Monday, October 12, 2020

Oct. 12 20

 

The sky mostly clear out during the early afternoon and night in the heights area, West and northwest Houston, TX.
This is how the sky looked during the morning, mid and late afternoon, and evening, in the heights, west and northwest Houston, TX.

Summary:
The day was mostly cloudy, warm with light to moderate gusts. No rain for the Houston, TX area, anytime during the day that I know of.  I did not feel or see any rain drops.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 122331
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAF cycle.


&&

.AVIATION...

Weak cold front continues to inch through southeast Texas. Surface
observations show dewpoints 10 to 15 degrees lower behind the
front. Expect front to continue to move very slowly as it
approaches the coast. No precipitation is expected with the front,
and aviation impacts will be limited to a wind shift and VFR cigs,
potentially lowering to MVFR briefly before scattering out by
mid-morning Tuesday. Light winds behind the front will eventually
turn NE by the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX/

DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresonding to the 21z update.

AVIATION...

Expect MVFR/VFR ceilings and weak/moderate W/NW wind late this
afternoon/evening, to predominate VFR and weak N/NW wind early
tonight. Then expect generally weak N/NE wind through the
remainder of the TAF period. Anticipate that MVFR ceilings will
occur during the 10-13z Tuesday period, mainly over the central
and southern sections. Afterward, a transition to predominate
VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

Today`s weak surface front has brought a northerly wind shift
to SE TX which should allow for some drier air to filter into the
area. In general, most locations will likely see a 24-hour dew
point drops of 10-15 degrees by sunrise tomorrow. While this will
be accompanied by an otherwise modest temperature drop (though
overnight lows in the northern counties could dip into the upper
50s), the potential for daily record daily high minimum
temperatures brought on by this morning`s observations will will
likely fade. Tuesday is shaping up to be a rather pleasant day
compared to the record heat of the previous several days, with
near-seasonable highs in the mid-80s at most locations, clear
skies, and light winds.

As surface high pressure behind the departing front shifts
eastward, onshore winds should redevelop by Wednesday, allowing
for an uptick in near-surface moisture that should push total PW
values back above the 1.0 in mark across portions of the area. As
such, should see a rise in surface dew points back into the low to
mid 60s, though conditions should stay fairly pleasant with highs
remaining in the mid 80s and no significant weather expected.

Cady

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The main weather story for the upcoming week continues to be the
approach of a second, stronger surface cold front on Thursday,
which will approach SE Texas as a deepening lee cyclone along the
southern Rockies advances southeastward. Latest suite of global
model runs continues to depict a faster FROPA than in previous
cycles, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the boundary reaching
the Brazos Valley late Friday afternoon, pushing through the metro
area overnight and reaching the Gulf waters by Friday morning.
More favorable near-surface moisture and convergence along the
boundary should be sufficient to trigger scattered showers
Thursday evening, though given the continued spread in model
forecast precipitation have opted to maintain chance PoPs in the
forecast.

As moderate to strong northerlies develop in the wake of
the departing front, a significant drop-off in surface temps and
dew points is expected over the weekend. Highs on Friday should
stay in the lower 70s across the entirety of the area, with dew
points in the upper 30s to upper 40s producing the first autumn-
like day in quite a while. While the redevelopment of onshore
flow by Sunday will result in a slight warming trend by the end of
the weekend and into the beginning of next week, things should
nonetheless remain fairly comfortable with highs unlikely to
eclipse the lower 80s through Monday.

Cady

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Expect a transition from a mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings and
surface wind transitions from weak/moderate SW south/NW north this
afternoon, to predominate VFR and moderate N/NW wind this
evening/early tonight. Expect generally weak N/NE wind overnight
through the remainder of the TAF period. Anticipate that MVFR
ceilings will occur at some locations 09-13z Tuesday, mainly over
the central and southern sections. Afterward, predominate VFR
expected.

99

MARINE...

Slightly stronger north winds in the wake of today`s cold front
should persist across the coastal waters this evening, though wind
speeds will remain below caution criteria. Onshore winds quickly
re-develop by Wednesday as surface high pressure shifts to the
east. A second and stronger cold front arrives late Thursday.
This front will bring another wind shift to the north with higher
wind speeds and also result in increasing seas to around 5 to 7
feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required in the wake
of this second front.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      57  86  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              65  87  64  87  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            73  83  72  82  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99

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