Monday, October 5, 2020

Oct. 5 20

Low, light grey stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, at my house and where I work in the Heights, during the early morning. Low, light grey stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, where I work in the Heights, during the mid and late morning. High white alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, where I work in the Heights, during the afternoon and early evening. High white alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, where I work in the Heights and in northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening. The sky looked to be clear with maybe some high white alto stratus clouds scattered across the sky, where I live in northwest Houston, TX, during the night. The wind speeds were calm with maybe some occasional moderate gusts. It felt a little cool, during the early morning and night. It felt warm during the mid and late morning, afternoon, and evening. I did not see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I did not hear about or see any rain within the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 052314
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs...VFR with light winds overnight. VFR on Tuesday with
winds becoming NNE to NE and maybe reaching a 5 to 7 knot range. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

Another quiet short term period expected as high pressure sits
over Texas. Clear skies, dry conditions, and light winds prevail.
Daytime high temperatures on Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer
than today, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s.
Overnight low temperatures tonight and Tuesday night will be
similar. Areas north of Lake Livingston will dip down into the mid
50s, Brazos Valley and areas along I-10 will get down into the
upper 50s to near 60, and temperatures dip into the low to mid
60s in the City of Houston. Galveston Island will continue to have
lows near 70 degrees.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

The surface high pressure that is over Texas in the short term
will try and remain over Texas through the end of the week, but it
will be battling the tropics (which will be talked about more in
the tropical discussion below). Tropical Storm Delta will be
speeding is way through the central Gulf (most likely as a
hurricane) by midweek. Delta will be approaching the Gulf Coast
on Friday, but surface high pressure over Texas and an upper level
trough moving through should turn Delta to the north then
northeast. At this point, Delta is not anticipated to make
landfall in SE Texas, but some point to the east along the
northern Gulf Coast. But, please continue to closely monitor the
forecast through the week in case things change.

Skies and temperatures should rise over the weekend in the
subsidence left behind in Delta`s wake. Will have to look out the
next potential cold front in the first part of next week bringing
a change of precipitation and a return to cooler, drier weather
behind the front.

Fowler

MARINE...

Seeing a small swell showing along area beaches in association with
TD Gamma currently situated near the Yucatan. Should look fairly
similar tomorrow with 2-4ft seas nearshore and maybe a touch
larger than today further offshore (4-6ft). May need the SCEC
flags for the waters beyond 20NM.

TS Delta, currently in the Caribbean, is fcst to strengthen into a
hurricane and move into the southern Gulf Tue night and Wed
morning...then eventually inland across the northern Gulf states
sometime around Fri. Majority of guidance favors locations to our
east at this time, but definitely remains something to watch. That
said, great circle charts already show the upper Texas coast within
its swell window and anticipate we`ll see seas further climb
late Wed night into Thursday night and Fri morning.

Despite the system forecast to be east of us, water levels should be
running 1-1.5 feet above normal. And with a 8-12ft/12sec swell
filling in, large surf & rip currents with be a concern. Also
suspect we might have some wave runup issues across portions of the
upper Texas coast. May have minor issues a few hours before/after
the overnight high tide Wed night, but the Thursday evening and
overnight ones are the ones I`m most concerned about at this time.
Too early for specific impacts, as it`ll be dependent on the future
track/strength of Delta. But for now, mariners and those with
property along Gulf facing beaches (and possibly north facing shores
of Galveston/Bolivar) will want to keep up with the latest
forecasts. 47

TROPICAL...

First lets talk about Gamma. Gamma is battling strong shear and
land interaction with the northern Yucatan Peninsula and it is
losing. It has weakened into a tropical depression, and further
weakening is expected to occur through the next day or so before
dissipating.

While Gamma is dealing with its hostile environment, Tropical
Storm Delta is getting to deal with little to no shear, warm SSTs,
and little land interaction. Thus, Delta has been able to get
increasingly more organized and will continue to strengthen in the
next few days. It is expected to move northwestward through the
Caribbean Tuesday before passing between western Cuba and the
Yucatan and emerging into the south central Gulf on Wednesday.
Further strengthening is expected as it moves towards the
northwestern Gulf coast. It is expected to take a turn to the
north then northeast on Thursday before making landfall somewhere
along the northern Gulf coast on Friday. As of right now, we are
anticipated no to minimal impacts to our region with the main
risks being marine hazards of rising wave heights and increasing
rip current risk along the beaches. However, everyone along the
western and northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the
forecast in the coming days for any forecast changes.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      59  86  58  87  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              60  87  62  87  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            71  82  71  83  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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