Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Summary: The day was sunny, dry, and breezy. No rain. I didn't see any rain over the Houston, TX area, on the radar, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be mostly clear with some cirro and alto stratus clouds in the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong gusts. It felt very cool, during the early morning. It felt cool, during the mid-morning. It felt a little cool, during the late morning and night. It felt warm, during the afternoon and evening. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX, during anytime of the day. The low temperatures looked to be in the 50's with maybe some 40's and the high temps looked to be in the 70's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.
Houston, TX Storm Summary: No rain. I didn't see any rain over the Houston, TX area, on the radar, during anytime of the day. I didn't hear about any reports of flooding. I did hear reports of wildfires in the south and maybe north counties of the Houston, TX area, according to NOAA.
My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or storm damages. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, and maybe Katy, TX.
Thoughts: Wildfires in Houston, TX? I hope they don't become widespread and force people out of their homes like in California.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 190248 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 948 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .DISCUSSION... Not a whole lot of changes made on the evening update. Expect increasing high clouds overnight as a system approaches from the west, and also an increasing risk of low clouds and/or fog under a light wind field. Overnight low temperatures should range from the mid to upper 50s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast, and readings this low will not be seen again until Monday morning after the passage of the area`s next cold front. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ AVIATION... VFR for the remainder of the evening. Hazy skies from smoke moving in evening easterlies but it should be dispersed enough from the fires over Chambers and Jefferson Counties to not be of any significant impact to visibilities. Overnight calming of winds under mainly clear skies to allow a low level temperature inversion to form and create an environment conducive to interior fog. Anticipating more patchy shallow fog under the stout inversion with many (non-metro) hubs falling to around 4SM during the pre-dawn hours. Breezes wake up from the east with a developing late morning into afternoon few-sct cumulus field. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ DISCUSSION... The big concern today for weather has been the smoke generated from grass fires in Jefferson county along the Gulf coast. GOES 16 and radar have shown smoke plumes from these grass fires with the smoke reaching Galveston as well as parts of metro Houston. VAD wind profile from KHGX radar shows SE to E winds through 8000ft AGL which is helping transport the smoke towards the area. Winds are still rather light so mixing has not been able to disperse the smoke as much as with stronger winds. US Fish and Wildlife may start a prescribed burn to cut off the grass fires since they are unable to get fire crews out to extinguish the fires. Hopefully these fires are put out before the night time inversion sets up and traps smoke in the low levels. Patchy fog will be possible tonight with weak moisture return along the coast and calm winds. Hopefully the fog and smoke do not combine to create zero visibility issues in the morning. Going into the weekend, models have moisture return increasing especially on Friday with precipitable water values getting up to 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Latest upper level analysis has a weak shortwave ridge over the area which will be moving out tomorrow as a wave moves across the southern Rockies tonight. By Friday a stronger trough moves into the Pacific NW with ridging over the eastern Gulf. Given SW flow aloft on Friday with the increased moisture as warm front pushes north, forecast will go with 40-60 percent rain chances with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. A few storms Friday could be strong as CAPE pushes 1500 J/kg with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. Saturday SW flow aloft continues but no real vorticity max to support thunderstorm activity. Moisture axis over the area also shifts a bit to the east so looking at slightly lower rain chances Saturday for scattered showers and storms. There is still the possibility of a few strong/severe storms Saturday as CAPE may get above 2000 J/kg with steeper lapse rates ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Models are more progressive with the developing upper level trough Saturday night into Sunday. As a result GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are all faster with pushing the system across the area than previous runs. GFS ensemble runs at 12Z kept with a more progressive system with trough not cutting off as previous runs had been doing. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF are in better agreement so increased rain chances to 60-70 percent. Again there will be the threat for severe weather as the trough moves across but the strong large scale ascent may be slightly out of phase with the surface front. This may scale back the threat some but still enough instability and shear to support strong/severe storms. Moisture will be high enough to support heavy rainfall but storm motions should be fast enough that any flooding if at all will be localized and limited to the normal street/urban flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches looks good for the weekend but wouldn`t rule out isolated spots of 3 inches. Front moves through Sunday and clears out moisture for the start of the week. A deep trough then develops over the Great Lakes that sends a re-enforcing shot of cold air into the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday morning look to be in the 50s but if these forecast trends continue, the airmass could be colder and send temperatures into the 40s. Still plenty of time to wait and see but it could be another week with temperatures more like fall than summer. Overpeck MARINE... High pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressures over the southern Gulf of Mexico will produce an easterly flow across the coastal waters today. The gradient begins to tighten tonight and winds will increase. A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will persist through Saturday and a SCEC will likely be required over parts of the coastal waters. Water levels and tides are currently progged to exceed 3.0 feet Thursday afternoon and could exceed 3.5 feet on Friday near times of high tide. A cold front, and associated showers and thunderstorms, will cross the coastal waters on Sunday afternoon and a moderate to strong offshore flow will develop Sunday night and persist into the first half of next week. A reinforcing front is penciled in for Tuesday. Small craft advisories are likely behind both fronts. 47 FIRE WEATHER... Wildfires in Jefferson, Matagorda and Trinity Counties continue to show up on satellite imagery. Transport winds have veered to the southeast at 5-10kt and should continue that way until late evening. But late tonight they`re forecast to weaken and back to the east once again. Mixing heights will fall pretty quickly after sunset so smoke closer to the fires should start becoming confined closer to the ground. We should get pretty good mixing again by mid morning and lift/disperse whatever smoke (if any) continues. Moisture levels begin to increase tonight and increase significantly late Thursday and Friday as onshore winds strengthen. Rain chances will increase on Friday and should remain high through the weekend. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 59 85 65 83 69 / 0 10 10 50 30 Houston (IAH) 63 84 68 82 72 / 0 0 20 60 30 Galveston (GLS) 72 82 75 82 77 / 10 10 30 60 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 31/42
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