Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early night.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, and the Heights and Kirby area of Houston, TX.
Thoughts: The day was a little warmer than the day before. I didn't get time to write this day's weather summary.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 3940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 110409 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1009 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 .UPDATE... Warm front stalled near the coast just south of GLS. Some light fog north of the warm front around the GLS bay area but winds appear to be helping to maintain the stratus deck. Guidance split on where the warm front waffles to overnight. Higher res models leave it in place along the coast and possibly even sagging southward where as GFS is more aggressive moving it inland. For now have favored the slower movement but this could make for a bust at GLS with temperatures potentially rising the remainder of the night. On a further note cold front racing south through KS with dryline/prefrontal trough in West TX slowly moving eastward. The prefrontal trough should swing eastward through the area Thursday afternoon with the cold front a 1-3 hours behind it. Very strong winds are expected behind the front and will persist well into Friday. Northerly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 35 to 40 look within reach and could even be stronger. Wind advisory a given and combined with the winds the temperatures should make the wind chill readings plummet into the 20-30 degree range 7 PM Thursday through 8 AM. 00Z runs also continue to support the threat of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (CAPE 500-1100j/kg with LI of -2 to -5) especially for the northeast and central areas with the erosion of any lingering capping. Hodographs by that point though are relatively linear so other than perhaps some small hail with the stronger storms am not expecting any severe weather. 45 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/ AVIATION... Afternoon surface analysis shows a surface low over southeastern Colorado with an attendant cold front and prefrontal trough extending south into southwest Texas. VFR ceilings outside of the IFR/MVFR ceilings impacting the Houston terminals are expected to lower to MVFR overnight as east to southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots advect additional moisture over the northern Gulf inland. This will result not only in periods of sea fog near GLS this evening as a warm front lifts inland but patchy drizzle near the Houston terminals and points south after 09Z. Webcams around Galveston Bay are already showing patchy sea fog development and expect visibilities at GLS to fluctuate between IFR and MVFR this evening before winds veer to the south overnight as the Colorado low ejects eastward. The departure of the Colorado low will drag the cold front and associated prefrontal trough across the region during the day Thursday, with winds veering to the southwest after 15Z. These veering winds will help raise ceilings to MVFR ahead of the front. Isolated to scattered SHRA will be possible along this prefrontal trough, with winds increasing 15-20 knots with stronger gusts 25-30 knots behind the cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings may linger behind the front as moisture remains trapped beneath a post frontal inversion. Huffman PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... Starting to see some sea fog develop near/off the coast. Look for some of this to start expanding inland overnight along with some late night isolated warm air advection shra under a potent cap. Not looking much of a temp change is expected overnight. Those at the coast may even see a degree or two rise. Upper trof to our west should make its way across the state Thursday and Thursday night. Look for its associated prefrontal trof to push thru southeast Texas during the day tomorrow. PW`s should pool to around 1.2" along and ahead this feature and anticipate some sct shra to develop before it pushes eastward and out of the CWA by 3pm or so. There may be a limited window of opportunity for the cap to erode enough for a few tstms generally east of I-45 during the late morning/early afternoon hours. The cold front itself will trail a few hours and will push thru during the late afternoon and evening. The primary issue with this system will be breezy winds in its wake. Most guidance is indicating some 40-55kt 925mb wind speeds over the region, so with some mixing surface wind gusts 30-40+mph gusts aren`t out of the question Thursday night. Wind advisories will be likely. Wind chills might dip to near 20 well inland. After some wrap around cloudiness Friday morning, look for skies to clear. The remainder of the forecast into early next week will be dry and cool with upper ridging to the west providing a nw flow aloft. A reinforcing front should push into the region Saturday. Freezing overnight temps are a good possibility across several inland locations Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun nights. Low rain chances re-enter the forecast early next week ahead of the next front. 47 MARINE... Moderate southeasterly winds can be expected Wednesday evening through Thursday. Small crafts should exercise caution during this time specifically in the offshore waters. Additionally, sea fog will be possible within Galveston Bay and along the eastern nearshore waters late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Foggy conditions are likely to continue until a strong cold front pushes through the northern Gulf waters, Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. This cold front will leave behind strong northwesterly winds in its wake, with wind speeds between 30 to 40 knots gusting to around 45 knots at times. Rough seas are expected to increase from 5-7 feet to 8-11 feet with the occasional seas up to 15 feet in the offshore waters, early Friday morning. A Gale Watch has been issued for the near and offshore waters for Thursday evening into Friday morning. Small Craft Advisories and a Gale Warning will likely be needed. Additionally, a Low Level Water Advisory looks likely behind the cold front for Galveston Bay as guidance continues to show water levels falling to 1.5-2.5 feet below normal. Gradually decreasing offshore winds and lowering seas are expected over the weekend, but caution flags and advisories may still be needed for portions of the marine zones through Saturday night. Moderate onshore winds should prevail by Monday morning. Hathaway FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Friday with gusty north northwest winds and 25-30% humidities. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 68 30 51 29 / 20 30 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 59 73 35 51 31 / 20 50 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 71 38 50 38 / 10 50 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...45
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 342 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ213-214-235>238-112145- Brazoria-Chambers- Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM- Galveston-Galveston Bay-Harris-Jackson-Matagorda-Matagorda Bay- Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM- 342 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...Tonight Areas of fog may reduce visibility below 1 mile at times. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Areas of sea fog will persist into the early afternoon Thursday. Expect strong winds in the wake of a passing cold front Thursday evening. Wind gusts 30 to 45 mph will be possible into Friday morning. Gale warnings and wind advisories may be required. Seas will build offshore as this occurs. We will be keeping an eye for low water conditions in the bays as well. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. $$
No comments:
Post a Comment