Oct. 30 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afrernoon.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.

Summary: The day was mostly warm, mostly cloudy, and dry. No rain, that I know of. NOAA said that there were some possible light showers of drizzle, near the coast, during the evening and night, but I didn't see any rain on the radar over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be clear, during the morning. Alto stratus and stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts and some occasional moderately strong gusts. It felt cold, during the early morning. It felt very cool, during the mid-morning. It started to feel cool, almost warm, during the late morning. It felt warm with cool wind gusts, during the early afternoon. It felt warm, during the afternoon and evening. It felt a little cool, during the night. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the high to mid 40's and the high temperatures looked to be in the high 70's with maybe some low 80's, for the Houston, TX area.

Houston, TX Storm Summary:  No rain, that I know of. NOAA said that there were some possible light showers of drizzle, near the coast, during the evening and night, but I didn't see any rain on the radar over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't hear about, or see any reports of any flooding, or storm damage.

My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.

Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.

Thoughts: It felt a lot warmer today, than it did these past few days. I am looking forward to more warm weather.

Oct. 29 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.

Heights area, Houston, TX. during the late night.

Summary: The day was very cool, sunny, and dry. No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear about any rain drops. I think there were some alto stratus and maybe some stratus clouds scattered across the sky, during the morning. The sky looked to be clear with maybe some alto and cirro stratus clouds, during the afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some gentle to moderate gusts and maybe some moderately strong gusts. It felt very cold, almost freezing, during the early morning. It felt cold, during the mid-morning. It felt very cool, during the late morning. It felt cool, almost warm, during the afternoon. It felt cool, during the early evening. It felt very cool, almost cold, during the late evening and night. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the high 30's with maybe some mid to low 30's and the high temperatures looked to be in the low 70's with maybe some high to mid 60's, for the Houston, TX area.

Houston, TX Storm Summary: No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about any flooding, or damage.

My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.

Locations: Northwest, Heights, and maybe north Houston, TX.

Thoughts: It felt very cold this morning. I am very glad to see temperatures in the 80's for highs and 60's, for lows in the Houston, TX forecast this week.

Oct. 28 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

Conroe, TX, in WG Jones State Forest Park, during the mid-morning.

Cypress, TX, during the late morning.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.

Summary: The day was mostly cloudy, very cool, and dry. No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX, or Conroe, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Alto stratus and stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, in the Houston, TX and Conroe, TX area, during the morning, Alto stratus and stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, in northwest Houston, TX, during the afternoon. Alto stratus and stratus clouds looked to be widely scattered across the sky, during the evening. The sky looked to have become clear during the early, or maybe late night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some moderately strong gusts, in the Houston, TX and Conroe, TX area, during the morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some moderately strong gusts, in the Houston, TX area, during the afternoon and evening. The wind speeds looked to be calm, in the Houston, TX area, during the night. It felt very cold, during the early morning and late night. It felt cold, during the mid-morning and early night. It felt very cool, almost cool, during the late morning, afternoon, and evening. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the low to mid 40's and the high temperatures looked to be in the low 60's with maybe some mid 60's, for the Houston, TX area.

Houston, TX And Conroe, TX Storm Summary:  No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX, or Conroe, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about any flooding, or damage, anywhere in the Houston, TX, or Conroe, TX area.

My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm like, or rain producing like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.

Locations: Northwest and north Houston, TX, Cypress, TX, and Conroe, TX.

Thoughts: I didn't feel as cold as I thought I was going to feel, on my hike through WG Jones State Forest Park in Conroe, TX.

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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---

000
FXUS64 KHGX 290242
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
942 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017


.DISCUSSION...
Skies have cleared out. Temperatures falling quickly in very dry
airmass. Will likely see an hour of freezing temperatures near
Crockett but otherwise temperatures should level off at 33-36 in
the rural areas and warmer in the Metro. Winds have nearly
decoupled inland and should in the next hour or two. Winds over
the coastal waters should gradually lessen and seas subsiding as
well. Will let SCA rollover to SCEC for the early morning hours.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR. Light northerly winds overnight becoming calm. Southwest
winds 5-10kts developing after 14z over most of the area. A few
patches of CI possible.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions, calm winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies will allow for very good radiational cooling overnight
as surface high pressure settles into the area. Much of inland
Southeast Texas can expect low temperatures to bottom out in
the 30s before sunrise which could be near record low readings.
The current forecast package looks right on track, and no
significant changes are anticipated on the evening update.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and much cooler weather has settled in across Southeast Texas
today behind yesterday`s cold front. Visible satellite imagery
shows a few mid and high level clouds streaming across the region
as the base of an upper level trough continues to nudge eastward
and expect at least periods of thin cloud cover to drift across
the region tonight as this upper trough swings east of the region.

As surface high pressure centered near Abilene this afternoon
slides across the region tonight, a nearly non-existent surface
pressure gradient will result in calm winds across the region.
Dry conditions, calm winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies will allow for temperatures to radiationally cool into the
30s and lower across much of the region tonight, with a few
locations along and east of a Madisonville-Conroe-Cleveland line
possibly even seeing freezing to just below freezing temperatures
for a brief period of time. However, the aforementioned passing
clouds may result in less than perfect radiational cooling
conditions and have low confidence on the duration of freezing
temperatures in this area. As a result, have opted to hold off on
any kind of Freeze Warning as the duration of freezing
temperatures is expected to be too short for widespread impacts
(likely sometime in the hours around sunrise) but will highlight
this risk area with a Special Weather Statement. In addition to
the potential for freezing temperatures, record low temperatures
will also be a possibility in the Houston metro Sunday morning.
For more information on these records, please see the climate
section included at the end of this discussion.

Northwest flow aloft becomes established tomorrow as the upper
trough exits the region, allowing dry conditions to continue.
Expect temperatures to warm a few degrees higher than today into
the upper 60s-lower 70s as the departure of the surface high
results in light southwesterly winds developing across the region.
The warming trend continues into Monday as highs climb into the
mid 70s to lower 80s, with southerly winds drawing Gulf moisture
back into the region. Only expect enough moisture return Monday to
result in a few clouds, but it will allow for scattered showers
to spread into Southeast Texas by Tuesday.

The flow aloft flattens during the mid-week period as a strong
upper low drops to the Great Lakes out of Canada and a compact
disturbance now 400 miles off the California coast reaches
southern California. As a sub-tropical jet slides across Texas in
the quasi-zonal flow aloft, widespread forcing for ascent will
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each day
Wednesday through the end of the week. Expect coverage to be
enhanced by passing disturbances in the flow aloft, likely on
Wednesday when energy from the compact disturbance off the
California coast arrives. Similar to what the
overnight package noted, will have to keep an eye on the mid-week
period for locally heavy rain potential as deep Gulf moisture
(GFS forecast precipitable water values in the 1.7-1.9 inch range)
surges back into the region. A secondary disturbance looks to
arrive sometime Friday/this weekend, resulting in another round of
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage. Given timing
differences in medium range guidance on the arrival of this
feature, have kept low rain chances through the weekend.

Huffman

MARINE...
The large high pressure cell over central Texas will expand
eastward and envelope eastern Texas and surrounding coastal waters
through Sunday. The result will be to loosen the offshore
pressure gradient and take Saturday afternoon`s moderate to strong
northerly flow to below caution levels near sunrise. Responding
sea heights will gradually fall from 3-4 feet nearshore/6-7 feet
offshore to below areawide 4 feet by late morning Sunday. Winds
will significantly weaken and become variable to onshore tomorrow
afternoon through early Monday. Onshore flow resumes Monday
morning and western water winds may strengthen to near caution
criteria Tuesday. A mid week weak upper level trough passage may
push a weak surface front into northeastern Texas and slightly
back surface onshore winds more easterly...increase Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday shower and thunderstorm chances. 31

FIRE WEATHER...
The cooler and drier backing air mass behind yesterday`s frontal
passage has elevated the potential for hazardous fire weather
conditions. Afternoon relative humidities falling into the 20%s
will aid in further curing quick-burning/igniting fuels (grasses).
North winds will significantly weaken tonight and remain weak
southwest tomorrow afternoon. Onshore flow resumes Monday and this
will steadily increase moisture into mid week. The approach and
passage of a shallow upper trough may advance a weak surface
boundary into northern Texas. A higher probability of Tuesday
through Thursday precipitation in the vicinity of this boundary
laying within a more humid air mass. 31

CLIMATE...
Record low temperatures may be tied or broken on October 29. A
listing of current record low temperatures for the primary climate
sites are listed below.

                        OCTOBER 29
LOCATION          RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE       YEAR
Houston IAH                39                  1910
Houston HOU                42                  1952
College Station            32                  1910
Galveston                  45                  1913

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      35  72  46  79  56 /   0   0   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)              39  70  49  78  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            48  67  58  77  69 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT Sunday for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-291530-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
1025 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across much of
Southeast Texas this afternoon with humidities in the twenties
and northerly winds of 10 to 15 mph.

Pockets of freezing temperatures are possible across parts of the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods regions tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast by the middle of
the upcoming week and locally heavy rainfall may be possible
during this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

Oct. 27 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.

Summary: The day was cool, mostly cloudy, and windy. A line of light to moderately heavy showers passed through most of the Houston, TX area, during the morning, followed by some isolated light to moderate showers through the evening and maybe night. A brief moderate to moderately heavy shower passed over where I work in northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-morning. I didn't see any more rain after that. Stratus and some alto stratus clouds looked to cover part of the sky, during the early morning. Stratus clouds looked to cover almost the whole sky and maybe sometimes the whole sky, during the mid and late morning and early afternoon. Alto stratus and stratus cloud looked to be widely scattered across the sky, during the mid and late afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some really strong 20 to 25 mph gusts, and maybe some occasional 30 mph gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning. It started to feel very cool, almost cold, during the mid-morning. It felt cool, during the late morning, afternoon, and evening. It started to feel cold, during the early night. It felt cold, during the late night. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in low 50's with maybe some high to mid 40's and the high temperatures looked to be in the low to mid 60's with maybe some high 60's, for the Houston, TX area.

Houston, TX Storm Summary: A line of light to moderately heavy showers passed through most of the Houston, TX area, during the morning, followed by some isolated light to moderate showers through the evening and maybe night. I didn't see, or hear about any reports of any flooding, or storm damages.

My Storm Summary: A brief moderate to moderately heavy shower passed over where I work in northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-morning. I didn't see any more rain after that. I didn't see any flooding, puddles, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.

Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.

Thoughts: I am really not enjoying this early start to cold weather.

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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---

000
FXUS64 KHGX 280053
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
753 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Rain tapering off with only a few sprinkles across the northwest
counties and along the immediate coast. Further offshore closer to
the surface front or just behind the front showers and even a few
thunderstorms. Temperatures have fallen to the mid to upper 50s
inland and lower 60s coast but these will continue to fall with
the CAA in place overnight. Winds should gradually relax through 3
am as cloud cover across the area ahead of the speed max shifts
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mid level deck of clouds 6000-12000ft. N to NW winds
9-15kt gusting to 25kts. Warm sounding below 9000ft with a few
sprinkles possible as upper disturbance swings through the region
until around 06z. Then clearing and a relaxation of the winds
inland. Gusty winds will likely develop again inland tomorrow as
surge of cooler drier air arrives.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fall has finally returned to southeast TX with leading cold front
now well offshore and north winds in place across the area. A few
thunderstorms over the gulf will continue to push away from the
region as the cold front continues to the southeast. Behind the
front, WV imagery suggests area of deep ascent continues to move
across central TX maintaining some clouds and we will hold onto
at least a mention of light showers into the evening until this
shifts east of the area. Blustery north winds and steadily falling
temperatures will be the main story this evening and overnight.
We should see morning lows in the mid to upper 30s over a large
part of the area, with upper 40s along the immediate coast. These
will easily be the coldest temps of the season, and the coldest
since last winter.

Skies will clear by sunrise Saturday, although cold air advection
and brisk north winds will keep things quite cool as we top out
in the lower 60s for highs. Clear skies and light winds could
bring even cooler temps Saturday night into Sunday morning. We
will have to keep a close eye on freezing temps perhaps over
colder spots up north around sunrise on Sunday. Sunday will be
sunny, cool with lighter winds.

High pressure begins moving eastward offshore into the Gulf on
Monday as we get a more zonal pattern aloft. Warm air advection
and southerly wind shift behind the high pressure system will
bring dew points back into the 50s and temperatures in the high
70s to lower 80s, just above climatological values. Skies become
partly cloudy early next week with the southerly wind shift
surging in more moisture from the Gulf.

This moisture surge brings our next big chance for rain on Tuesday
afternoon, combined with a shortwave trough progressing into the
area from Mexico. High temperatures for next week will be back near
80 with lows in the low to mid-60s. Cloud cover increases through
the week behind the shortwave pattern as a cold front approaches the
area from the northwest. All models show the front dissipating and
not passing through the area, but the upper-level trough axis will
still bring high chances of rain Wednesday through early Thursday
morning.

Our pattern remains unsettled through the end of next week. Models
show a cutoff low off the coast of California progressing into the
area as a shortwave trough, but there is enough disagreement between
models so that the timing romaines uncertain. GFS solution
suggests a passage over the area Friday night while the Euro
brings the shortwave trough through to the northwest of the area
on Saturday night.

..MISCELLANEOUS CLIMATE DATA... The record minimum temperature
for Galveston on October 28th is 47 degrees, set in 1957.

Evans/Magee

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to push across the coastal waters
along a cold front this afternoon, with winds and waves expected to
increase behind the front through the remainder of the afternoon and
into the overnight hours. Water temperatures ahead of the cold front
were in the low to mid 70s along the coast, which will encourage
stronger wind gusts above the surface to mix down behind the front.
As a result, a few wind gusts near gale force will be possible. Have
made no changes to the Small Craft Advisories in effect as current
hazards are handled well. Strong offshore flow through tomorrow may
result in tide levels falling to 0.5 to 1.0 feet below MLLW at times
of low tide, but low water issues are not currently expected as
winds begin decreasing late Saturday as surface ridging slides
farther south into Texas.

Light offshore flow Sunday will gradually become onshore by Monday
as surface ridging moves over the northern Gulf, with light to
occasionally moderate onshore flow persisting through the end of the
week.

Huffman

FIRE WEATHER...
Northerly winds 10-15 MPH are expected to persist on Saturday with
afternoon relative humidity values falling below 30 percent. A
period of elevated fire weather conditions may develop in areas
where fine fuels like grasses have had a chance to partially cure,
mainly across portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods regions.
Dry conditions are expected to persist again on Sunday, but lighter
winds should mitigate against elevated fire weather conditions.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      37  62  37  72  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              41  62  41  69  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            48  63  51  68  61 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

Oct. 26 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.

North Houston, TX, I think, during the late evening.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.

Summary: The day was sunny, clear, and breezy. No rain. I didn't see any rain on the Houston, TX radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be completely clear of clouds, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm during the early morning, then calm with gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong gusts, during the mid and late morning. The wind speeds looked to be gentle with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some occasional really strong 20 to 25 mph gusts, during the afternoon and maybe early evening. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some gentle to moderate gusts and some occasional moderately strong gusts, during the late evening and night. It felt cold, during the early morning. It started to feel cool, during the mid-morning. It started to feel warm with a little cool breeze, during the late morning. It felt warm with a little cool breeze, during the afternoon and early evening. It felt a little cool, during the late evening and night. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the low to mid 50's with maybe some 40's and the high temperatures looked to be in the high 70's with maybe a few low 80's, for the Houston, TX area.

Houston, TX Storm Summary: No rain. I didn't see any rain on the Houston, TX radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about any reports of flooding, or storm damage.

My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing type clouds, flooding, wet road, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.

Locations: Northwest and maybe north Houston, TX.

Thoughts: I enjoyed the warm temperatures and gusty wind!

Oct. 25 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

Summary: The day was sunny, clear, and dry. No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be completely cleared of any clouds, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to calm with gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong gusts. It felt cold, during the early morning. It felt very cool, during the mid-morning. It started to feel cool, becoming only a little cool, during the late morning. It felt warm with a little cool wind gust, during the afternoon and evening. It started to feel cool during the early night. It felt very cool, during the late night. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the mid to high 40's with maybe some low 40's and the high temperatures looked to be in the mid to high 70's, for the Houston, TX area.

Houston, TX Storm Summary: No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't hear about any reports of flooding, or storm damage.

My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing like clouds,, flooding, wet road, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.

Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.

Thoughts: It defiantly felt cold this morning. I had to wear a L.L. Bean hoodie to work. 

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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---

534
FXUS64 KHGX 260253
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast is in good shape. Grids have already been updated to
match current conditions and re-shipped back out.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017/
AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions prevailing with this TAF package as the
cool dry airmass lingers over SE TX. Light offshore winds should
be shifting to the SW/S overnight through tomorrow with the high
moving off to the east. Wind gusts will again be possible during
the afternoon as the slightly higher winds aloft mix down to the
surface. Limited moisture return will also limit overnight CIGS/
VIS issues. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017/
Another cool...clear dry night is on tap tonight. As surface
ridge passes west to east across the area winds back from N and NW
to more SW overnight. SW winds increase and become more S on
Thursday allowing for moist airmass to begin to advect back into
the area. Cold front drops SEWD across the southern plains
tomorrow and crosses the forecast area from NW to SE on Friday.
Models suggest front will reach the coast around midday Friday
then push offshore during afternoon and evening with breezy and
again cooler and drier conditions in its wake. Given limited
moisture return front will likely go through dry or with just
light showers over NW zones. However would expect a more solid
line of showers as the front tracks into somewhat deeper moisture
near the coast. Have thus kept POPs varying from high chance SE
zones for Friday to slight chance 20s far NW for Friday. Most
areas should be dry Friday night with just perhaps some lingering
showers far SE zones in the evening. Winds will be gusty Friday
night over marine areas and for areas downwind of the bays...such
as Bolivar and Galveston Island.

For Saturday expect a cool dry day with high temperatures only in
the lower to mid 60s at best. Saturday night with surface high
building in and diminishing winds...looks to be a good night for
radiational cooling and will likely be the coldest night so far
this season. Some of the guidance suggests low temps Saturday
night could drop near freezing northern zones and mostly in the
30s elsewhere...warmer near the water. Surface high shifts east
for Monday with onshore flow and more moist airmass returning.
GFS and ECMWF models both showing another front dropping into the
area by Tuesday...this one slower moving. Still several days out
but looking like shower and thunderstorms possible with this next
front Tuesday.  Reilly

MARINE...
Offshore winds and seas continue to decrease across the coastal
waters this afternoon as surface ridging slides across Southeast
Texas. Onshore flow resumes by Thursday morning and strengthens
ahead of an approaching cold front. Caution or advisory flags may be
needed ahead of the cold front Thursday and Thursday night for
moderate onshore flow and again needed behind the cold front by
Friday afternoon as strong offshore flow becomes established behind
the cold front. Expect waves to build accordingly with stronger
flow, approaching 7-9 feet across the offshore waters Friday night.
Conditions are expected to improve through the day Saturday as
surface high pressure builds into Southeast Texas.  Huffman

FIRE WEATHER...
South to southwest flow becoming established this evening will help
promote good to very good overnight recoveries, but minimum
afternoon humidities are again forecast to drop into the 25-35
percent range north of Highway 59 on Thursday. These lower
humidities, combined with winds increasing into the 10-15 MPH
range (with stronger gusts 20-25 MPH), may result in periods of
elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday. Chances for wetting
rains are low with a cold front crossing the region on Friday and
drier air and northerly winds 10-15 MPH behind the front on
Saturday may result in another day with elevated fire weather
concerns.  Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      50  82  55  66  36 /   0   0  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              53  82  62  69  42 /   0   0  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            65  80  71  76  50 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

Oct. 24 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning

Summary: The day was clear, sunny, and dry. No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be completely clear of any clouds, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with maybe some occasional moderately strong gusts, during the morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong gusts with some occasional really strong 20 mph gusts, during the afternoon, evening, and night. It felt very cool, during the early morning. It felt cool, during the mid-morning and night. It started to feel warm, during the late morning. It felt warm, during the afternoon and early evening. It felt a little cool, during the late evening. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. The low temperatures looked to be in the 50's with maybe some 60's and the high temperatures looked to be around the mid to high 70's, for the Houston, TX area.

Houston, TX Storm Summary: No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about any flooding, or storm damage.

My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't didn't see any rain producing, or storm like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.

Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.

Thoughts: Just a nice clear and sunny day for the Houston, TX area.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1016 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-251530-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
1016 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in place across both Matagorda and
Galveston Bay, near and offshore waters through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Small Craft Advisory will continue over the offshore waters
through late Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

Oct. 23 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.

Summary: The day was sunny, cool, and dry. No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be mostly clear with some alto stratus clouds in the background, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts and maybe some moderately strong gusts. It felt very cool, almost cold, during the early morning. It felt cool, during the mid-morning. It felt a little cool, during the late morning and night. It felt a little cool, almost warm, during the afternoon and evening. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the low to mid 50's and the high temperatures looked to be in the mid to maybe high 70's, for the Houston, TX area.

Houston, TX Storm Summary: No rain. I didn't see any rain on the radar, in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about any reports of flooding, or storm damages.

My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.

Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.

Thoughts: It is starting to feel cool again. I am having to learn how to turn my new car's heater on. I bought it back on March 12 of this year and haven't had to really use the ever heater since, until now.

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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---

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240253
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
A cool overnight with temperatures bottoming out in the interior
lower 50s...coastal lower 60s. A secondary cold front to come
through and provide a shot of colder...drier air to the region
tomorrow. Strong northerlies in the wake of the front may reach
Wind Advisory criteria along the immediate coastline tomorrow
morning into the early afternoon. Middle 30 to lower 40 degree dew
points...with mid to upper 70 afternoon warmth...will increase
fire weather concerns as daytime relative humidities plummet into
the low to mid 20 percentile through Wednesday. Offshore winds
weaken and return onshore Thursday. The next cold frontal passage
slated for Friday will not have much moisture to work with so
late week rain chances will be low. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

AVIATION...
A reinforcing cold front will be moving through the area later
tonight. Look for winds to increase and become quite gusty during
the day Tuesday. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail.  47

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/
Mainly a wind and temperature forecast for this afternoon`s
update. Starting at 06Z, short term guidance such as the HRRR and
RAP13, bring a wind shift into the northern zones of the forecast
area, shifting the winds out of the north/northeast. The coast
should see this wind shift by 10Z. The pressure gradient tightens
during this time frame, and as a result winds will pick up to 5 to
9 mph over land between 06 to 12Z. A secondary cold front
following the front that passed yesterday, will act to provide an
additional reinforcement of cooler air. Low temps this evening are
still expected to range in the 50s to low 60s along the coast,
while the effects of this secondary cold front will not truly be
felt until Tuesday. Model guidance has also trended cooler Tuesday
and Tuesday night, with radiational cooling anticipated with
these clear night skies, and therefore decided to lower temps by a
few degrees.

As the surface high shifts southeast, Monday night into Tuesday,
this tighter pressure gradient should cause an increase in wind
speeds throughout the afternoon Tuesday, keeping winds between
10-15 mph over land, with gusts to around 20 mph. Additionally,
as cooler air continues to advect in the region Tuesday, high
temperatures will struggle to make it out of the mid 70s. Tuesday
will also be the driest day this week, with min RHs between 20 to
25%. With these RH values and stronger winds over the area,
elevated fire weather conditions will be of concern. Tuesday night
into Wednesday will be the coolest night before the weekend, with
low temperatures plummeting into the low 40s near Bryan/College
Station to upper 50s along the coast near Galveston.

Highs again Wednesday will struggle to make it into the mid 70s. The
pressure gradient slackens Tuesday into Wednesday, and a stronger
region of high pressure scoots in from the northeast. Therefore,
fire weather conditions will be less of a threat Wednesday. Onshore
winds will return late Thursday as the area of high pressure
weakens. This will help to increase moisture over the region
Thursday afternoon, and by Friday PWs will range between 0.7 to
1.0 inches.

Timing of the frontal passage late in the week amongst the various
global models is still inconsistent. GFS is still a little faster
than the ECWMF, though the solutions of both have come closer
together in time. Progression of the front through SE TX looks to
occur late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Sunny skies
will become partly cloudy as a result of the front Friday
afternoon. The ECMWF also brings in a bit more precipitation out
ahead of the front than the GFS, late Friday into Saturday. In
terms of intensity, the ECMWF is providing the coolest solution in
comparison to the GFS and NAM. Remaining conservative in the
forecast for now, though leaning towards the ECMWF solution.
Saturday into Sunday, 850 temperatures range between 2 to 5 degree
Celsius, which is a touch on the colder side for this time of
year. Confidence remains low on just how strong this front will
be. Therefore, temperatures could trend cooler this weekend as the
models get a better handle on the airmass in the next few days. 08

&&

MARINE...
Winds over the waters are relatively light this afternoon and will
continue so into the evening as high pressure moves east of the
area. Winds should pick up overnight as a front moves through, and
are expected to reach advisory levels over the Gulf by morning. The
advisory begins a few hours before the threshold is forecast to be
met to cover the period of SCEC-level wind. The advisory carries
through Wednesday morning - the 0-20 nm zones may see a bit of a
lull in the afternoon, but with the expectation that winds will
exceed the advisory threshold again tomorrow night, chose to keep
one longer advisory.

Look for winds to diminish Wednesday as another high pressure center
moves across the region. As that high moves off to the east, onshore
flow should return on Thursday. The next front is expected to arrive
Friday, and looks strong enough to bring another period of strong,
gusty winds. 25

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry air will be reinforced by another cold front overnight. Unlike
today, winds behind the front will be considerably stronger. As a
result, we`ll be looking at an RH and wind combo that is near the
threshold for a red flag warning. Min RHs look to be in the
neighborhood of 25 percent (a touch lower farther inland, a smidge
higher at the coast), with winds also in the 15 mph ballpark and
gusts to around 20 mph. In addition to that, overnight recovery
looks decent, but not outstanding tonight, and even worse Tuesday
night. But, with all that said, we are fortunate to have generally
wetter than normal fuels. Outside of the 10 hour fuels, which are
more receptive to changes in RH, rain from Sunday morning will help
mitigate conditions. Because of that, will decide against going with
any fire weather headlines. However, those with more grassy fuels
should be aware of the dry air and winds expected, and understand
that fire may spread more rapidly than they might expect given the
recent rain.

Low humidity will persist deep into the week, until the return of
onshore winds on Thursday will begin to return moisture back to
Southeast Texas. Fortunately, high pressure drifting across the area
will keep winds lighter than we`ll see tomorrow. This will mitigate
fire weather concerns to some extent for Wednesday and Thursday.
25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      52  78  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              53  76  48  76  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            61  76  58  73  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for the
     following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CDT Wednesday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/47