Thursday, October 29, 2020

Oct. 28 20

  Summary: Low white and grey stratus clouds covered the whole sky during the morning. Low white and grey stratus clouds started to break up a bit covering only most of the sky during the afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds were calm with maybe some occasional moderate gusts. Light to moderate and maybe moderately heavy showers fell where I live in Copperfield during the early morning and where I work in the heights area, during the mid and late morning and afternoon. It felt cold, during the early and mid-morning. It felt very cool, during the late morning and afternoon. It felt cold during the evening. It felt very cool, during the night. 

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 290444
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1144 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Clear skies tonight all sites. Fairly light winds inland but
remaining gusty at GLS...being downwind of West Bay...with less
friction and plenty of mixing with the cold air advecting over
the still warm water. On Thursday as strong upper low tracks West
to East across N TX...may see some clouds brush northern
sites...CLL and UTS...but likely still VFR there if they do
occur. Better cloud coverage should remain farther north. At all
sites do expect to see winds pick up considerably as surface
pressure gradient increases with surface high building in from the
NW. Looking at wind gusts in the late morning though afternoon
period to be mainly in the 20 to 30 knot range.

Reilly


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/...



.NEAR TERM [Tonight and Thursday]...
Clouds have pushed east of the forecast area with clear and cold
conditions across the area. Still seeing some strong winds over
the waters and downstream of the waters with places like GLS
gusting to 23 mph...higher gusts offshore. Will see a slight
slackening of the pressure gadient overnight then tightening and
an increase in winds tomorrow as the upper low moves east of the
area and trough on the back side pushes through from north to
south. Overall expect a mostly sunny...breezy and cool day
Thursday for the most part...except for some clouds over northern
zones associated with the upper level low.

Reilly


.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow]...

The surface front has passed through the CWA bringing the typical
northwesterly wind shift and cooler temperatures. Now we are
watching the 850mb front to push through and start to clear out the
skies. Currently that is located right about in the middle of the
CWA in a north to south orientation.  Through the evening and
overnight hours, cool dry air will push into the region clearing out
clouds, fog chances, and any weather to speak of. The only down fall
of this pattern now (if you want to find a downside) is going to be
the winds. While it has already been a bit breezy today with the
tighter gradient associated with the frontal boundary, tomorrow is
looking to be a bit windier. As the low currently in the TX
panhandle tracks along the TX/OK border tomorrow, a finger of the
upper level jet will be just along the northern portion of the CWA.
In the northern counties, close to wind advisory levels would not be
unexpected and decrease in speeds the closer to the coast; though
still looking like around 15mph sustained with higher gusts. Winds
will decrease late evening as the low track to the northeast
leaving a northerly breeze. 35


.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Tuesday]...

We continue to anticipate an extended period of cool, dry, and
generally benign weather following the departure of today`s
stationary frontal boundary. Both the GFS and ECMWF solutions this
afternoon depict the development of a persistent upper ridge across
the south-central CONUS by Friday, providing us with our first
prolonged period of Autumn-like weather across SE Texas. It should
be a fairly pleasant weekend for outdoor activities, with clear
skies, daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and nighttime lows
in the 40s to low 50s. With northerly winds continuing to allow
crisp drier air to filter into the area and dew points staying
generally in the 40s, a light jacket may be a wise choice for an
evening stroll around the neighborhood or backyard campfire.

As surface high pressure shifts off to the east on Sunday, the
resultant return flow will promote slightly warmer temperatures and
higher (yet still relatively comfortable) dew points as afternoon
highs jump into the mid to upper 70s. This onshore flow regime will
be short lived, however, as a weak surface cold front will traverse
SE Texas late Sunday into early Monday. Beyond a return to northerly
flow, this FROPA will be largely uneventful as a general lack of
available moisture (total PWs < 1.0 in) will be unfavorable for
the development of any precipitation.

Pleasant, fall-like conditions continue into next week with daytime
highs returning to the upper 60s to low 70s and skies staying
generally clear. Our next chance for measurable rainfall may come
towards the end of next week with the redevelopment of an onshore
flow pattern, though it remains too early at this point to discuss
this with any degree of confidence.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  39  60  44  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          43  63  47  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        51  66  53  65  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday evening for
     the following zones: Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
     NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reilly
NEAR TERM...Reilly
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...CADY
AVIATION...Reilly
MARINE...Reilly

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