Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early night.
Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and dry. There looked a to be a few moderately heavy to heavy showers and thunderstorms in the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I felt a a few drops of rain, at work in northwest Houston, TX, sometime during the late afternoon, or maybe early evening. Alto status and stratus clouds with some stratocumulus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, and evening. The sky looked to have become clear, during the night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle gusts and maybe some moderate gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning, late evening, and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning and early evening. It felt hot, almost very hot, during the late morning and afternoon. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.
Houston, TX Storm Summary: There looked to be some isolated moderately heavy to heavy showers and thunderstorms in and around the Houston, TX, during the morning, afternoon, evneing, and night. There were still some road closures going on in the Houston, TX area. There were probably still some roads covered with water in the Houston, TX area. I didn't hear about any reports of any storm damage.
My Storm Summary: The clouds looked to have become darker and I felt some rain drops, while at work in northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon, or maybe early evening. I didn't see any wet roads, or flooding, or any lightning strikes. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder. I didn't see any storm damage.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.
Thoughts: It felt really hot outside today, compared to yesterday and these past few weeks.\
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 192352 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 652 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .AVIATION... Widely scattered storms winding down this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Will be keeping an eye out west with the activity associated with an eastward moving shortwave, but will also be ex- pecting this activity to die off shortly after sunset. MVFR to IFR CIGS will be possible across the area overnight (particularly over our northern inland sites)...but the best chances for some ISO WAA type showers will be closer to the coast. With a slightly more ac- tive southern stream jet have added the mention of VCSH for all of the TAFS tomorrow. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/ More typical late summer weather in Southeast Texas for the next several days. Several very subtle features will impact the forecast into early next week. This makes the forecasting process intriguing, but the impacts appear to be mostly limited to temperature changes of a few degrees and just how scattered the scattered showers and storms will be. Based on how how these subtleties play out, things like preferred days for more numerous showers may shift a bit in the coming days. However, the broad concept of typical late summer weather seems clear. Of course, "typical" does not always mean "no hazards". The strongest of each day`s storms can be capable of some gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. This is the type of setup in which one gauge might see 4 inches of rain, while another gauge nearby sees about a third of an inch. NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A subtle, but readily apparent shortwave ridge is beginning to exit Southeast Texas per analysis and water vapor imagery. Its impact on today`s convection has been similarly apparent, with considerably fewer showers and storms so far today. However, it appears the next weak shortwave trough will begin to approach the region, and is attended by an uptick in convective activity to our west. This may mean a little more activity for the late afternoon until we lose heating this evening, but we still look unlikely to match yesterday`s activity. Temperatures today have been a little higher than forecast as convection so far has been even more limited than already expected. But with thoughts that clouds may tick up in the next few hours and our lows look to be governed at least in part by the high dewpoint floor, don`t think it will have a very significant effect outside of these first few hours of the forecast. SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... By Wednesday, a new shortwave trough will be crossing the area, which should provide some upward boost to that day`s convection. Now, that said, this doesn`t seem to appear in all of the guidance, which ranges from virtually dry (NAM) to decently wet. It`s worth noting that guidance does seem to step precipitable water values down a little from the two inch numbers we`ve seen of late, and there may be some timing issues - a slightly faster shortwave may put us just on the subsident side of the trough by late afternoon. This could hamper convective development as well. Probably don`t want to get too terribly wrapped up in the details as the difference in impacts isn`t huge. What there does seem a clearer signal of in the guidance is that a coastal boundary looks to be the primary focus for convection, and we still have enough moisture to produce locally heavy rainfall. The NCAR WRF ensemble shows a fair to strong signal for some locally heavy rain along the coast. The strongest signal looks to lie just east of our area closer to the TX/LA border, but there`s surely some potential for cells dropping a quick few inches here. For Thursday, cyclonic flow aloft looks to stay in place, and give us stable or slightly falling midlevel heights over the area again on Thursday. This would bolster the idea the previous shift had that Thursday could see one more day of relatively higher coverage in showers and storms. This may be somewhat subject to change as the broad eastern US ridge will be starting to amplify, and could see a scenario in which we actually are drier on Thursday. However, given the relative consistency in seeing a developing upper low on the Gulf Coast in the models, will hold onto the idea of a wetter Thursday. LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... Guidance continues to show a trend to an amplifying west trough/east ridge pattern, but also with an upper low developing along the northern Gulf Coast. Farther to the east, Jose and Maria continue to have a tricky interaction - this dance of tropical cyclones won`t be directly impacting our weather, but I do wonder how it may impact the aforementioned upper low, as our precip chances this weekend into early next week may be influenced by just how far west it gets before being drawn back up into the northern stream westerlies. Because of this, I try to work in broad strokes on the PoPs with less variation than I might normally. In general, go a little lower Friday and Saturday, and a bump up for the rest of the weekend into early next week. This is not a significant difference from the previous shift, which had similar trends. As far as temps go, I don`t see heights going low enough to really imply a big shift in temperatures, but do get a couple degrees cooler on highs as we head deeper into the weekend. It`s beyond the scope of the forecast, but models diverge significantly later next week as a cold front drags into Texas and potentially towards the area. There is precious little agreement in the models outside of the existence of a front, however, so details on this will have to be sussed out in the coming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 91 76 92 72 / 20 20 10 30 10 Houston (IAH) 77 90 77 89 73 / 20 50 20 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 86 80 87 78 / 20 30 20 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201300- Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend- Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda- Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington- Wharton- 352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will occur today. Isolated strong storms could produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday and Thursday with isolated strong storms producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall possible. Thunderstorm chances are expected to diminish on Friday and Saturday before returning Sunday and Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. $$
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