Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-morning.
Tomball, TX, I think, am pretty sure, during the mid-morning.
The Woodlands, TX, during the mid-morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the early night.
Houston, TX radar, during the late night.
Locations: Northwest, central, and southeast Houston, TX. Deer Park, TX, Tomball, TX, Spring, TX, and maybe the Woodlands, and Klien, TX.
Thoughts: Didn't get time to write a weather summary for this day. The sky stayed cloudy and then scattered showers with maybe some thunderstorms started to roll in through the Houston, TX area, during the early night and continued through the late night. The groomer that I assist for and I drove through some moderate to moderately heavy showers on our way back to the Woodlands, TX, from the TICA Cat Show in Deer Park, TX, during the early night. I think I only saw some light rain and drizzle, during the rest of the day.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 270242 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 842 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 .UPDATE... Light rain or showery conditions filling in and progressing up the upper Texas coastline in association with a series of weak impulses that will be leading broad upper level troughing whose 5H axis is now exiting the Rockies and entering the West Plains states. Higher PVA and Theta E air will reside along the coast and points offshore through the passage of tomorrow`s cold front. Thus...the highest QPF and the higher threat for any isolated thunder will occur over our coastal counties and local bay and Gulf waters through tomorrow afternoon. Many locations are expected to pick up between a couple of tenths to around a half an inch of rain...upwards to slightly over an inch closer to the coast...by late tomorrow afternoon. Gentle upglide pattern with inland (Saturday) prog soundings coming in too stable...weak lapse rates above a near surface (morning) capping layer. The bulk of the precipitation will fall overnight and Saturday morning. The gentle entrance of the frontal boundary that will back southeasterlies around to the northeast will slowly begin the drying out process from tomorrow afternoon through evening. The backing air mass will be Pacific-in-origin and will slowly cool and dry out the column through Sunday. So...after a overcast and damp Saturday mainly spent in the 60s...Sunday morning will be mostly cloudy and mild with minTs in the low to mid 50s. A slight delay in the cool air advection Sunday. After a partially clearing Sunday in the afternoon 60s...Monday and Tuesday`s weather will be relatively cooler (non-freezing) 30s/40s warming into the lower 60s under clear starry/sunny skies. North winds will veer back around to onshore by Tuesday. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ AVIATION... Tricky forecast ahead - clouds at MVFR level, but not consistently creating a ceilings...yet. That should change, and have the reflected with best estimate of when that may occur, but timing will be tough and may require on the fly amendments. Radar is alight with echoes to the southwest of the coastal sites, but observations of rain are lagging fairly well behind and these lead echoes may be virga at first. As such, have largely kept timing on rain the same as last cycle, but may also need to be amended quickly if the column moistens up and rain falls to the ground more quickly than expected. Overnight, showers should continue for much of the area, but particularly near the coast. Am a little more optimistic on flight conditions than the guidance, but still bring things down to IFR and near LIFR for many. Will eventually get better once the front rolls through, but expect a long VCSH tail with only gradually improving conditions through most (all?) of the day. 25 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/ DISCUSSION... A weak short wave trough will move NE tonight and bring mainly the the coastal portions of SE TX a good chance of rain. Lift will be enhanced as ascent increases on the east side of an upper trough moving across the southern plains. TT WRF performed well yesterday and has initialized best today so will lean toward the WRF tonight. Showers will expand in coverage after 03z with the best rain chances between 06-12z. RAP/HiRes ARW and NMM guidance are in good agreement with the high rain chances near the coast. The GFS continues to show a lot of dry air at 850 mb. If the GFS verifies, rain chances will need to be lowered. Coverage should wane Saturday morning in the wake of the short wave but won`t end completely since SE TX will still have some lift courtesy of the upper trough. Water temps are in the lower 50`s and dew pts are progged to reach the lower 60`s later tonight. Would expect sea fog to develop over parts of the upper Texas coast tonight and linger into Saturday. At 2 PM, KXIH is already showing visibility down to 4 miles. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory may be required later tonight. Rain should diminish Saturday night as a weak cold front crosses the area. Fcst soundings show considerable drying above 850 mb. Not sure there will be enough moisture to generate showers even with an approaching trough axis. SE TX will lie on the west side of the trough axis on Sunday and skies will begin to clear from west to east with clear skies expected areawide by late afternoon. A dry northwest flow will develop over the state as weak upper level ridging tries to develop in the wake of the this weekend`s upper trough. The upper flow will become more zonal Tues night into Wednesday as another upper trough approaches the southern plains. The upper trough axis and a weak surface cold front will approach SE TX Thursday night. These features will generate scattered showers Thursday night and cooler temps for next Friday. 43 MARINE... A disturbance moving up the Texas coast tonight through tomorrow morning will help to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage. Sea fog (some maybe dense) will be possible too. The rain and fog threat will gradually diminish after a cold front moves off the coast on Saturday night. Increasing north winds and building seas behind the front will likely require caution flags Saturday night through Monday, and advisories might be needed too. The north winds will come back around to an onshore flow Tuesday through Thursday as surface high pressure moves off to the east and low pressure begins to deepen to our northwest. Another cold front could arrive next Thursday night or Friday. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 67 52 65 41 / 50 50 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 57 70 55 64 44 / 60 60 30 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 64 55 61 47 / 70 80 30 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...31/25
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 306 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-272115- Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston- Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller- Washington-Wharton- 306 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Showers will increase in coverage this evening with a burst of heavier rain toward midnight. Fog will also develop tonight and could reduce visibility below a mile at times. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. $$
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