rip current risk may increase next
weekend with these system out in the Gulf.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  57  80  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          61  83  57  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        70  80  70  79  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...35

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