Saturday, October 17, 2020

Oct. 17 20

 

I-10 east, in the heights area on my way to work, during the early morning.
11th and T.C. Jester on my way home from work, during the early afternoon.
Copperfield, on my way to celebrate my sisters birthday at her house, during the late evening.

Summary: The sky started out cloudy and then became mostly cloudy to cloudy at times. The wind speeds were calm with moderate gusts. It felt cold, during the early morning. It started to feel cool during the mid-morning. It started to feel warm during the late morning. It felt warm during the afternoon and evening. It felt a litle cool, almost cool during the night. No rain anywhere in or around the Houston, TX area that I know of. I think I may have felt a drop or two. I believe there was 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area.

Thoughts: Today was the first day of the fall/winter season that I had to wear a jacket to work. I really feel like Houston, TX is going to have a cold winter.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180047
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
747 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT]...
Showers have come to an end with southerly flow to continue
overnight and expecting a much warmer night with the persistent
southerly flow (5-10 degrees above normal though not getting into
record high minimum territory though). Temperatures will probably
end up holding steady after 3 am or creeping up. Mixed bag for
clouds tonight under a sliver of a waxing moon...as the strong LLJ
over NETX back into the Hill country slowly weakens overnight
expect the skies to vary from partly to mostly cloudy then to
mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight. May get a few morning
streamer showers/sprinkles in the southwest areas around or more
likely after sunrise. Another warm day on tap with the southerly
flow and rising 850mb temperatures. Max temps in the western
counties could easily reach the upper 80s and wouldn`t want to
rule out a 90 degree reading near Caldwell and College Station. A
weak front over NW KS this evening is going to get a stronger
surge of much cooler and drier air Sunday morning and plunge
southward...though it will be outrunning it`s upper support and
should crank on the brakes over N TX and probably come to halt
just north of the CWA by Monday around Sunrise. Streamer showers
looking more likely Sunday across the region.
45

&&

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Mix of VFR/MVFR to start the evening with then trending into more
widespread MVFR after midnight with the WAA pattern that is so
firmly in place. May be flirting with LLWS at CLL for a few hours
late this evening after the BL contracts. MVFR deck breaks up
quickly in the 15-16z window across the northern areas and sooner
13-15z for IAH/HOU areas. In the following issuance am
anticipating a need for VCSH for nocturnal showers Monday 06-12z.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 320 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2020/...





.LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]...

The long term will be dominated by a broad upper longwave trough
centered over eastern Canada and an upper-level high pressure system
over the southwest CONUS/Baja California. Return/onshore flow
persists across our region thanks to the surface high pressure to
our east. In other words, warm and humid southerly flow will
continue to dominate weather conditions with above normal
temperatures for this time of year.

The week also looks unsettled with different impulses traversing
through the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Given the nature of these
weak/progressive impulses, it is difficult to pinpoint specific
timing for favorable rain/storms chances. Therefore, have included a
broad chance of PoPs across the CWA, with better chances in the
afternoons.

The end of the period looks more interesting, yet challenging or
tricky. As discussed in the previous Long Term discussion, global
models are still struggling in a solution between a summer-like or
fall-like weather pattern. Latest runs still show little agreement.
The GFS continues to bring the high pressure over Baja California
east into southeastern TX/Mexico border. This could result in warmer
conditions for us. On the other hand, the 12Z ECMWF has a shortwave
trough over the Gulf; hence pushing a strong cold front at/near our
region late Friday into the weekend. For this forecast package, have
leaned towards the ECMWF solution and included temperatures close to
the 25 to 50th percentile of climatology Friday and Saturday. Well,
we are still 7 to 8 days far out, so these discrepancies always
happen and the forecast will likely change. 05


.MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern U.S. and low pressure over the
Texas panhandle will maintain a moderate onshore flow through the
weekend. Seas are up to 6 feet at buoy 19 so will will keep the
SCEC in effect for the offshore waters through 09z until seas
finally calm down. The low will weaken as it moves east and winds
will briefly subside on Monday as the gradient relaxes. that
respite will be short lived as pressures fall again over West
Texas and the gradient tightens Monday night and Tuesday. The S-SE
flow over the weekend will back to the east by mid week as weak
low pressure develops in the southern Gulf. An E-SE flow will then
persist into Friday. A cold front will approach the coastal
waters and the GFS stalls this feature over SE TX while the
EC/Canadian both bring the front through the coastal waters.
Blends want to bring the front through but ensemble guidance
supports the 12z GFS deterministic run. Will keep an east wind for
now and wait for a better consensus. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  71  88  71  85  68 /  10  10  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)          71  87  73  85  69 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)        76  85  76  83  75 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Sunday morning for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45

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