Thursday, January 25, 2018

Jan. 24 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Weather forecast predicting rain/snow for the Houston, TX area, recorded on this day, during the early afternoon. For Friday Feburary 2nd, 2018. Which was quickly replaced with just a chance for rain, later in the day.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was dry, sunny, and calm. I didn't see any precip on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any drops of precip, where I was in northwest Houston, TX, during the day. Alto stratus with maybe some stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with some gentle to moderate gusts, I think, and maybe some moderately strong gusts. It felt cold, during the early morning. I think it felt cool, during the mid-morning and evening. I think it felt a little cool, during the late morning. I think it felt warm, during the afternoon. I think it felt very cool, during the early night. I think it felt cold, during the late night. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of, during anytime of the day. The low temperatures looked to be in the high 30's with maybe some mid 30's, I think, and the high temperatures looked to be in the low 60's with maybe some mid 60's, I think, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: I didn't see any precip on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about any flooding, or damage caused by the weather to any of the locations in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day.


My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any drops of precip, where I was in northwest Houston, TX, during the day. I didn't see any precip producing, or storm type clouds, where I was in northwest Houston, TX, during anytime of the day. The ground and roads looked to be dry with maybe still some puddles left over from a couple days ago, where I was in northwest Houston, TX, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I didn't see any lightning strikes, or hear any rumbles of thunder. I didn't see any flooding, or damage caused by the weather, where I was in northwest Houston, TX, during anytime of the day.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Not much going on with the weather. I can't wait until Spring. The rain/snow forecast for Feburary 2, 2018 was quickly replaced with just a chance for rain, later in the day.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
742 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

We hate to sound like a music app with the repeat button active,
but that`s your weather forecast at least in the near term.
Tonight should be a repeat of last night with some high clouds
moving across SE Texas but the airmass remains dry with high
pressure over much of the area. Winds have or will be decoupling
allowing for radiational cooling. Low temperatures back down in
the 30s look on track with 40s along the coast. A few spots may
reach the freezing mark for a few hours for a light freeze.

Rest of the forecast looks on track with rain chances increasing
this weekend mainly along the coast. Only changes to the forecast
were for ongoing trends.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 517 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/...

.LONG TERM...
Surface high pressure over Central Texas will move slowly east
overnight. This feature will bring clear skies and cool
temperatures to the region. There could be a light freeze late
tonight from about Conroe to to Crockett by Thursday morning.
Onshore winds will return on Thursday as the high moves east.
Moisture will begin to deepen Thursday night and skies will
quickly become cloudy. PW values will exceed an inch by Friday
morning and fcst soundings show a strong cap at 700 mb but
saturated beneath the cap. A weak short wave coupled with the
increasing moisture in the WAA pattern should result in some
light rain showers developing between 09-12z Friday. Overnight
lows on Thursday night will likely occur around 06z with
temperatures steady or slowly rising between 06-12z Friday.

PW values will remain between 1.0 and 1.2 inches on Friday but
forecast soundings continue to show a saturated layer beneath 700
mb. There looks like there is enough low level moisture to
generate some showers and will maintain the chance PoPs currently
in the grids. Moisture levels look a bit better on Saturday and PW
values deepen to between 1.3 and 1.5 inches. Fcst soundings show
the cap eroding but CAPE values remain very low. Lift will
increase on Saturday on the east of an upper level trough moving
across the southern plains while a weak upper level disturbance
moves up the coast. Low level convergence strengthens near the
coast as well as a weak coastal trough tries to develop. Will
carry likely PoPs near the coast and taper PoPs significantly to
the NW. Although CAPE values are benign, the lack of a cap coupled
with the disturbance should yield a few thunderstorms on
Saturday. Rain should come to an end Saturday night as a weak cold
front crosses the region. SE TX will lie on the west side of the
upper trough on Sunday and am expecting skies to clear during the
day. The first half of next week looks uneventful with generally
clear skies Mon-Wed with seasonal temperatures. 43


.AVIATION...
Outside of a patch of high cirrus near the coast, we`re seeing SKC
across the area this evening. Look for winds overnight to become
light again, picking back up to around 10 knots out of the east
or southeast tomorrow around mid-day. Towards the end of the
forecast period may see the return of higher clouds, and bases
could reach as low as 10k or so feet, though it may also hold off
until later in the evening and fall outside this particular
forecast cycle. For this, am largely holding to SKC or 250
mentions for now - but by the 06Z cycle, the forecast may extend
far enough to show some lowering trend.

Luchs


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  37  64  47  66  56 /   0  10  10  30  40
Houston (IAH)          36  65  49  65  57 /   0  10  10  30  40
Galveston (GLS)        47  61  53  65  58 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...25

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