Friday, October 16, 2020

Oct. 16 20

 

Cooperfield, during the early morning. How the sky looked through the early afternoon.
Eldridge near I-10 during the mid-afternoon. The sky was starting to clear.
West Little York, near Beltway 8. On my way to Missouri City, TX, during the early evening.
Beltway 8, headed north toward I-10, during the late evening.
Beltway 8 ramp onto I-10, during the late evening.

Summary: The sky stayed persistently cloudy through the early afternoon and stayed mostly cloudy through the evening with some clearing during the early night before becoming mostly cloudy again through the late night. It felt very cool, during the early and mid-morning. It felt a little cool, during the late morning, afternoon, and evening. it felt cool during the night. The wind speeds were calm during most of the day. The wind speeds were really strong almost knocking free-standing things over, during the early morning. Moderate to moderately heavy showers with some possibly heavy showers passed over my house in Copperfield off and on through the early morning. A steady light rain was falling at my house in Copperfied, during the mid-morning. The steady light rain stopped sometime during the late, or maybe mid-morning.

Thoughts: I enjoyed getting some good rainfall today and last night.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 170204
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
904 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Skies clearing I-10 north and temperatures should cool down
quickly and winds relax while closer to the coast the temperature
fall should be tempered by the more extensive cloud cover and
winds veering to the east. Lows in the north look to bottom out in
the 47-54 degree range and at 55 to 63 at the coast. Toward
morning the temperatures at the coast should be on the rise with
the onshore flow. Some showers will be possible mainly southwest
of Sugarland with the greater chances closer to the frontal
boundary moving inland in the early morning around Matagorda Bay.
45

&&

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
IFR ceilings on the coast should continue to rise as drier air
spreads southward but this will be short lived as isentropic
upglide increases 03-08z from the southwest expanding northward
and MVFR ceilings should expand over the area between 03-08z for
IAH southward then lower further toward 12z. Some sprinkles
possible after 12z with winds turning around to the east and
southeast toward morning. MVFR ceilings should mix out with
southeasterly flow strengthening after 12z. MVFR ceilings
lingering into 17-19z across CLL/UTS area. Late afternoon the
trend though is going to be back down with the development of ST
early Saturday evening.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 314 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020/...





.LONG TERM [Sunday through Friday]...

Front or not front? That`s the main question during the first days
of the long term as model guidance diverges run to run. Upper-level
longwave dominates most of the CONUS, keeping Texas under quasi-
zonal flow. This pattern will result in different
shortwaves/disturbances riding along the flow. The next possible
disturbance and associated surface frontal boundary look to move
over west Texas Sunday into Monday. Latest deterministic guidance
now brings this weak/shallow front across central Texas; however,
the GFS and ECMWF significantly weaken the front just before it
reaches our northwestern counties. The NAM is the most aggressive
model suggesting dewpoints in the 50s behind the front (west-central
TX). Our region is still outside the NAM forecast period; thus, will
see how it handles the front once it gets closer to our CWA on
Monday. For now, the forecast is only based on a weak/no frontal
passage. Given that, our region will continue to be dominated by an
onshore flow pattern thanks to the surface high expected to be
centered over the northeast CONUS by Sunday. The end result will be
an increase in temperatures, which are still above normals for this
time of year. Highs will generally be in the 80s.

Different mid-upper level shortwaves embedded along the upper-flow
will move through the region during the extended period. The
combination of low-level moisture (PWATS increasing into the 1.5 to
1.9 inch range), onshore warm flow, and decent low-mid level
instability will increase rain and storm chances across the region.
The best window for precipitation will be in the afternoon/early
evening. 05


.MARINE...

Cooler air flowing will help to keep wind speeds slightly
elevated tonight especially over the offshore waters. Winds over
the bays have settled down so will cancel the SCA but have some
concerns that the thermal gradient over the bays could tighten
later tonight and a SCEC may yet be required over the bays. Will
allow the SCA to end over the nearshore waters at 00z and will
issue a SCEC through 06z once the SCA expires. Winds will become
east later tonight as surface high pressure moves quickly to the
east. Winds will become SE on Saturday as the sfc high pushes
further east and pressures fall in the panhandle. An E-SE flow
will persist through the end of next week as high pressure ridges
into the area from the NE and weak low pressure develops over the
southern Gulf. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  53  81  68  88  70 /   0  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)          56  80  69  86  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)        63  81  75  83  77 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45

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